Here’s a taste of the cease fire (video):

And there’s more. And more war criming. Everything from real ugliness to just some shit like Turkish militias blindfolding a bunch of captives in the back of a truck and forcing them to make animal sounds. All kinds of shit. And it’s happening outside the safe zone too.

David Eubank of the Free Burma Rangers (humanitarian team) confirms that Turkey is just firing on whomever.

It’s not a massive onslaught, of which Turkey is obviously capable of. Just a nice steady daily probing and pushing…

Edit: It’s believed by some that Turkey wants to take control of the M4 highway which makes pretty much all the sense.

Turkey is apparently advancing in some places. The Phase 3 they’ve mentioned of extending the safe zone to 100 km is something to keep an eye on.

That makes zero agreements Turkey has abided by in this conflict, including the promise not to advance on US forces in Kobanî like three weeks ago.

Also, others on the ground have seen the US driving around and wondering where the heck they’re going at any point. Along with Assad’s SAA having to withdraw in some locations and it being unclear what the hell the Russians are doing (What did Erdogan and Putin discuss in Sochi?), there’s a lot of confusion on the ground as to what exactly is happening.

One way or another, the defenses against Turkey are not being enforced, at least in many places.

 

“At least the SAA has our back.”

Video of the SAA leaving the front. I guess there are some who are… not leaving? That’s someone, maybe?

The Kurds must be freaking out. Not sure what Assad is trying to get out of this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I guess those here, as we don’t have an appropriate Trump thread for it—maybe it’s telling that there is no general TA foreign policy thread?

Newsweek: TRUMP IGNORED SYRIA EXIT OPTIONS THAT COULD HAVE KEPT RUSSIA AT BAY, NSC OFFICIAL SAYS

TRUMP IGNORED SYRIA EXIT OPTIONS THAT COULD HAVE KEPT RUSSIA AT BAY, NSC OFFICIAL SAYS

In the weeks leading up to President Donald Trump’s decision to exit Syria, his National Security Council staff had been preparing and presenting a variety of plans for an orderly withdrawal, a National Security Council official told Newsweek. The goal was to avoid a violent rush to fill a power vacuum opened by a sudden U.S. exit. These plans were abandoned completely by Trump in favor of an immediate retreat after a call with his Turkish counterpart. Within days of the decision, U.S. troops were handing over strategic positions to Russian forces.

. . .

More upsetting to many of those Newsweek spoke to than the Syria withdrawal itself was the way in which it was conducted, with the president ignoring advisers to pursue a hasty exit. Trump has vowed to end America’s “endless wars” but has faced opposition from inside his own administration.

The NSC official said that Trump’s defense team had “presented the president with many different options on how to achieve withdrawal from Syria within anywhere from six months to one month.” The official added: “The president says America first—but he doesn’t understand how to make that happen strategically.”

The official declined to provide the specific options proposed to Trump roughly a week to ten days before his call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but said they included plans “revolving around putting economic and diplomatic pressure on Turkey in order to maintain the security buffer zone long enough for the U.S. to work on a U.N. peacekeeping force replacing our forces.”

. . .

The president’s methods have led to deep confusion that may not be reflected in official statements. Gallego warned that “we can’t trust any readouts” from the administration because “the circle around the president is many yes-women and [yes-]men, and even when they oppose him they are allowing the record to reflect otherwise.”

“I don’t trust any of the readouts I’ve received,” he told Newsweek. “For example, that DoD didn’t have a strong reaction to the Syria pullout.”

If [Defense Secretary Mark] Esper was in line with this, he is not in line to be SecDef. He is not in line with DoD thinking and strategic thinking. The senators who are registering opposition should deny him his post,” he added.

 

But they’re working on a solution.

Sure they are.

I bet this conversation was awesome. US envoy to Syria meets with Russia, Turkey, and Iran.

Hurriyet Daily News: Discussions for Syrian constitution begin in Geneva

Talks started in Geneva on Oct. 29 to activate a Syrian constitutional committee that will work on a new charter for the first time after two years of hard work to establish the group.

U.N. special envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen was to meet the foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia and Iran on Oct. 29 to discuss Syria’s new constitutional committee after the Daily News went to print.

The regime, opposition, Turkey, Russia and the representatives of 15 Western countries led by the U.N. and the U.S. had bilateral meetings separately.

The first meeting of the constitutional committee will be held on Oct. 31 at the U.N. office. Pedersen and the co-chairs of the regime and opposition delegations will speak at the opening meeting.

