So now that some of the boundaries and attendant responsibilities are crystallizing bit, it looks like entities are vying for social and political control. Tel Temir, in particular, appears to be the focus of such efforts.

And there seems to be new fighting developments over to the west in the area north of Aleppo, but it’s the kind of thing where everyone seems to know something is happening but not exactly what.

That makes sense, though, since that region that has developments from the fighting on Idlib to the west, and the continued fighting on the Rojava front to Aleppo’s east doesn’t have nearly the settled responsibilities that exist in the eastern end of the country; things are still fuzzier out there.

So here’s a rough approximation of what we’re looking at in terms of territorial control on the ground.

Gotta love how none of it is ostensibly controlled by people who actually live there; even Assad’s Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has Russians with them.

Anyway, there’s definitely more activity , as usual involving more “strategic driving around” by the US led coalition in Qamishli.

Now, somebody reported seeing tanks, but nobody else did, and lots of the terms get really fuzzy, especially since local slang does things like refer to all armor as “panzers” be it tank or Bradley or whatever.

I don’t see anything but infrastructure and logistical stuff, but I’m not an expert. I think the standard understanding though is that you don’t do anything in a war zone without protection, so if you see a baby cub, know that momma bear is somewhere nearby.

Also, at this point, if you told me that the US military had ninja stealth tanks that looked like other vehicles, I’m not sure I’d believe you, but I’d probably hear you out. Hell, now that I think about it, that second truck looks a bit like Optimus Prime.

So that’s whatever power chess is going on up in the northeast. You could basically spend an afternoon watching nothing but videos of Russian and US/coalition convoys rolling into Qamishli over the last couple months and everyone trying to figure out what it means.

A bit to the southwest, though, the steady-state fighting has intensified, and it appears to be related to renewed attempts to control the region. In the “post cease fire” world, that means social and political control as much as, if not more than, kinetic violence.

That thread has a lot of disagreement and many place an emphasis on fire power over community support. That said, the equation is very different for a dominant power like Russia who is not concerned about being outgunned.

Anyway, it’s a neat discussion, and they have excellent cultural sensibilities.

Moving along, what we see most clearly is a highly visible aggregation of forces and the obvious effects that has on the region, such as impeding civilian traffic in the area. 

This deployment is a response to the Turkish backed militia (TFSA) operating in the region and, well, blowing stuff up again. Or more than usual, anyway.

So there’s fighting around Ain Issa and to parts west as well, but the Tel Temir area is receiving special treatment both in terms of kinetic military activity as well as general attention from the people on the ground.

The reason for this appears to be the “non-kinetic” military attention the area is receiving. Specifically, the Russians are trying to insert themselves into local instituions.

This is obviously consistent with Russia’s stated desire that the SDF be absorbed into Assad’s SAA. Russia wants territorial Syria consolidated under Assad, and this would be a step in that direction.

What’s not clear is whether or not their efforts to displace the existing defense forces will work; they’ve tried unsuccessfully in the past, north of Aleppo.

So this is apparently not unexpected. And it’s obviously something that not just Russia but maybe any similarly situated state might try—it’s a way to gain local control in ways more effective and less costly than occupation by sheer force alone.

Consistently though, as with the meetings between the SDF and local Arab tribes that have been going on lately, when offered options, local peoples are opting to stick with the civil and military structures of Rojava.

There’s lots of examples of the above, and the SDF/Rojava clearly go out of their way to hold and publicize such meetings. Really, the whole democracy and self-determination thing is kinda their jam, so it should be expected. And that’s also their argument for why they deserve the support of localities—and for that matter NATO, but I digress—in that this sort of political arrangement is, in fact, what they are offering. And people are into it.

Well, with the exception of the ISIS sympathizers in the southeast.

Actually, not just ISIS sympathizers but anyone there who might want to cause trouble.

That’s just Iran, though; Iran always wants to be a problem. But yes, ISIS sympathizers in the region continue to be a problem.

But they’re working on that.

ISIS resistance, then, like Iran, is kind of the exception that proves the rule here for Rojava’s efforts.

As in, ISIS is firmly dedicated to people not having the right to determine their own political fates. Heck, they’re even against free personal expression, to say nothing of letting people freely choose their own destinies, be it by politics or otherwise.

In that vein, as per the theme that has emerged in this post, people tasked to the fight against ISIS understand that there are more important factors at work than just kinetic violence.

These people are so good at what they do.

So I there’s been a new development in the war:

Bad guys are trying to troll the good guys into submission.

Glory be. My stars.

As in, I guess, somehow ISIS types a.k.a. Turkish-backed militia and their supporters are going online and “attacking” and “logging” the Twitter accounts of their opposition and, I guess, trolling them?

I know this sounds absurd, as is my presentation of this absurdity. But I am mostly serious.

Like, there has been trolling. But, like—and I know this is sorta obvious—even though there’s a war and combat and humanitarian crises and stuff, the more real stuff gets, the more trolling can be off-putting.

For anyone who can’t see the whole image in their display:

Yes. Seven dead terrorist children.

Charming.

So, perhaps not as huge an issue as others in an all out frickin’ war, but it’s annoying. And hurtful. And also gets in the way of conversation which the good guys want for obvious reasons of letting the world know what’s what and which is all to easy to mess up.

Communicating with our fellows is hard enough, right?

In response, people in or for Rojava have set up a Twitter blocklist where if you sign up it will automatically block pro Turkey jerks.

Remember: Not Turkish people. Not even pro-Turkey people. Pro-Turkey jerks.

That’s just cool. It’s another example of the ongoing, unplanned adaptations to things that had never occurred to anyone—sometimes maybe have never happened before—that they keep engaging and dealing with in this conflict.

That said, beyond the nuisance, no matter how nasty jhadi and other pro-Islamo-fascist trolls can be, the people on the ground are not even remotely taking this attack seriously.

Of course, this is but another minor extension of the Twitter Wars such that, whatever genius is running things at Twitter, that company is totally unequipped to deal with.

Like, this cracked me up:

As friend of mine said: “for no reason.”

Even beyond the scope of the “standard” humanitarian crisis, the hundreds of thousands of internally displaced peoples and refugees, the ethnic cleansing—all of that.

Not that that’s not bad; it’s horrible. But it’s something we understand. There’s more.

There is an insane humanitarian problem in Rojava the likes of which I don’t recall every having even read about before.

