OK, so I found and watched the Pentagon press conference. This is amazing.

tl;dr: They clearly and intentionally state that the pre-withdrawal mission has not changed, and emphasized their “shoulder to shoulder” relationship with SDF.

It’s incredible. This everything make sense, except it’s incoherent with regard to anything Trump said.

I’ll list highlights.

• 00:00 The Pentagon uses Periscope???
• 02:33 Hoffman from SecDef introduces Read Admiral Byrne for them both to take questions.
• 03:10 withdrawal from Kobani is going fine.
• 03:23 Mission continues to be defeat of ISIS.
• 03:32 “shoulder to shoulder with our SDF partners”
• 03:45 Specifically clarifies that the mission is not to secure the oil fields, the mission is the defeat of ISIS; securing oil fields is subordinate task to that mission.
• 04:08 Oil fields had been pumping out 45k barrels a day. [So now we know where that $45m number came from. Seemed random at the time…]
• 04:28 Reemphasizes SDF role in securing oil fields.
• 05:05 Responding to Q if really this is about keeping oil from Russia and Syria, Hoffman emphasizes how much money this could be for ISIS as before.
• 07:00 When POTUS said ISIS defeated, he meant the physical caliphate, not ISIS as an insurgency.
• 09:10 In general, cease fire holding despite skirmishes.
• 09:24 Hoffman: We’re still supporting ISIS, but won’t take reporters bait to say still “arming.”
• 10:00 Begin long re-elaboration in oil fields and hownits about not fighting ISIS and not fighting Russia and Syria.
• This all sounds like they’re using “oil fields” like a codewords when adults talk about sex in front of a child.
• 12:30 Hoffman, answering question about legal basis of taking oil: Everyone knows who we are and where we are.
• 15:00 Hoffman: please stop trying to get me to say this is about denying access to Syria and Russia even though that’s what State said.
• 16:30 Q: So why mechanized forces? A: Because they work really well and the commander wanted them.
• 17:30 Q: yeah, but why mechanized tonfight ISIS? A: To make ISIS go away.
• 18:30 We don’t know if any SDF stayed in the safe zone—not our job.
• 19:20 No, we don’t know how many people we’re keeping there or for how long.
• 20:15 SDF in charge of ISIS detainees; countries of origin should take them back where applicable.
• 21:15 voice of contempt in not answering the question of if Trump is breaking the law in ordering the taking of the oil fields. We have a legal mission there, so none of this should be surprising since it’s the same mission it’s been the last four years and nothing has changed.
• 22:25 Byrnes emphasizes we’re doing this. It alone but with our SDF partners.
• 23:10 Aware of allegations of alleged war crimes (he said alleged two different ways) by Turkey and will look into it and if find anything forward the concerns and info Turkey for investigation.
• 24:10 Refers them to State Department.
• Stuff about budget and Southeast Asia.
• 29:10 Q: “Can you translate that into what does that actually looks like? Now? On the ground?” A: Byrne: “My initial reaction is, they’re in the fight. Shoulder to shoulder. SDF. US forces. Defeat ISIS. That’s the mission.”
• 30:40 Sure, Trump said he’d pull out. But he’s also expressed other underlying themes. Like defeating ISIS. So we’re committed to that, so we’re committed to staying for that mission.
• 31:25 Byrne: No I don’t know how much oil is being produced, I’m all about SDF. Shoulder to shoulder. Fight ISIS and don’t let oil go to ISIS.
• Stuff about Trump’s “interest” in military military justice system.

Transcript: 

Department of Defense Press Briefing by Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs Jonathan Rath Hoffman and Navy Rear Admiral William D. Byrne Jr., Vice Director, Joint Staff

Sure, why not…

PENTAGON SPOKESMAN HOFFMAN SAYS U.S. IS STILL WORKING WITH SDF FIGHTERS, CONTINUING TO PROVIDE THEM WITH ABILITY AND SUPPORT TO FIGHT AGAINST ISLAMIC STATE

PENTAGON SPOKESMAN HOFFMAN SAYS U.S. IS STILL WORKING WITH SDF FIGHTERS, CONTINUING TO PROVIDE THEM WITH ABILITY AND SUPPORT TO FIGHT AGAINST ISLAMIC STATE

Why are they yelling?