 

 

 

 

 

So, even by usual standards, there is a problem emerging:

(There’s a neat double entendre in here if one relaxes the assumption that a state cannot be a terrorist while still controlling the police department.)

So, pop quiz: How many armies can you bring into close contact before something goes badly? (This is about an hour old.)

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – At least six Syrian regime soldiers were wounded and a dozen taken captive in clashes with Turkish forces and their Syrian militia proxies on Tuesday near Ras al-Ain, a war monitor reports. Russian military police also reportedly came under fire.

“Heavy fighting erupted for the first time between the Syrian and Turkish armies,” the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reports.

Artillery and machine gun fire were exchanged near the village of Assadiya, south of Ras al-Ain.

Videos circulating on Telegram by pro-militia groups purportedly show several Syrian regime soldiers detained in the village of Tel Hawa being kicked and insulted by militiamen.

In a separate video, a regime soldier can be seen being led away by a militiaman holding him by his collar.

Another video shows a militiaman posing with the body of a regime soldier, who has been shot in the head, blood spilling on the concrete floor.

“The regime pigs,” the militiaman says, pointing at the body.

Turkish mortar fire wounded four civilians in the town of Darbasiyah as a Russian military police patrol was passing through the area, according to the Syrian regime’s official news agency SANA and North Press Agency.

“[Four] civilians were injured in [Darbasiyah] by a shell launched by Turkish military at the border crossing when Russian military police arrived at the crossing,” NPA tweeted.

First actual violent contact between Turkish Tripp’s proper and Syrian regime army troops.

Turkish backed militia continue to commit, film, and share video of war crimes without any repercussions. Besides combat, I mean.

 

 

 

 

Reports of fighting breaking out between Assad’s forces and the SDF (and maybe everyone else?)

DeierzZor24: The International coalition sends a strong message to Assad forces, and bombards their artillery in Deir Ezzor

The International coalition sends a strong message to Assad forces, and bombards their artillery in Deir Ezzor

Exclusive:

This evening, Tuesday 29-10-2019, the International coalition warplanes destroyed cannons of Assad forces’ artillery battalion on the mountain that overlooks Al-Omal and Harabish neighborhoods in Deir Ezzor city, sources told Deir Ezzor 24 network.

According to the sources, the international coalition raids came in response to Assad’s forces’ shelling of a military point of the SDF near Al-Husseiniyah town, which was followed by a clash between the SDF and Assad’s forces in the area, during which the SDF destroyed a tank of the Assad’s forces.

It is noteworthy that the international coalition has been heavily targeting Assad’s forces in recent days, as a result of Assad forces and Iran’s militias movements toward the eastern Euphrates areas of Deir Ezzor.[/quote]

What Assad really wants out of all this is not just to stop Turkey’s incursion, but to bring all of Syria back under his control. This is not unexpected, imo.

Edit: Oh right—forgot to mention: That’s where “the oil” is.

Here’s a good Twitter thread on SDF feeling bailed on:

This sucks.

 

Irony? Or basic causation?

Reuters: Turkey detains 43 suspected Islamic State members, foils plot: police, media

Turkish authorities have detained 43 people suspected of belonging to Islamic State and of plotting attacks targeting celebrations of Turkey’s national day on Tuesday, police and state media said.

The detentions came two days after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had been killed in a raid by U.S. special forces in northwest Syria, near the Turkish border.

The suspects were detained in Istanbul and the northwestern province of Bursa in three separate operations, according to a police statement and the state-run Anadolu news agency.

Three of the suspects who were believed to have been preparing an attack to disrupt Republic Day celebrations in Istanbul, were detained on Tuesday, Anadolu said.

 

 

 

 

Talks happening. Of some kind.

<DELETED TWEET>

Da fuq?

Well, anyway, here it is.

CLEAR!!

Newsweek: RUSSIA SAYS SYRIA KURD FORCES HAVE OFFICIALLY LEFT BORDER WITH TURKEY AS U.S. TROOPS GUARD OIL

Russia has announced the complete withdrawal of Kurdish militias from a stretch of territory along Syria’s northern border with Turkey as the United States has deployed additional troops to the country’s eastern oil fields to deny access to both militants and the government.

. . .

“The Syrian border guards and our military police went there,” Shoigu said, as footage emerged of Russian military vehicles escorting a convoy of the YPG the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces that it led.

. . .