Like, take this for example. This is a problem.

Problem. Yes.

But nobody, nobody, has come even close to figuring out how to address the humanitarian crisis facing ISIS families.

Consider: ISIS children play in a flooded prison/refugee camp.

What in holy hell am I supposed to think about that?

But that’s just one evocative example of how the camps continue to suck and nobody knows what to do about it.

ANF News: “Women who reject the ISIS ideology in Hol Camp are murdered”
With the Turkish attacks, the violence in Hol Camp in northern Syria has also increased. ISIS jihadists take advantage of the chaos and murder women who reject the ISIS ideology, reports Behiye Hisên, security officer of the camp.

The Hol Camp, where many members of the ISIS are accommodated, lies about 45 kilometers east of the Hesekê city. Of the 71,000 people in the camp, 30,000 are ISIS members. The ISIS jihadists in the camp demonstrate again and again for Erdoğan and act more and more self-confident. The murders and attacks by ISIS women manifests the fact that Hol Camp is one of the most dangerous camps in the world. At the same time as the Turkish attack, ISIS women began to murder several people “because they did not live according to the rules of the ISIS”.

I understand all those words, but I think it is beyond any meaningful understanding for me for what it must be like to live like that.

Independent.uk: Tunnels, knives and riots: This Syrian camp holding thousands of Isis wives is at breaking point

A Turkish invasion of northern Syria has led to a collapse in security at a camp holding the foreign wives of Isis fighters. Richard Hall reports from Al Hol camp

The quiet of Al Hol camp in the afternoon belies the trouble that lurks beneath the surface.

In an annex of this sprawling facility reserved for some 10,000 foreign wives and children of Isis fighters from around the world, a mutiny is brewing.

Over the past few months, sharia courts have been set up by camp detainees still loyal to the terror group. There has been a spate of killings targeting those who do not abide by the laws set by those courts. Riots have broken out and guards have been attacked with knives.

Nearly nine months after the defeat of the Isis caliphate, camp authorities believe the terror state lives on in this barren settlement in the plains of northeast Syria.

The women detained here came from more than 50 countries to join Isis. Most of those countries, including Britain, are refusing to repatriate their citizens due to security fears.

At least that’s as bad as things can get, right? Could it get any worse?

Obviously.

People around the globe are starting to pick up on this problem and realize it’s a thing.

But then what?

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Human Affairs: SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC: North East Syria: Al Hol camp (PDF)

(I swear, sometimes I think that do-gooder types don’t even know what acronyms are, how they work, or what they’re good for.)

But seriously: What the fuck did people think was going to happen when the Caliphate was defeated?

Let’s also stop and consider: That last video is only making the case for repatriation; it’s not clear if that will happen or how.

That said, one thing that is interesting and a little cool is that nobody of any significance in the world outside of Turkey blames the Syrian Democratic Forces for this.

What the world should be recognizing, though, is how amazing it is that the SDF didn’t slaughter their ISIS prisoners for their own safety and that of their families. I’m not advocating that. But more than a few theories of political science will tell you that that’s what we should expect to happen.

It didn’t.

They did the right thing. And now they have a huge problem that they continue to pay a price for assuming. It’s a problem they shouldered while aiding the world with the fight against ISIS, and which they now continue to shoulder, mostly alone.

But after that, what happens gets a bit fuzzy, as this is obviously and indisputably a massive failure.

And that’s not even considering the creating the next Mexican Joker super-terrorist angle.

Like, how are these kids going to grow up? People drew up a plan for dealing with ISIS that didn’t consider the idea that they might have kids.

To be perfectly blunt: Serial rapists produce children.

It’s important to realize that thinking in terms of the camps does not even begin to grasp the significance and scope of the problem.

Like, keeping them alive is one thing. But what about giving them a life? Do we have to decide who even deserves to have a life? And if so, then who and how?

After what they’ve been through, especially for impressionable children, this is no small thing.

Consider the two pieces below. They basically describe an all out assault on the very foundations of civilization as I understand it.

Al-Jazeera: Futures under fire: Educating Syria’s children
Since the start of the war in 2011, the country has suffered the largest reversal of education progress ever recorded.

The education of Syria’s children has long since passed the crisis point.

Since the start of the war in 2011, the country has suffered the largest reversal of education progress ever recorded, as enrolment numbers have dropped dramatically. At least 1.7 million school-age Syrian children are not in school, with another 1.35 million at risk of dropping out. Before the crisis, Syria boasted a 98 percent enrolment rate in basic education.

According to UNICEF, there have been more than 4,000 attacks on schools since the war began. One in three schools has been damaged, destroyed or repurposed by both sides of the war, while at least 150,000 teachers have been killed or fled the country.

That’s the pedestrian version of the problem. Now consider:

Today’s vocab: sexual jihad

Al-Jazeera: Women under ISIL: The teacher

A teacher describes being made to teach children about war, and what happened to those who did not follow ISIL’s rules.

They only wanted us to teach the verses in the Quran about “jihad”, war and murder. We did not like children learning that. So, I tried to teach at home. I made a deal with some parents for small groups of students to come to my house.

But the mother of one of my students talked too much. The news spread from one person to another. And ISIL found out a teacher was teaching at home and was not following their instructions. They told my husband: “She’d better get training in ISIL’s laws and teach children at the mosque like we want. Or else …” It was a threat. I had no other choice.

During the training, we were constantly reminded that we were one of them and had to abide by their rules. They had our names and monitored us closely. We were now with them.

At the end of the training, we were given a private appointment. We were received one by one, and they made us take an oath. We did it in the presence of the emir’s wife. She was responsible for these kinds of things.

. . .

But even at home, I was on guard. It was forbidden for women to look out of the windows, or even open the windows or curtains. Even if a female neighbour came to visit me, I had to be fully covered. We always had to be fully covered. We were afraid that one of the women would gossip and give information about us.

. . .

For ISIL members, women served mainly to satisfy their sexual needs. And it was a way to have more children, to increase their numbers.

There were several kinds of marriages, such as sexual “jihad” or those with female prisoners of war. The female prisoners of war were sold to several men – emirs or fighters. Sexual “jihad”, on the other hand, is when a woman marries an emir or a fighter believing that God will reward her as if she had participated in the fighting.

There was a woman named Um al-Yaman. She oversaw all the marriage and sexual “jihad” matters. She had the girls’ names, ages and physical descriptions. She coordinated all this with the fighters and the emirs. The emirs preferred virgins. An emir has greater influence and power than a regular fighter. But they all had their specific requests for marriage; their own personal requirements.

