Oct 23 (2/4): No Sanctions if You Be Good, OK?

PC Drunken Friar

Trump speaking now…All sanctions lifted, unless Turkey does something else. This is a wonderful deal. 3 days of outbursts is worth it for this peace. If Turkey doesn’t hold true to their promise we will cripple them. We will do it to them. We have the best economy in our history. 3 weeks ago, people said this couldn’t be done. Well, I did it. People are saying I did the impossible.

Reverend

I’m out of the house now; do you happen to remember what the “something else” is?

Like, this thing is not over; Assad and the SDF have not negotiated a political settlement and the Kurds are losing (their?) land. Also, Turkey is demanding that the YPG units be split out from the SDF units (the Kurds being conveniently most of their military) based on them being terrorists. Meanwhile Trump is making noise about giving the Kurds the Syrian oil fields.

If there hadn’t just been actual violence for the last two weeks, we’d be calling this a volatile situation. That the TA thinks this is resolution strikes me as a bit of madness.

Seriously? America is just going to assign oil fields to an unpopular minority dedicated to freedom in the middle of what used to be the territory of a Ba’athist regime in the Middle East?

Bold move, I’ll give’em that.

PC Drunken Friar

He basically said…they better not do anything else bad or we will hit them hard

The only other thing Turkey might want to do right now is deal with the Kurds within their own borders. It’s highly doubtful we would try to intervene there (Would Trump describe it as sibling rivalry? Let’em fight it out for awhile?)

So it sounds like, once again, he is having a fake negotiation. The last set of TA negotiations with Turkey have ended with Turkey negotiating back something the Trump has just given them for the appearance of a negotiated settlement that is actually a win for Turkey.

“Now that you’ve gotten everything you wanted, you better stop!!”

That might be a reason for Turkey to make another move, as they’ll likely assess this as more bluster from a position of weakness and lack of resolve.

It’s not really speculation when you just watched it happen twice in a row.

 

 

 

 

 

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