Marciano490

What reactions are you seeing among our NATO allies to Turkey’s aggressions? Are the European countries just sitting back to see how everything plays out, or are there signs of frustration and regret?

Reverend

Silent horror with rumblings that something should be done?

I haven’t really been playing the foreign newspaper game, but there is unhappiness in a lot of European states.

And Marcon of France just said Europe and NATO need to get together for a post US world.

But I don’t get the sense that anybody knows what to do. I mean, where exactly would NATO insert itself into this?

Maybe I should poke around the international news a bit… but interesting things keep happening.

European states may also feel they need to figure out what the US is doing before taking action or making a statement. Like, would any position they take be for or against US policy? They’d need to know that.

And that might be impossible in the near future. Like, definitionally impossible.

Marciano490

What’s the process of booting Turkey from NATO? I know the Russians and Turkeys have historical antipathy (hi Potemkin!), but is there any chance an unNATO’d Turkey allies with Putin?

The geniuses that put together NATO didn’t include anything in the constitution to remove a member.

I guess it’s never come up before, and now people are irritated. Constitutional amendments require unanimous consent.

Marciano490

Given human history, nevermind European history, that seems bizarrely naive. What would happen if Germany invaded France for a change?

Reverend

Wow. I hadn’t even thought of it in that historical context…

When you put it that way, it just sounds stupid.

Back and Forth Fighting

As Kyrie Irving, formerly of the Boston Celtics tells us, the back and forth nature is the hardest part of the game. It probably actually makes more sense in this context here than in basketball. Like, way more.

Allies: Who Needs Them No That ISIS is 100% Defeated?

There’s no point in starting an ISIS thread since the US has defeated them, but if we hadn’t and there were, I’d probably post this short Tweet thread about jihadi forces in Africa there:

I started being undated this on my Twitter feed. Figured I’d check it out.

I like it. It’s a lot like non-Kurdish comedy. It’s good.

This.

Wow.

So, Everybody Knows What We’re All Doing, Right?

I haven’t really been posting things like NYTimes pieces because they’re generally behind (for obvious reasons).

It appears though that there is more and more discussion of the politics of this on the US end in the major media. If anyone sees any of that and wants to post it, that’d be great. Especially since I’ve burned through all my free visits on pretty much everything like NYT, WaPo, Economist, etc. 

The Economist: Emmanuel Macron warns Europe: NATO is becoming brain-dead

America is turning its back on the European project. Time to wake up, the French president tells The Economist

Democrats Demand Stuff:

ABC News: Democrats demand Syria plan from Trump

“Given the dynamics in northern Syria following your reckless decision to withdraw troops and permit Turkey’s invasion, and the continued threat posed by ISIS, we ask that you submit to Congress a comprehensive plan for Syria not later than December 6, 2019,” the letter reads.

Yeah, that’ll work

Meanwhile, in other negotiations…

View: https://twitter.com/arisroussinos/status/1192477753024634880?s=21

People trying to figure out what’s been going on and what happened today around Ain Issa:

KurdisCat: Fighting between SDF and Turkish troops in Ayn Issa, Kurdistan of Syria (Google Translate)

Poor Idlib:

To round out the the fronts (northwest, central north, east)—Idlib continues to just get fucked.

The SNA hold it now. After the SNA kicked the SDF out. After the SDF kicked ISIS out. After ISIS kicked Assad out… I don’t read much further back than that.  

A curious place for both sides-ism. I’m not sure what this really means here, I don’t think. Maybe it’s a translation issue-maybe a blessing on both sides? People do that.

The US position may be “evolving” again… or we just don’t know what it is and it’s wicked confusing. Maybe a little of column A and a little of B?

Hard to confirm, as people cut and paste some reports in social media (We know this, right?  :

This is coming after reports over the last day or so that Russia has a deal to lease the Rmelan airfield in the northeast for 49 years; basically similar to the lease they have on Hmeymim airfield in western Syria. Russian cargo planes have been coming into Rmelan airfield and unloading rockets and shit.