When ISIL announced the creation of a new brigade, they wanted new members our age, women from the mosque. These women used any means possible to convince other women to enlist and take part in the fighting. They flattered them by telling them that they would be like men; that they would have authority, power and control – and of course, money. They offered them a lot of money. They used many tactics to convince them. They asked me to join a brigade they were setting up – a brigade of women of my generation – but I told them I had health issues. I used this excuse so they would not suspect me of being against them.

This is way above my pay grade. I have no idea what to do with this.

But somebody with some modicum of influence or power should have at least given it some thought by now.

It’s entirely not clear that that kind of thoughtfulness ever occurred. At least not by the political decision makers—there’s every reason from what we’ve seen of them in this conflict to believe that this stuff keeps military officers up at night. And probably Lindsey Graham, if you’ve been following this blog.

But as to the rest: Was no thought given to this?

And that is at once something that angers me, but perhaps even more, I find it completely unnerving.

Since the coalition’s Operation Inherent Resolve stages out of northern Iraq, it’s worth mentioning that there has been steady messaging on the fight against ISIS in Iraqi Kurdistan across the border from Syria, and especially the importance of local allies.

I think it’s been going on awhile, but this needs a bit of explanation.

First, as per above, they go out of their way to emphasize partnerships and how much work they’re all doing together.

As per that last Tweet, they frequently fold Syria into the mission. They pretty clearly make a point of it.

This is all standard, of course. But in a non scientific view, it feels like there has been increased emphasis on linking the ISIS fight to the Kurds, and they can do this “safely” with respect to the politics in northern Iraq.

So the US has been hammering its work with Kurdistan and other Iraqis in fighting ISIS. Middle East media covers it a lot too.

The balance they seem to want to strike is to emphasize the US/coalition role there without threatening to interfere with the protests and politics to the south, where the protesters are emphasizing the reducing of foreign intervention in Iraqi affairs.

Northern Iraq is a kind of Venn diagram intersection of a lot of issues for Syria, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran, to say nothing of Russia.

It’s right between Iran and Syria, so yeah, it’s important. And that location is in delicate balance with the political instability to the south.

Iraqi Kurdistan is remarkably stable for all that. And it’s being offered as a kind of beacon of a working democracy to the south. And the protesters have a kind of “Why not us?” attitude going, so the restrained approach of just looking stable and working on being prosperous works.

The protesters have, among other things, realized that Iraq is rich but the people are poor. Why not them, indeed, eh?

It is striking, in this vein, that Sec. Pompeo was much more visible in his recent meetings in Kurdistan than he was with respect to his meetings with political leaders in Baghdad; I think I learned of those latter meetings from his speech in Kurdistan, in fact.

Around that time, this showed up which struck me as new—conducting training in Baghdad.

It seems like the US military wants to make clear: We’re still training you for the fight, but you can trust us not to interfere even when we’re in Baghdad, and oh, HAI IRAN!!

That last part appears not to have gone unnoticed, what with the recent rocket attacks on an American installation near the airport in Baghdad.

The US military currently wants everyone to know where they are. They keep saying so. Except when they don’t. It’s a powerful thing.

One way or another, the US threading the needle on being in Iraq but not intervening in Iraqi politics is a close fit, but they seem to be doing a remarkably good job.

Just my opinion, obviously, and it might be annoying to see how good they are at threading the needle when our leaders  actually want to given how often is seems that they don’t. But it looks like good work from my big comfy chair in America, anyway.

But yeah, they like to be noisy about the fight against ISIS. They even just celebrated their own special holiday.

Perhaps not coincidentally, the same day a report came out about Kurds playing an important role in finding and fighting ISIS.

So yeah, they do this “emphasize the working with the Kurds and fighting ISIS in Syria” thing a lot. Seems like a good thing.

So today is all about the M4 highway and the name of the game is driving around. As per the new usual.

But there are some twists here, and there is a definite Storm Brewing vibe going on, especially in the Ain Issa — Kobane region.

First, consider the various permutations of driving around Rojava and who is driving with whom.

Obviously, the M4 is totally important for tactical and strategic purposes—even the economy depends upon it.

Almost all reports of activity today concerned the M4 and, specifically, which combination of US, Russian, Turkish, and Syrian Arab Army forces were patrolling where. Or just driving around as the case may be, though that’s usually the same thing as patrolling for Russia and the US.

So the M4 is open, clear, and being patrolled.

But where the hell are the Americans?

How are they always going from west to east. It should be physically impossible, but it’s like nobody ever sees them going east.

We once had a cat that learned to get outside through an open basement window under the deck. We realized something was up when the cat needed to be let in five times in a row without us ever letting her out. This is a lot like that.

Now, we know it was apparently an unusual trip for them, but was it unexpected?

Because something happened such that the SAA forced the US vehicles to reroute.

I wonder if the SAA guys who had to tell the US troops to go back was excited or terrified. It’s gotta be one or the other.

Russia was obviously gleeful—they love putting stuff like that out in their media.

This wasn’t the only unusual activity though, as some of the patrols to the west were, well, missing?

Um. No patrol? Hasn’t there been skirmishes there not so long ago? And that’s the reason for no patrols? Isn’t the prevention of fighting the whole reason for the patrols?

Remember the TFSA? Worse than ISIS? And yet nobody is patrolling.

Not sure why the patrols were so irregular and sometimes absent. Given that, it probably makes sense to recall that there is concern on the part of the US military about the reliability of some of the other parties to the conflict.

One way or another, there is something up. And something is up near Ain Issa.

So, yeah. Storm’s brewing.

So that’s the situation on the ground. A few other notes.

Brett McGurk is jumping up and down about everything again and has a new thread of a dozen or so Tweets. Nothing new to anyone following this blog, but it’s a good run down to see that yeah, everything is as bad as it has seemed.

It’s a nice summary of things.

So that’s fun. Poor McGurk.

Meanwhile, the United States pretends to get serious with Erdogan and Assad by sanctioning an already wrecked economy and maybe recognizing something bad Turkey did a long-ass time ago.

Solid work there.

But, as usual, the people on the ground get it. Some even had words of encouragement for people in England where apparently an election of some sort happened.

So yeah, they endure.

They do so much more too.

