Oct 29 (8/12): Your Hegemonic Stability Theory at Work

So basically, the closest thing there was to a theory of resolution was that the presence of armies associated with nation states would reduce the likelihood of violence because that states don’t want war between states.

That’s just entirely not what’s been happening on the ground though.

Warning: Graphic Content

Basically, bad reports that come out on the Twitters generally get confirmed a few hours later, and there are tons of videos of bad shit going around for every one one that goes mainstream.

[REDACTED COMMENTS: PLACEHOLDER]

DISCUSSION: QUESTIONS: IS THIS ACTUALLY AN INTERSTATE CONFLICT OR JUST PROXIES?

Well… it was. But now all the states are there too.

On Turkey’s side, you have the Turkish proxy militias, basically started as Syrian opposition militias but highly contaminated by militant jihadis. They’ve been fighting with the SDF of non-recognized but US backed Rojava and Assad’s Russian (and to a lesser extent Iranian) backed regime forces.

Nice proxy war. Great. Until the US pulled out.

Now Syrian troops are in the border fighting both the proxy militias and Turkish troops proper. AND Russians are in there patrolling the border even though the fighting continues and they’ve been hit too, though they officially deny it.

And now US troops are lurking.

The proxy war dragged the states into it. So here’s s a list:

States with ground forces in he region-regulars, not proxy militia:

  • Syria (Assad)
  • Turkey
  • Russia
  • US
  • and maybe a little Iran

Non (recognized) state fighters.

  • SDF
  • SNA (non-Turkish backed)
  • SNA (Turkish backed)

And the SNA (of which there are many militia of different degrees of coordination) has seen a spread of militant jihadism in their ranks. And some of that jihadism is ISIS flavored, and those guys don’t even want to win the war: They want war for its own sake (or, at least, until it turns into Armageddon)… which might be why they are videotaping themselves criming against first SDF forces, Kurdish civilians, and now (boldly) the Syrian regime forces and distributing them on the internet.

Does that make sense?

As for Putin’s play here… yeah, that’s interesting. I mean, Russia and Turkey are supposed to do joint patrols of a 10km strip along the Syrian-Turkish border any minute now… crazy, right?

The confusion and division in NATO with Europeans feeling their hands are tied has to be seen by Putin as an unequivocal good though, yeah?

 

 

 

 

 

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