OK, so I haven’t really posted in the movements on the ground since last week when I was overcome with disgust that it looked like Russia was going to just let Turkish forces run roughshod over northern Syria.

I am not Vladimir Putin.

Well, I’m not Vladimir Putin in a couple of ways.

Also: Not as ruthless. Now, having said the nice things…

So here’s what actually happened. Though keep in mind we don’t know what kinds of deals Assad and Erdogan actually have with Putin. But his influence in the ground is both immense and subtle—kinda in a godfather kind of way in the use of “indirect” violence.

So, the cease fire came to an end during which Assad moved SAA units into position along the Turkish-Syria border, and then Russian and Turkish units jointly patrolled a 10km deep swath of Turkey’s “safe zone” and Russia reported that all Kurdish YPG had withdrawn, and now Russia would police… something.

Turkey promptly shelled an SAA position. And Russia did nothing. WTF?

In fact, a Russian vehicle got hit too, which was witnessed and caught on video. Russia denied it. W.T.F.?

So that SAA unit and maybe some others, having expected air and artillery support from Russia was… surprised. And, possibly against orders, they fucking left, which is totally reasonable.

But then they went back later. Unclear what changed, but Turkey didn’t attack them again.

Meanwhile, the ground fighting between the SDF and Turkish backed SNA militias continued in the middle of the border area from the Tel Abiad area to the Serikanyie/Ras al-Ayn area. The fighting in this region has basically gone on continuously through both cease fires with differing levels of Turkish artillery and air support, with the territory held by Turkey gradually growing southward as they head towards the M4 highway which is the artery of all of northern Syria and connects east to west.

Nobody on the ground really understands what the US is doing, but the chatter can roughly be summarized as: “Who’s driving this army, Stevie Wonder?”

But it looks like the plan wasn’t to just let Turkey go HAM.

Since then, the fighting has continued in the same areas, but Turkey’s support hasn’t been quite as strong. No more shelling of Assad’s troops stationed on the border has been reported.

Also, and here’s the kicker: Turkey handed back over to Assad 18 SAA hostages that Turkish backed jihadi militias (confirmed jihadi through the videos and pics they take of themselves because they’re assholes) had captured and turned over to Turkey.

The SNA are pissed.

Like, the jihadis feel hurt and betrayed. Poor jihadis. Dozens deserted their units over this. Poor, poor jihadis.

‘course… they didn’t know what was coming next. Which is happening now. Which is, now that Assad’s forces are in place across eastern Syria, the SDF and the SAA-backed by Russian heavy weapons-are fucking the SNA up. And the SDF and SAA appear to be fighting the SNA in the west too which hasn’t been as active for the SDF lately (for obvious reasons). Syrian jihadi social media channels are apparently full of people whining about SDF units being seen in areas that the SNA has occupied for ages. Or so some of the SDF fighters taunting them on Twitter claim.

So how will this shake out? Unclear.

And that’s not even addressing the US situation and plan.

But basically Russia has played three sides of this at once, and now everyone is reliant on and in thrall to its unexercised power in the region. Like, peace keepers usually implicitly rely on the acquiescence of others for their “power,” but if push comes to shove they’re in trouble and have to withdraw. Russia has established that they have final call on who gets to kill whom, and with minimal units engaged and everyone is afraid to shoot at them. They have massive influence with little cost.***

Oh, I almost forgot: However this unfolds, one of the new starting conditions is that Assad, Putin’s client, now has units all across Syria, including areas previously solely controlled by the SDF, and is in much stronger position to consolidate territorial control of Syria. Syria and the SDF/SDC (or whatever acronym is being used for the political organization) still have no political agreement for what happens when their (temporary?) alliance in resisting Turkish invasion ends. So all of Syria is in play.

Well, all Syria with the possible exception of the far eastern region where we have the Bradleys of the US 4-Brigade 118 Infantry Regiment doing donuts in the desert. Or something.

And now also the northeast, coincidentally near the airport and the border crossing to Iraq…

Turns out there was oil there too. In that vital, strategic location.

***The US could technically speaking reassert massive amounts of control over the situation simply by reclaiming the air space over eastern Syria. Russia hasn’t taken the bold move of making a grab for it, so it’s been left to Turkey.