So it’s well known that Iran has forces in Syria.

For that matter, it seems Iran has forces all over the dang place. Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen. . .

From the point of view of Iran, they still represent the as yet incomplete Islamic Revolution which doesn’t end until everyone joins, I guess. Or dies. Something.

So, anyway, beyond just having forces in Syria, Iran’s been getting press for a base it has in Syria.

FOX News: Iran building new underground tunnel to house missiles: intelligence sources

Iran is building an underground tunnel to store missiles and large-scale weapons, according to satellite images obtained by Fox News and Western intelligence sources who reviewed the information.

The first image–taken by Image Sat International (ISI), an end-to-end geospatial intelligence solutions company, where construction of the tunnel can be seen–was captured on Oct. 5.

Two weeks later, a shed was used to hide the tunnel entrance from the air. Large dirt piles appeared at the opposite end of the tunnel as excavations continue.

Dash cunning of them to use that shed. Can’t believe their stealth shed tech didn’t thwart American satellites and aircraft and such.

Of course, maybe they didn’t expect to hide it, really, as this has been a thing for at least a couple of months.

The Iranian facility that was targeted with airstrikes multiple times this year after the existence of the base was revealed in a report by Fox News. The project was approved by top leadership in Tehran and is being completed by the Iranian al-Quds Forces.

In May, Fox News reported that Iran was building a border crossing not far from the new compound in Syria. Sources have expressed concern that Iranian troops and weapons could be easily moved to the Imam Ali military base using the crossing with Iraq.

The discovery of the tunnel construction comes after a report last week in the New York Times indicated that Iran is secretly moving hundreds of short range missiles to Iraq that are capable of hitting Israel, Saudi Arabia and US troops in the region.

I should mention here that Iran’s been getting press for a lot of things besides this base, most notably their ongoing attempt to pick a fight with basically anyone.

They’re allegedly currently firing alleged rockets allegedly at an alleged US installation in Baghdad which strikes the US basically refuses to acknowledge which is making Iran nuts.

Iran gets cranky when it doesn’t get enough attention.

What’s interesting here is that this is the first base Iran has tried to build from scratch in Syria.

And ostensibly it is getting press because Israel, allegedly—or someone, allegedly— is allegedly trying to blow it up.

Some of the reports came in mid-November when Israel fired rockets at Gaza and Damascus. It seems like when they launch a strike it’s often multiple simultaneous attacks and they can count on the most “famous” of the targets to get press while others pass almost unnoticed.

This report is more recent, though, from December 4th.

AMN News: Unidentified warplanes allegedly bomb Iranian base in eastern Syria

BEIRUT, LEBANON (11:00 P.M.) – New reports have surfaced this evening of unidentified warplanes bombing the Iranian base near the border city of Albukamal in the Deir Ezzor Governorate.

According to the reports, a powerful explosion was heard near the Iranian base in the Albukamal District around 7:45 P.M. (local time), with claims of unidentified warplanes hitting the warehouses at this installation.

Some activists have alleged that the airstrikes were carried out by the Israeli Air Force; however, this is not confirmed, nor are the airstrikes.

These claims are often made every few weeks by pro-militant publications with little evidence to corroborate them.

Wow, that report is a mess, which is interesting since it’s a pro-Assad paper so one would expect more resolution in the message.

Anyway, beyond the fact that the bombing is not alleged but happened, we’ve got three things:

• Iran is not just in Syria, but is working on a base.
• Somebody keeps trying to blow it up, and everyone thinks it’s Israel.
• It’s in Deir ez Zor, where the US has a presence.

However, it is also generally believed that Russian fighters chased Israeli jets away from attacking it the other day.

Jerusalem Post: Russian Su-35 jets scrambled to stop Israel over Syria – reports
The reports claim that “Israeli fighters had to flee from the Russian Su-35” and at the same time that “Iran delivered unknown air defense systems to Syria.”

Iranian and Russian media reported that Russian Sukhoi Su-35 warplanes were scrambled from Russia’s Khmeimim air base in northern Syria to intercept an alleged Israeli attack near the Tiyas Military Airbase, also known as the T-4 Airbase earlier this month. The report on the alleged attack on the Syrian Arab Air Force base east of Homs was first put online in a blog at Avia. It was picked up by the website Almasdar News. The Tasnim News in Iran then claimed that the Su-35s sought to intercept Israeli planes over Syria.

The reports claim that “Israeli fighters had to flee from the Russian Su-35” and at the same time that “Iran delivered unknown air defense systems to Syria.” The T-4 base is a well-known transit point for Iranian weapons, and has Russian personnel stationed there. Israel has been accused of striking the area in the past. In May 2018, Ynet said that Israel carried out an airstrike to destroy an Iranian 3rd Khordad Air Defense system at T-4. Syria claimed more airstrikes hit the area in June and July of this year and September last year.

This slayed me though.

The reports at the Avia website follow other reports at the same site that often write sensational accounts about alleged Israeli actions in Syria. For instance, the same site reported on December 8 that “Israel is preparing new strikes on Syria.” Al-Masdar News reported that the Iranian Bavar-373 air defense was deployed to the area. Both reports appeared to rely on a Twitter account named @Syrian_MC for their information. That account indicated that Russia had scrambled its jets and that the “incident” ended on December 6.

Oh no! The media has discovered that you can learn stuff online! I’ll be out of a job!

Initially, I thought this was part of some kind of meta- or performative war where the states show off doing secret target hits on one another or force another party’s move by threat of force instead of kinetic force. Or something.

And then I saw people slagging off the Su-35 altogether.

But sometimes the game is just getting people to understand or believe in their capabilities.

Like, it appears the US has conducted two unclaimed the airstrikes, the second of which they dropped a bundle of frikken swords through the center of a not-yet existent moon roof on a Subaru. They claimed responsibility for neither. Nobody on the ground thinks anyone else could have done it.

Which, if they did it, is necessarily part of the point. Frikken ninjas.

So, like, is the Su-35 a thing? That appears to be the meta game even above Israel and Iran shooting at each other in Syria.

Who can know?

The press seems to get a fair amount of information for allegedly unidentified things that may or may not have happened nobody saw nuthin’ y’hear?

Jerusalem Post: At least 5 Iran-backed militia members killed on Iraqi border
Five militia members were killed in the attack, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Five Iranian militia members were killed after unidentified aircraft attacked Iranian warehouses in Al-Bukamal in the Deir Ezzor area of eastern Syria near the Iraqi border on Saturday night, according to Syrian media. This is the second attack in the Al Bukamal area in the past four days.