While U.S. soldiers stationed in northern Syria transited to Iraq, others also crossed the border in the opposite direction, heading toward the province of Deir Ezzor where they’ve been instructed to guard lucrative fields containing much of the country’s oil and gas fields. Once under ISIS control, these sites too were seized by the Syrian Democratic Forces during some of the final stages of the U.S.-led coalition’s battle against the jihadi group, whose leader and top spokesperson were killed over the weekend in back-to-back operations first reported by Newsweek.

The Syrian government, backed by both Russia and Iran, however, also battled the jihadis in Deir Ezzor and has sought to reclaim the country’s natural resources. The U.S. exit from northern Syria led the Syrian Democratic Forces to strike a deal with Damascus, but the group has maintained its ties with the U.S. and was set to participate in the oil mission as well.

 

 

 

 

 

Erdogan just delivered a President’s day address.

Funny that he grabs on to the TA’s oil line, since basically nobody thinks that’s actually what any of this is about. But Trump’s justification for the war is their evidence that the US sucks. Well played, Donald.

And besides that… nothing to see here, everything going smoothly according to plan.

So basically, the closest thing there was to a theory of resolution was that the presence of armies associated with nation states would reduce the likelihood of violence because that states don’t want war between states.

That’s just entirely not what’s been happening on the ground though.

Warning: Graphic Content

Basically, bad reports that come out on the Twitters generally get confirmed a few hours later, and there are tons of videos of bad shit going around for every one one that goes mainstream.

[REDACTED COMMENTS: PLACEHOLDER]

DISCUSSION: QUESTIONS: IS THIS ACTUALLY AN INTERSTATE CONFLICT OR JUST PROXIES?

Well… it was. But now all the states are there too.

On Turkey’s side, you have the Turkish proxy militias, basically started as Syrian opposition militias but highly contaminated by militant jihadis. They’ve been fighting with the SDF of non-recognized but US backed Rojava and Assad’s Russian (and to a lesser extent Iranian) backed regime forces.

Nice proxy war. Great. Until the US pulled out.

Now Syrian troops are in the border fighting both the proxy militias and Turkish troops proper. AND Russians are in there patrolling the border even though the fighting continues and they’ve been hit too, though they officially deny it.

And now US troops are lurking.

The proxy war dragged the states into it. So here’s s a list:

States with ground forces in he region-regulars, not proxy militia:

• Syria (Assad)
• Turkey
• Russia
• US
• and maybe a little Iran

Non (recognized) state fighters.

• SDF
• SNA (non-Turkish backed)
• SNA (Turkish backed)

And the SNA (of which there are many militia of different degrees of coordination) has seen a spread of militant jihadism in their ranks. And some of that jihadism is ISIS flavored, and those guys don’t even want to win the war: They want war for its own sake (or, at least, until it turns into Armageddon)… which might be why they are videotaping themselves criming against first SDF forces, Kurdish civilians, and now (boldly) the Syrian regime forces and distributing them on the internet.

Does that make sense?

As for Putin’s play here… yeah, that’s interesting. I mean, Russia and Turkey are supposed to do joint patrols of a 10km strip along the Syrian-Turkish border any minute now… crazy, right?

The confusion and division in NATO with Europeans feeling their hands are tied has to be seen by Putin as an unequivocal good though, yeah?

 

 

 

 

 

Turkey using this as opportunity to crack down domestically.

RUDAW: Turkey declares ‘special security zone’ in southeast Hakkari province

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – Five areas of Turkey’s Kurdish-majority province of Hakkari have been declared part of a “special security zone” by the governor’s office, citing “threats and attacks” by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

“The recent activities of the separatist terrorist organization [PKK] and other terrorist organizations within the borders of our province have started to have a negative impact on the social and economic developments of our province,” reads a statementfrom governor Idris Akbiyik published Tuesday.

“As a result of these activities, our citizens have been deprived of carrying out their social and economic work and movement,” it added.

The aim of the zone, which spans Hakkari city and the districts of Cukurca, Semdinli, Yuksekova, and Derecik, is to “protect our state and people from any sort of terror threat or attack,” the official said.

The region has seen decades of fierce fighting between Turkish armed forces and the PKK, an armed group fighting for greater political and cultural rights for Kurds in Turkey.

Turkey launched Operation Kiran against the Kurdish rebels in Hakkari, Van, and Sirnak on August 17. Three more phases of the operation were launched in other Kurdish areas in the east and southeast of Turkey.

Local security forces have taken various security measures against the Kurdish guerrillas in the past, including the declaration of security zones, the imposition of curfews, and the setting up of multiple checkpoints in conflict areas.

Worst. NATO. Country. Ever.

On the other hand…

Seriously?