The people on the ground are acutely aware of this. A few days ago, the SDF affiliates types were pushing hard the message that the US still owns the air space and sure, fine, we’ll forget about the betrayal all’s good just please shut down Turkish air reconnaissance and support. The degree to which they tried to emphasize that Rojava was still a natural friend of the west was heartbreaking.

They sorta gave up on that though and stared pushing the, “Hey! Did you know there are Christians here?? Look!! Christian towns to be defended!”

Like, they’re not quite sure who in the world is paying attention to them, but they are pretty attentive to our world.

I really enjoyed seeing this in my Twitter feed:

I never used to like Twitter. But back then, I never knew you could scan through the Likes of pro-liberal (small-L) society guerrilla freedom fighters.

In response to me noting that the protesters in Baghdad are responding to tear gas and live fire with fireworks and it’s basically awesome.

We have better TV.

So is this going to be the Arab Spring?

Darnell’s Son

I don’t think you get how seasons work.

Reverend

Imagine what would happen in America if Trump turned off Netflix.

So is this going to be the Arab Spring?

Reverend

That’s a question that’s being asked a lot.

Just a bit outside

I just want to say thanks Rev for all the updates.

Reverend

Hey, thanks.

Enjoy this SDF Hype Video, just for you.

<DELETED TWEET>[Edit: Screen shot. This turns out to matter later.]

I could watch these all day.

Literally. There’s lots of them.

[Edit: goddammit.]

New Blood

Since I’ve recently been informed that there are probably people reading all this after all and it’s not just me rocking back and forth in the corner with a few friends to attend to me…

Rojava is recruiting!!

Now how much would you pay??

So anyway, there’s crazy shit going on basically right this moment. Russia may have gotten Turkey to punk the militias they’d been backing…

One way or another, apparently the SDF now in combination with SAA troops with heavy Russian weaponry are suddenly kicking the shit out of the jihadi militias all over Syria (east and west areas).

The SNA/FSA militias have been caught off guard by this development. There is lots of chatter about them complaining on social media that Turkey has fucked them and was never actually committed to their territorial goals after all. (Assholes.)

As best as I can tell…

you know how we have people who go on to other teams’ message boards and then come back and make fun of them? Well, it seems that that’s basically what increasingly has been going on during this conflict as social media channels used have stabilized.

Along with the inter-militia troll war, civilians in some of the Turkish occupied towns (e.g. Sarikaniye/Ras al-Ayn) are agitating over social media to take back their homes.

It’s on. Whatever it is.

Just cause.

I haven’t been updating on the adventures of the Free Burma Rangers, but one got killed.

I’ve been following them since the beginning of the conflict, and I feel like I should share their video messages about this incident on basic principle.

Each of them are two parters-each Tweet should show both, I hope:

Confession: When I first found Eubanks, I was deeply suspicious that he was totally full of shit.

But really, I was just late to the party:

FOXNews: Former Special Forces soldier who saved 6-year-old Iraqi girl on front lines says God was on his side

barbed wire Bob

LA Times article on the Eubank and the rescue. He seems like the real deal.

There was a woman sprawled on her face. Dead,” Eubank said. “A baby, all shot up. Dead. Near them, two old people. Dead. And then you realize all those lumps of rags were kids. Dead, dead, dead.”

All had been shot, he said, by Islamic State snipers cutting down those fleeing the hell their neighborhood had become as Iraqi forces fought to dislodge the jihadis from what had been the militant group’s Iraqi capital.

Then, in the distance, Eubank noticed movement among a group of corpses clustered before a wall pocked by bullets: A half-naked toddler stumbled over the bodies; a girl of about 5 peeked from under the hijab of her dead mother; propped up against the wall, a wounded man waved for help.

The sniper fire continued, and the the survivors were 150 yards away. Eubank and some Iraqi troops quickly came up with a plan: Eubank would try to rescue the girl

Los Angeles Times: For former U.S. Special Forces operative turned aid worker, a dramatic rescue in Mosul

The NYTimes running an Op-Ed written by a woman on the ground in northern Syria.

NYTimes: ‘The Bombs Are Drawing Close’

Our village was built to create a peaceful place for women in Syria who have fled war and other hardships. But now our futures are full of danger.

By Fatima Sebah Neisan

Ms. Neisan is a resident of the autonomous women’s village of Jinwar.