The attack targeted three weapons depots belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in the area, according to the Step news agency. Large explosions were reported in the area and some Iranian militias escaped the area after the attack in fear of additional attacks.

OK, at this point, there’s a lot of stuff here and a lot going on. Like, a lot.

Let’s look back at the older report on Iran’s base.

FOX News: Iran building new classified military base in Syria: intelligence sources

EXCLUSIVE: Iran has established a new military base in Syria and has plans to house thousands of troops at the location, according to multiple Western intelligence sources.

The classified Iranian project, called the Imam Ali compound, was approved by top leadership in Tehran and is being completed by the Iranian al-Quds Forces.

There’s tons of satellite images everywhere but as usual with this ongoing story—Israel keeps launching attacks at this place, allegedly—they keep omitting an explanation of where it is besides “near the border.”

It appears to be at our favorite contested border crossing.

Figures.

How does that get left out of all these stories? Like, the sheer magnitude of the strategic importance of the location would seem like something to make the stories.

To say nothing of, like, oh say, how the hell is there an Iranian base there with the US forces in the region? And there are Russians in the Iraian base? And Russian and Israeli fighters are chasing each other around over the US and SDF forces in the area.

Oh yeah, remember the SDF? How did Rojava get erased from the narrative in this part of the war?

That’s pretty typical, actually, now that I think about it: There’s always some reason for people to feel this isn’t really about Rojava. And it’s dumb.

So I have no idea what is going on down there in the southeast but it appears to be a mess.

Somewhere along the way, though, Syria just said to heck with it and put out a concise and effective report.

AMN News: Iran built up air defenses around key Syrian base months ago: source

BEIRUT, LEBANON (4:20 P.M.) – The Iranian air defense system has been deployed in for several months now, a source from the Syrian military told Al-Masdar News from Damascus.

According to the source, the Iranian Armed Forces deployed one of their air defense systems to the T-4 Airbase in eastern Homs after a big attack by the Israeli military killed several IRGC personnel at the installation.

The source said that in addition to the Iranian air defense system at the T-4 Airbase, the Russian military also has their own weapons at the installation to protect their forces in case of an attack.

In regards to the alleged interception of an Israeli warplane by the Russian Su-35, the source said he could not confirm these claims because the Russian forces in Syria have not divulged this information.

The T-4 Airbase in Syria is one of the only installations in Syria that has both an Iranian and Russian presence.

During the Syrian Army’s operation to retake Albukamal and several other areas east of the Euphrates, the Russian and Iranian armed forces used the T-4 Airbase to attack the Islamic State’s (ISIS/ISIL/IS/Daesh) positions.

However, since mid-2018, the base has mostly just housed military personnel from both the Russian and Iranian armed forces.

Alright, so everyone’s known about this place all along? But, like, other people didn’t know that we should have already known all this?

This is a recurring theme in this conflict. Something happens and there is this flurry of activity and surprise. And then it turns out many of the facts had been well known for awhile. And they’ve been around awhile because they’ve been in motion for some time.

Which is why maybe it shouldn’t have been surprising that some of this is a proxy war dance between Israel and Iran.

Mulhak: Revolutionary Guards: If Israel makes a mistake towards us, we will level it from Lebanon (Google Translate)

“If Israel makes the smallest mistake toward Iran, we will settle Tel Aviv with soil from Lebanon,” said Maj. Gen. Murtaza Qurbani, adviser to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander.

In response to Israeli statements about launching military action against Tehran, he added, “Iran is not seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, and Israel is too small to make any mistake towards Iran … the hand of our fighters is on the trigger by order of the Supreme Leader … if the guide orders a missile attack on Israel, all Zionists will surrender their hands surrender … We will cut their ears apart, and we are not afraid of the germs of corruption. ”

He continued: “The hearts and souls of the people of Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq with Iran, and the recent events in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran aim to strike at the unity of the resistance front, including the Islamic Republic.”

On Sunday, Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett threatened to make Syria Vietnam for Iran, vowing to prevent Iranian military concentration in Syrian territory, calling for a shift from deterrence to attack.

Not very neighbor-like, is it?

Weird FakeMedia and the like (and ZeroHedge?) are pushing this reference to Israel saying it will make Syria into Iran’s Vietnam, but this is the only MSM type reference I can find right now.

Haaretz: Israel’s Defense Chief Warns Iran: Syria Will Become Your Vietnam
Comments by Naftali Bennett follow remark from Israel’s foreign minister, who was quoted as saying Israel would consider striking Iran if it came close to being nuclear-capable

Israel’s defense minister warned Iran against its continued presence in Syria, saying Israel will “work tirelessly” to prevent the establishment of a stable Iranian military presence in the war-torn country.

“It is no secret that Iran is trying to establish a ring of fire around our country, it is already based in Lebanon and is trying to establish in Syria, Gaza and more,” Naftali Bennett said on Sunday at a conference held by Makor Rishon, an Israeli newspaper associated with the religious right. “We need to move from containment to attack.”

“We say to Iran: Syria will become your Vietnam,” Bennett added.

OK, so since we’re into fighting words, let’s compare that Israeli paper’s account to whatever is being amplified by ZeroHedge for whomever they are helping.

I’m sure they have their reasons. Who knows?

ZeroHedge: Israel Threatens Iran With “Own Vietnam” In Syria, Hints At Major Pre-Emptive Strike

Days after top US defense officials warned they had credible intelligence of a major Iran threat against American troops and interests in the region (though as usual the anonymously sourced ‘evidence’ was not forthcoming), a top Israeli military leader has put the region on notice, suggesting the possibility of yet more ‘preemptive strikes’ on Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and even possibly Iran itself.

Israel’s ultra-hawkish defense minister Naftali Bennett has warned the IDF is ready to give Iran its own ‘Vietnam’ in new remarks vowing the Islamic Republic will never get a firm foothold there.

Addressing an Israeli conference on Sunday, Bennett further stated “it is no secret that Iran is trying to establish a ring of fire around our country, it is already based in Lebanon and is trying to establish itself in Syria, Gaza and more.”

“If we are determined, we can take Iran’s aggression forces out of Syria. They have nothing to look for on the borders of the State of Israel. We say to Iran: Syria will become your Vietnam. If you do not come out, you will bleed because we will work tirelessly until you take the forces of aggression out of Syria,” he stated.

