Nov 12 (4/5): Shots Fired! Nothing Happens

Shots Fired! Little Changes

  • Turkish forces patrolling the Kobanî on have fired upon civilians perhaps leaving four dead.
  • This attack does not appear to have led to an escalation of the conflict.

RUDAW: Turkish convoy kills protesters in Northern Syria: SDF

How is this possible?: It continues to appear, to me anyway, that until the Wednesday meeting, things are more positioning for leverage for that negotiation without blowing anything up to make negotiation possible.

Discussion (Me):

What happens after a White House meeting or if Trump even decides to care is, as we know by now, anybody’s guess.

Oddly enough, it appears the hope now is for him to not care. Or cares in only the simplest terms and not about the right things. Basically, a constellation of caring and not caring that provides other WH officials the leeway and discretion to do what they want to do. However one feels on the issue of Syria, this is actually kinda a terrifying political arrangement here in DC. But whatever. That’s a Black Box right now.

But there is reason to believe people are all over this one and at least have a strategy for managing information with Trump, so we’ll see. @barbed wire Bob posted a theory in the ME thread that WH officials would try to convince Trump that Erdogan wanted to bully him. I had come to the same possibility as well. Speculation, but I expect those single point power point presentations about oil. Not even ISIS. Oil. Or more specifically, “people who want to steal the oil from us.” And then only elaborate when he angrily demands the information and he’ll feel like he figured out. Maybe not exactly that, but something like it. Even fighting ISIS doesn’t have that simple one-on-one mano-a-mano angle of him trying to steal the oil from you.

Another possible scenario is that Trump is irritated about the situation and maybe Turkey for coveting the oil. Maybe he’s truculent and distant. And then Mike or Mark or maybe one of their aides says something to another aid or to Erdogan himself something to the effect of: OK, now you’ve seen him and see how it is. Perhaps before you thought his disposition was one you could exploit. I am here to assure you that that is no, longer the case, if it ever was.”

Or Erdogan could work him into a frenzy about something else, about this situation as it is or speculation on something else that gets Trump jumping up and down.

It’s Trump. We don’t know. But there are definitely people on it and two two executive branches have suggested to us that things are in good hands. Which m, as per above, is not great, but in foreign pokicy and international relations, we are accustomed to trying to discern what states will do without being able to see into the specific political machinations, hence the aforementioned term: “Black Box.”

What happens after a White House meeting or if Trump even decides to care is, as we know by now, anybody’s guess.

Oddly enough, it appears the hope now is for him to not care. Or cares in only the simplest terms and not about the right things. Basically, a constellation of caring and not caring that provides other WH officials the leeway and discretion to do what they want to do. However one feels on the issue of Syria, this is actually kinda a terrifying political arrangement here in DC. But whatever. That’s a Black Box right now.

But there is reason to believe people are all over this one and at least have a strategy for managing information with Trump, so we’ll see. [USER=58664]@barbed wire Bob[/USER] posted a theory in the ME thread that WH officials would try to convince Trump that Erdogan wanted to bully him. I had come to the same possibility as well. Speculation, but I expect those single point power point presentations about oil. Not even ISIS. Oil. Or more specifically, “people who want to steal the oil from us.” And then only elaborate when he angrily demands the information and he’ll feel like he figured out. Maybe not exactly that, but something like it. Even fighting ISIS doesn’t have that simple one-on-one mano-a-mano angle of him trying to steal the oil from you.

Another possible scenario is that Trump is irritated about the situation and maybe Turkey for coveting the oil. Maybe he’s truculent and distant. And then Mike or Mark or maybe one of their aides says something to another aid or to Erdogan himself something to the effect of: OK, now you’ve seen him and see how it is. Perhaps before you thought his disposition was one you could exploit. I am here to assure you that that is no, longer the case, if it ever was.”

Or Erdogan could work him into a frenzy about something else, about this situation as it is or speculation on something else that gets Trump jumping up and down.

It’s Trump. We don’t know. But there are definitely people on it and two two executive branches have suggested to us that things are in good hands. Which m, as per above, is not great, but in foreign pokicy and international relations, we are accustomed to trying to discern what states will do without being able to see into the specific political machinations, hence the aforementioned term: “Black Box.”

But people are pissed, though.

Coverage:

Considerations:

ISIS is canvassing in the Deir ez-Zur region:

Ground Conditions: Turkish Exacerbation

IT: Erdogan’s Plan to Control the Rojava Water (google translate)

ISIS Situation Could Explode: Camps & Attacks

It’s worth mentioning here again: ISIS wants war.

Israeli Help:

RUDAW: Does Israel’s advocacy for the Kurds do more harm than good?

Interestingly, perhaps amazingly, since the Iraqi Kurdistan President mouthing off and pleasing nobody, Kurdistan has kept low and out, despite being goaded by Turkish attacks. Kurdistan is not a strong and not even an autonomous state, but if it’s not apparent by now, that Kurds that have survived can fight.

And the US military continues to rattle sabres until some actual policy made, which strikes me as more than reasonable.

US troops at Syria base say they’ll keep pressure on ISIS

Picture worth 1,000 word heading that article.

The Kurds aren’t the only ones there who can fight. We’ll see what happens.

candylandriots

I have this awful feeling that people are going to be reading about these few weeks in history books 100 years from now.

Reverend

It’s tough, I admit, and hopefully we’ll be discussing possibilities and concerns for the Erdogan-Trump meeting of the minds somewhere.

But until then, rest assured, we are sending our best man.

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