Members of the Kurdish community protested in Paris last month against the Turkish invasion of Rojava, where the Jinwar women’s village is located.Credit…Christophe Petit Tesson/EPA, via Shutterstock

Many guests once visited us at the autonomous women’s village called Jinwar in northern Syria: journalists, politicians, friends from all over the world. They got to know us, our village and our daily lives. They saw the houses of clay in which we lived together; the school where our children studied Kurdish; the center for natural medicine, which was supposed to open soon; our communal bakery; our chickens, peacocks and dogs; the trees we planted in our garden.

Now all of this is under direct threat from Turkey. Our village sits less than three miles from the border. The bombs are drawing close. Military planes and drones have been crisscrossing the region. Turkish-backed jihadist groups are reportedly being positioned just across the border, threatening to kill the “infidels” on the other side. These forces continue to advance toward Jinwar from the west, ignoring the cease-fire.

Our daily life together has been interrupted. Everything we have built up is in danger of being destroyed. We were forced to leave our homes, not knowing whether we would be back in a few days, or whether we would never return. We don’t know what will come next or when our life will be able to return to normal. But even though we have had to find another safe place because of the ongoing attacks, we will never give up on Jinwar.

Before the Turkish invasion, Jinwar offered a sanctuary to women from all over northeast Syria and beyond — Kurds, Arabs, Yezidis. Some of our husbands were killed by ISIS; others of us left abusive relationships to live in Jinwar. Here was a place where women were able to live communally and autonomously, to raise and educate our children free of male influence. Jinwar was just one small part of the societal revolution taking place across northeast Syria — known to us as Rojava — where women are organizing autonomously in every city, creating alternative ways of life based on the principles of communal living, ecological thinking and a cooperative economy.

Turkey and its proxies have targeted women. In Kurdish regions already under Turkish occupation, there are reports of forced prostitution and trafficking and kidnapping of women for forcible marriage. During this invasion, Turkey’s jihadist proxies have already beaten and executed a leading female politician, Hevrin Khalef, and abducted and abused female fighters. Turkey’s occupation of other regions of northern Syria will mean the same brutal exploitation for women here.

We have already known danger once; our village was built to create a peaceful place for women who have fled war and other hardships. But now our futures are full of danger as well.

In the weeks since the invasion, we have all scattered to different places, villages farther from the border. But now the shelling is drawing close to these villages too. Just last week, there were reports of three civilians killed in shelling close to Jinwar.

Back in Jinwar, when we woke up in the morning, we knew that we were safe and that the other women were close. Now I cannot sleep at night. My heart is always beating fast these days; I am afraid of the noise of the shelling. Everyone helps one another, but we also suffer one another’s pain. I don’t want to hear of any more friends who have died.

Our village came alive from dry, empty earth. Now it has fallen quiet once again.

We have had to leave behind our peacocks, our dogs, the garden where we worked together, the songs we shared together in front of the kitchen. We have left behind our dreams. I only hope that one day we can come back for them.

Fatima Sebah Neisan is a resident of the autonomous women’s village of Jinwar whose husband was killed by the Islamic State.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.

Color me surprised.

The major media sources have been progressing very cautiously on this issue and been reporting conservatively, but major media are now reporting that there is evidence of use of chemical weapons (white phosphorous), but also explaining why this has not been confirmed yet.

Newsweek: WHITE PHOSPHORUS MELTS CHILDREN’S FLESH—BUT NO GOVERNMENT WANTS TO INVESTIGATE, AND THE U.S. KEEPS USING IT, TOO

The U.N.-backed Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) previously confirmed it was aware of the allegations against Turkey and said it was “collecting information with regard to possible use of chemical weapons.”

However, a spokesperson since told Newsweek it was not investigating, but merely “monitoring the situation.” And The Times of London reported on Sunday that investigators from the OPCW are not only not investigating, but are also refusing to take skin samples taken from civilian casualties suspected of being burned by white phosphorus, arguing the cases fall beyond their remit.

It means that the tissue samples taken by Kurdish medical teams and transferred to Ibril in northern Iraq for analysis will be left to denigrate in refrigerators.

“Nobody wants this to be investigated”

Specialists at the OPCW told the London newspaper, on condition of anonymity, that they were approached by a number of embassies from NATO countries to not get involved.