Israel a mere weeks ago conducted what was said to be one of the largest single missile and air attacks against ‘Iranian targets’ in and around Damascus throughout the entirety of the war. And in a worrisome prospect for a continued broader war, the Israeli defense minister urged, “We need to move from containment to attack.”

Since this is clearly another war within the war. As such reports like these are often not just describing the war but themselves are parts of the conflict, ways in which the fighting entities interact and posture.

Which makes it fun to chase down sources. ZeroHedge’s source? US backed Radio Free Iran. Well, Radio Free Europe in Iran.

I didn’t know that was still a thing.

And then Radio Free Annoy the Enemy had another source to a Jewish modern Orthodox paper in Brooklyn that has a large daily circulation but otherwise, seems odd for a scoop like this.

Iran and Israel having their own little Vietnam. But at this point, it’s hard to tell what is bluster and saber rattling and what is real—especially when what passes for saber rattling here involves casualties and deaths.

So yeah: Iran is crawling around Syria, so I figured it was worth taking a look. They also have militias fighting in Idlib but so does everyone in the world it seems sometimes. Everyone who wants to fight, anyway.

Poor Idlib.

People are trying to sort out the larger picture of Turkey’s maritime and now apparent regional plans.

Seems relevant now that Erdogan has announced that the eastern Mediterranean belongs to Turkey now.

Erdogan has been very forthright and, frankly, aggressive about this claim

in.gr: Erdogan declares Greece will pay for its actions internationally
Erdogan also expressed Ankara’s anger with the Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt energy cooperation declaring that they cannot make a move without Ankara’s approval.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is ratcheting up the tensions in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean with threats against Greece over the delimitation of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean.In an interview with Turkish TRT television he attacked Greece and Cyprus even as he defended the controversial Libya-Turkey MOU regarding the supposed delimitation of the two countries’ EEZs, which under international law do not meet.

So the deal made with the government in Tripoli that claims to represent Libya (GNA)—this is, apparently, a highly contentious claim with different regional states backing each side.

Early returns suggest to me that Turkey is backing the side that works with terrorists whereas the other side (LNA) fights ISIS and al Queda.

I need to learn more, but that sounds like pretty much the norm at this point, doesn’t it?

Anyway, Erdogan is not just claiming a right but asserting it rather aggressively.

Erdogan also expressed Ankara’s anger with the Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt energy cooperation declaring that the four countries cannot make a move without Ankara’s approval.

Believing that he has made a checkmate move with Libya. Erdogan essentially argued that the four cooperating countries cannot construct a natural gas transmission line without Turkey’s consent.

«Greece’s hands and feet have been bound and that has driven them crazy,» Erdogan declared.

Turkish government leaks indicated that Ankara is poised to conduct gas drilling areas that it has expropriated in the deal with Libya. That includes large parts of Greece’s EEZ

So Turkey is claiming this is a kind of “counter attack” to the illegitimate claims of Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt.

And Turkey says it’s in charge.

I’m not even addressing Turkey’s ridiculous claim that because it has the longest coastline on the Mediterranean that it has the legal right to claim territory farther from it’s shores than other states.

I mean, Greece’s is bigger. And second, whose is bigger is not a legal argument.

Some people think it’s very important, I guess.

So, to Turkey, this is about gas and oil, but also territorial domination of the region.

TRT World: Why did Turkey sign a maritime deal with Libya?

Turkey’s recent moves in the Eastern Mediterranean have made waves after it signed a maritime deal with Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli. The deal is a clear signal to other coastal states in the region that the gas game will not be played without Ankara’s consent.

Greece, Egypt, Israel and the Greek Cypriot Administration (GCA) have previously signed maritime agreements,excluding Turkey, to draw up their respective Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) in the Eastern Mediterranean and launching their own exploration efforts.

“Other international actors cannot conduct exploration activities in the areas marked in the [Turkish-Libyan] memorandum. Greek Cypriots, Egypt, Greece and Israel cannot establish a natural gas transmission line without Turkey’s consent,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, referring to the Ankara-Tripoli deal.

Before the Turkish-Libyan maritime deal, Greece, Israel and the GCA were trying to outmanoeuvre Ankara by designating their own EEZs, signing agreements among themselves.

As part of preventing any incursion by these other meddling states, Turkey has invoked the possibility of military engagement to secure it’s rights.

Starting in Libya it has, anyway, where Erdogan has said he has the legal right to send troops to assist the GNA if they request it despite existing embargoes on Libya.

Ahval: Erdoğan says Turkey may send troops to Libya

Turkish soldiers may be deployed in Libya, if the UN-recognised government of Libya were to make such a request, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said in a live televised interview on Monday.

“If Libya were to invite Turkey, of course Turkey would have the right to go to Libya as per the accord,” Erdoğan said. “We are prepared to give all manner of support to Libya.”

Libyan General Khalifa Haftar and his self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) on April 4 launched an assault to topple the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, led by Fayez al Sarraj, and they have since neared Tripoli with support from Russian forces.

“Haftar is not a national representative of Libya there, Sarraj is,” President Erdoğan said.

Erdoğan said Turkey was utilising its rights born out of international law with the memorandum of understanding signed between Ankara and the GNA.

The deal between Ankara and the GNA redefines Turkey’s maritime borders in the Mediterranean and affects territorial waters of Cyprus and several Greek islands including Crete, drawing objections from Greece, Cyprus and Egypt.

“The unilateral steps that they took until now, disregarding international law were foiled,” Erdoğan said, referring to Western countries that have voiced concerns.

Recall that the GNA are alleged to be rather unsavory types.

Beyond the Mediterranean

The even more disturbing picture that is emerging is one where Turkey is pursuing a much greater regional dominance than was initially believed.

We’re gonna need a bigger map.

That’s Tripoli with the red mark to the west, by the way. So that’s pretty far into the Med we’re talking about.

So what else has been going on here.

The Guardian: Libya arms embargo being systematically violated by UN states
Jordan, Turkey and UAE singled out for ‘routinely and blatantly’ supplying weapons

UN member states have systematically violated a Libyan arms embargo, according to a long-awaited UN report due to be published on Monday that will identify Jordan, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates as the main culprits.

The report is expected to say these three countries “routinely and sometimes blatantly supplied weapons with little effort to disguise the source”. It is also likely to link the UAE to a bombing of a detention centre that has been described as a war crime.