If the US leaves the northeast to Russia, that obviously is enormous.

“Update” on USA’s position in Syria:

Remember the stuff about confusion as to whether or not we’re supporting the Kurds or trying to reestablish a new SDF to secure the east?

Why not both?!

Do you think they know their picture is being taken?

So, anyway, that clears up nothing. But just in case anyone didn’t get the message that one way or another, we’re back, SpecOps OIR retweeted this:

Reading the tea leaves, though, they also had a Throw Back Thursday Tweet about… remember what I posted up thread about the southern border crossing to Iraq?

So we’re conducting international relations through #TBT Tweets now. For realz.

I guess POTUS conducts most policy by Tweet. So two can play at that game!!

Anyway, this is consistent with the actual operators in the military leaving all of the possible foreign policy directions this might take (depending who wins the infra-Trump administration power struggle) open.

Among those options is the near total abandonment of the Kurds and the existing SDF if they can get that southern border crossing working. But it’s still hard to see giving up the strategic northern crossing, especially if they’re worried about Iranian influence.

The actual military appears to be doing a fucking bang-up job of managing conflicting missions that are in tension with one another. I’m constantly in awe at their continued ability to hit the overlapping parts of the Venn diagram of policies while maintaining operational flexibility. They must be furious.

Basically, this guy, Aidan James, joined the SDF to fight ISIS and is being punished for being an anti-Turkey terrorist.

Independent: Aidan James: British fighter who battled Isis in Syria jailed for four years

Aidan James, one of several British volunteers who fought with the Kurdish YPG against Isis in Syria, has been jailed in first completed prosecution of its kind

He was sentenced to four years imprisonment for attending a place used for terrorist training

Interesting that one of these—first successful prosecution in UK—cases is actually breaking one way or another now, though it could be a coincidence.

It looks like the jury wanted to thread the needle and convicted him for being at a camp that had PKK personnel present, but not the charge for being with YPG in and of itself.

That’s a critical legal distinction for the international status of both the fighters and the umbrella organizations.

Dani Ellis

Marie Claire UK has put out an interview with one of the women on the ground, Dani Ellis, with Rojava that is a very good follow on Twitter and to whom I have linked before.

Marie Claire.uk: Frontline Syria with a Brit volunteer: ‘Young women are the forefront of the resistance’

I came here to join a group called make Rojava Green Again, which is an ecological group. I had studied engineering at university for six years and came to work here as an engineer as well. I was really inspired by the society, particularly how they had defeated ISIS, and that it was female led. The final straw that brought me here was learning about the death of Anna Campbell, a British fighter for the YPJ. She was a friend of a friend and hearing about her story of coming and fighting was so inspiring.

More fighting in the villages around Ain Issa today, with the obvious eye on the M4.

Here is a good four Tweet mini-thread* on some of the fighting, along with pics and videos.

*the last few past the one I’m posting; the person has some “Twitter functionality issues.” Also, that’s not a tank on fire in the most recent video, it’s a technical, but whatever, that’s not really the point, eh?

The Russkies have been active in today’s engagement.

So there’s a wonderful cynically humorous understatement to a lot of the observations coming out of the conflict…

Anyway, the battles wage while the larger positioning (and posturing) going on. Mainstream media is still getting around to quibbling about statements from the government that the cease fire has basically held, despite not just the fighting but the changing of territory.

Meanwhile, one of our own federal agencies has weighed in basically to the contrary… in Iraq.

There is a noticeable uptick in buzz about the U.N. and the international community with respect to Iraq, which underscores the relative silence on Syria.

Tal Tamer: Heavy Weapons

Over around Tel Tamr (east of Ain Issa down the M4), Turkish forces shelled villages in the area using heavy weapons and drones.

Total “activity” seems to be down based on the chatter. From what I’m seeing, it suggests that the introduction of tanks to the battle field, as one side has been reinforced  with Turkish armor and the others Syrian Arab Army armor… people seem to be advancing with more caution, perhaps?