“Nobody wants this to be investigated because of the answers that might come out,” Bretton-Gordon told Newsweek. After 23 years in the British Army’s chemical warfare division, he has spent the last eight years working with groups such as the OPCW, the ICRC and HRW, among others in Syria, helping medics treat victims of chemical weapons attacks. He has also helped these agencies develop new mechanisms for collecting evidence.

“I think one of the things people are worried about is that Turkey is responsible for this and Turkey is a NATO ally,” he said.

A doctor treats an injured man in Qamishlo hospital in Ras al-Ayn, Hasakeh province, October 2019.

I’m like 98% certain this is not what NATO is for.

Also, the Newsweek guys have been having like a week long high-five fest mocking everyone for thinking Newsweek was defunct. They’re really having a grand time of it since they broke the story of the Baghdadi operation… and now people are realizing they know way more about what’s going on on the ground there than anybody else.

I must confess, I am among those who are surprised. Newsweek?

[Edit: I feel awful about saying this now. 🙂 }

Anti-Turkey propaganda from a man with an Interpol notice out on him wanted by a NATO state for crimes against the government:

If you’re regime is inconsistent with Enes Fucking Kanter and considers people like that a threat, maybe it’s not a regime worth investing in, yeah?

That’s like state theory 101. And propping up a failed project has dubious moral value.

Plus, Enes Kanter rules. I’m so glad he’s on the Celtics.

Celtic Pride FTW.

teddywingman

That is a disturbing clip. The American flags with that giant pump jack as the backdrop… profound.

[REDACTED COMMENTS: PLACEHOLDER]

BRIEF DIGRESSION ON THE EAST INDIA COMPANY

Reverend

This is brilliant. And I see it now.

Trump doesn’t want to be president. He wants to be the Pirate King. His whole fucking presidency makes sense now.

barbed wire Bob

Like Clive, Trump is a sociopath but unlike Clive, Trump is incompetent. At this stage of the game I don’t know if that’s good or bad.

Reverend

Reverend

Unfortunately, the flags are tactically necessary depart the grotesque optics. Which underscores the profundity you mention.

In other news:

Update on Trump’s withdrawal of American troops from the region:

In addition to the mechanized infantry unit now deployed at Deir ez-Zur to guard our oil, we’re setting up what appears to be three small bases at Qamishli in the east on the Turkish border. Oh, and we sent some troops to our base south of Kobanî at the west end of the conflict area that we had never actually fully abandoned.

So basically, if the territory in Syria that was not controlled by Assad from before this conflict is a triangle, we have concentrations of forces at the strategic locations closest to each of the three angles of the triangle (I indicate them with “X”s).

We’re not leaving.

UPDATE:

Reports coming out that Turkish forces are hitting medical stations and health workers.

Reverend

Welp, this is disgusting. Was fun while it lasted…

This sounds super bad:

tl;dr version:

This may have all been a shell game between Russia, Turkey, and Syria to force SDF into assimilation with SAA without a negotiated political solution to basically neuter them.

We fucked’em.

About that generous offer from Assad…

From the Yeah I Didn’t See That Happening files.

There really is a lot of bullshit going on. And it’s… I can’t believe I’m saying this, but from where I’m stan- er, sitting, very far away, the only way I can see what’s going on, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, but through Twitter. And I only just learned to use Twitter and frankly I’m not very good at it.

But yeah, this cease fire?

Kurdistan24: Thousands of civilians flee Turkish attacks despite ceasefire deal

According to Nicholas A. Heras, a Middle East security analyst at the Washington-based Center for a New American Security, Russia is “acting in bad faith and will allow Turkey to continue to expand as a message to the SDF and the United States that Moscow calls the shots in Syria and that Trump cannot hold Syrian oil with the support of the SDF.”

He also warned Turkey is not satisfied with a limited enclave it earlier seized during its attacks on the SDF in northeast Syria.

<side eye emoji>

Assad Calling on SDF to Join Syrian Arab Army

SAA is calling on SDF units to join the SAA. is this part of an attempt to use the crisis to consolidate control among the Syrian factions, possibly as an implied condition of conducting a defense?

By and large the SDF fighter response, those on Twitter anyway, is roughy, “Fuck you; defend your own positions first.”

What was once considered long term progress on the ground being undone, in fact.