So it appears that Turkey has been working with the GNA in Libya for awhile now, and in conjunction with other countries in the region. And in ways proscribed by the international community. Swell.

Now that we know that there is this kind of coordination—often relatively clandestine coordination—let’s look at some of the areas of engagement.

So, around the Horn of Africa, especially if they are in coordination with UAE.

Also, not pictured in that image is that they basically rebuilt an island off the coast of Sudan so Turkey could have a naval base there.

Al Jazeera: Why are so many countries expanding in the Red Sea?

Turkey has signed a $650m deal to develop an island on the Red Sea.

Turkey has signed an agreement with Sudan that will allow it to have a military presence on the Red Sea.

It is the latest country to expand into the area.

The list of countries already in the region or building bases there include: Saudi Arabia, China, Israel, the UAE and the US.

Al Jazeera: Why are tensions rising in the Red Sea region?
Egypt sends troops to Eritrea as Sudan and Turkey ink a deal to rebuild a Red Sea island and construct a naval dock.

The visit, hailed as historic, was the first by a Turkish head of state since 1956 when Sudan gained independence.

Sudan’s official state news agency said the two countries agreed to set up a strategic planning group to discuss international affairs, and that they intended to conclude a military deal.

Among more than a dozen agreements signed by Erdogan and Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was a deal to temporarily lease the Red Sea island of Suakin to Turkey.

Turkey of course claims this is a humanitarian mission for Africa.

“Therefore, it is also Turkey’s aim to show the entire world that no country can be eternally damned to poverty, and to help Africa get rid of its image as the dark continent.”

Egypt immediately identified it as a threat.

In what may have been a response to fears that Turkey was expanding its influence in the region, Egypt sent hundreds of its troops to a UAE base in Eritrea, on the border with Sudan.

Basically, Turkey has put together a web of regional outposts that allow it a great deal of power over critical global shipping channels for the region’s oil.

AIES: Paper PDF (Micha/el Tanchum)

Turkey‘s String of Pearls
Micha’el Tanchum: Turkey’s String of Pearls: Turkey’s Overseas Naval Installations Reconfigure the Security Architecture of Mediterranean-Red Sea Corridor, AIES Fokus 4/2019

Turkey will soon preside over an arc of blue-water power projection extending from Northern Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean to Qatar in the Persian Gulf that fundamentally alters the security architecture of the Middle East. Deftly combining soft power initiatives with the construction of coastal military installations in Sudan on the Red Sea and in Somalia on the Arabian Sea, Turkey has created a ‚string of pearls’ that directly challenges the power of Egypt-Saudi Arabia-United Arab Emirates alliance. With the military entrenchment of Turkey in the Horn of Africa, the Turkey-Qatar versus Egypt-Saudi Arabia-UAE competition has created an incendiary fault-line that now encompasses the entire Eastern Mediterranean-Red Sea maritime corridor.

Backed by Qatar, Turkey’s maritime expansion is also a response to Egypt’s trilateral strategic partnership with Greece and the Republic of Cyprus, an alignment supported by the UAE and Saudi Arabia. In this complex web of rival alliances that spans the Aegean and Arabian seas, any one of the previously localized conflicts could ignite a wider regional clash.

Let’s look at the big map again.

So we’re basically talking about a huge area of military influence for Turkey.

This area not coincidentally,—Erdogan often states the reason explicitly—involves control over a huge percentage of the channels for the transportation of energy, be it by pipeline or oil tanker.

And Russia controls or influences a great deal of the pipeline action as well, in particular for Europe.

On top of all this, some of our more shadowy entities appear to be trying to astro-turf a further inquiry into Turkey’s dealings.

Put more simply: Somebody is  trying to start some shit about Qatar, Turkey, and the super-evil terrorists (seriously) al-Nusra.

They seem to be the usual puppet type outlets.

Free Iranian: US Defense Intelligence Agency says Turkey, Qatar supported al-Nusra Front

The provocatively titled Free Iranian in turn uses as their source the prominent and esteemed Nordic Monitor, whatever that is.

Nordic Monitor: US Defense Intelligence Agency says Turkey, Qatar supported al-Nusra Front

Turkey and Qatar likely provided support to Syrian al-Qaeda group Jabhat al-Nusra, or the al-Nusra Front, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) concluded in 2016.

According to a classified DIA report, a copy of which was seen by Nordic Monitor, it was concluded that the al-Nusra Front “probably received logistical, financial and material assistance from the elements of the Turkish and Qatari governments.” The report, dated June 2, 2016, provided a detailed account of the status of major combatants in Syria with al-Nusra boasting as many as 10,400 fighters due to increased recruitment.

The DIA underlined that al-Nusra maintained a supply of equipment and a robust facilitation network to sustain supplies, ammunition and weapons flows. It drew attention to its cooperation with opposition groups and how it adapted to challenges to participate in key battles against the Syrian regime.

I don’t know if this is true or not. But it’s either true or someone wants people believe it is—probably bad guys either way.

Either way, this is bad.

But let’s finish by circling back to where we began: The Mediterranean.

Recall Greece requested NATO’s aid.

New York Times: Greece to Ask for NATO’s Support in Dispute With Turkey

ATHENS, Greece — Greece’s prime minister said Sunday he will ask other NATO members at the alliance’s London summit to support Greece in the face of fellow member Turkey’s attempts to encroach on Greek sovereignty, notably last week’s agreement with Libya delineating maritime borders in the Mediterranean.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis told the ruling conservative New Democracy party’s congress Sunday that NATO can’t remain indifferent when one of its members “blatantly violates international law” and that a neutral approach is to the detriment of Greece, which has never sought to ratchet up tensions in the area.

Greece had a response the other day that amused observers of the situation.

Of course, we know that NATO is bound up in knots about what to do about Turkish aggression already.

So Greece made some moves of their own. This one from the other day amused many observers of the conflicts in the region.

It is funny, in its own sick war way.

A Greek fighter jet got missile lock on a Turkish ship.

And,obviously, Greece leaked the photo on purpose. It’s not like the pilot could leak it without knowing who it was, yeah?

Basically, they pulled the Top Gun move and put target lock on a Turkish boat to scare the crap out of them. That’s what freaked Cougar out in the movie to the point that he could fly anymore.

It is pretty scary stuff.

Especially given the scope.

Vice: Greece and Turkey Are Playing Dangerous War Games on the Aegean Sea

“It seems to me at times that whenever a top official from Turkey makes a statement, it is a statement that involves talk of war,” Greece’s new defense minister, Nikos Panagiotopoulos, told VICE News. “War in Syria. War in the Middle East. War in the Aegean. Now if that isn’t aggressive rhetoric, then I’m wondering what type of rhetoric it is.”

Over the past few years, Greece, Cyprus, and Israel have held an escalating series of large-scale military drills aimed at enhancing cooperation between their air and naval forces, while simultaneously pushing forward with an ambitious scheme to construct a pipeline transporting the newly discovered oil and gas to markets in the European Union. The aim is to strengthen relations between allies, while reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian energy resources, but it’s impossible to divorce these moves from the broader strategic picture of regional powers unsettled by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s bellicose rhetoric and growing image as a source of regional instability.

The latest source of tension between the NATO allies is Turkey’s dispatch of drill ships, escorted by warships, into Cypriot waters.

Greece is treaty-bound to defend Cyprus’s territorial integrity, and Turkish encroachment on the island republic’s territory is a source of growing anxiety for Athens.

And we’ve seen just how large the scope it is—which is much longer than it appeared to be.

Finally, just to really put what Turkish influence under Erdogan means, Erdogan said that if offered, he would not accept the Nobel Peace Prize. Because it’s racist.

Now here’s a fun fact: As it happens, the people of northern Syria literally think the Turkish backed militia are worse than ISIS.

Worse than ISIS.

That’s not supposed to be a thing in real life.

So let’s take a brief look at what phase of Erdogan’s plan we’re in and how it’s going.

We can now see that Erdogan’s proposed safe zone and ethnic cleansing of the Kurds are of apiece.

And yet there always appears to be another thing with that guy. But here’s a brief reflection on the last couple of months.

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – October 9 is an unforgettable day for the people of northern Syria who, after years of unrest, thought they could finally build a new life. The first whistle of a brand new war was blown by Turkish forces and their Syrian proxies against Kurdish forces in northern Syria, and the end is still far from sight.

Two months after the ironically-termed Operation Peace Spring was launched, Kurdish officials and commanders continue to accuse Turkey and its proxies of invasion, war crimes and human rights violations, typically in Sari Kani (Ras al-Ain) and Gire Spi (Tal Abyad).

Turkey was able to seize control of Sari Kani and Gire Spi, along with surrounding villages, from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Some villages surrounding Ain Issa and Tel Tamr have also been taken from Kurdish control.

The operation was aimed at driving the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) – the backbone of the SDF – up to 32km out of the Turkey-Syria border region.

Turkey hopes to use the land to establish a “safe zone” in which to resettle mostly Arab Syrian refugees who have fled to Turkey since 2011.

So that brings us today and the “resettlement” of Syrian war refugees from Turkey to this part of northern Syria even though this isn’t where they are from and they don’t want to be there.

But the more I hear about the plan, the more it sounds like there’s something weird going on. And it’s bad.

I’ve started thinking about this more and more.

A million?

A million in this dark space to the right?

By Bill497 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0

Will they all fit there?

Foregn Policy: Turkey Begins Resettling Refugees in Northeastern Syria

Continued reports of atrocities by Turkish-backed forces raise concerns about ethnic cleansing.

Turkey has begun shuttling Syrian refugees across the border into northeastern Syria despite dangerous security conditions in the border towns—the first sign Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is moving forward with his plan to resettle some 3 million Syrians living in Turkey into 20 miles of formerly Kurdish-held territory.

Local media reports and information provided to Foreign Policy by the northeastern Syria-based Rojava Information Center show that small numbers of Syrian refugees are now trickling across the border into northeastern Syria just two months after Erdogan and his proxy forces invaded the region. The violent military operation has killed hundreds of Kurdish fighters and civilians and displaced 200,000 people.

Oh, I see. It’s actually three million refugees. This is just another bait and switch thing.

And it’s in a place that has been hemorrhaging hundreds of thousands of people because it’s been made basically uninhabitable by Erdogan’s war and ethnic cleansing campaign.

Plus, Turkey is opening up the wall there, i.e. the border crossing that ISIS had been using until the SDF closed it five years ago.

So Erdogan is creating a high density population of what will become former refugees and now newly internally displaced people (IDP) who are widely believed to have become highly radicalized during their sojourn in the Turkish refugee camps.

And they get their own ISIS border crossing? It’s Christmas in Syria.

Is Erdogan trying to build a Terrorist Incubator? I can’t believe this guy. He still manages to surprise me.

Well, hopefully the world will respond.

But first, they’ll have to grapple with Erdogan’s cunning use of the Race Card to justify his… well, everything, really.

So Erdogan is really the only true defender of Islamic civilization—am I understanding this correctly?

He’s going to usher in the new golden age of Islam? He alone can save everyone?

Yup.

Jerusalem Post: Erdogan bashes Israel, calls on Muslims to unite against the West

Ankara claimed it is the “lone voice” standing up for Palestinians today.

In a speech to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan slammed Israel and called for Islamic unity among the “brothers and sisters” to confront the West and conspiracies against Islamic countries. Turkey’s ruler insinuated that Turkey was a victim of “terrorist attacks” because of its “principled stance” against “oppression in Jerusalem.”

I don’t know a lot about Palestinian or Israeli politics, but I’m pretty sure that somehow this can be seen as offensive to both Israel and Palestine (whom Erdogan could give a shit about), and also a whole lot of other countries and nations.

Hell, this is even a Fuck You to Iran.

Erdogan is rolling.

Erdogan claimed that Israel was making the “situation in Jerusalem and Palestine” worse every day. He said that Israel doesn’t recognize justice, law, rights or humanity and that this “deepens the  crisis in the region against Muslims.” Turkey is seeking to champion Islamic countries aganst Israel, Ankara claimed. “We will never stop defending the rights of the Palestinians and standing in solidarity with all the oppressed.” Turkey is involved in an expanding military campaign and occupation of northern Syria that has caused more than 150,000 people to flee Afrin in 2018, and 200,000 to flee areas near Tel Abyad in recent months. Turkey doesn’t see those people as oppressed, according to the speech.

Turkey’s leader claimed that the country wants to “better protect children, women, elderly and disabled against western threats.” In this part of the speech he stressed conservative, far-right and family value themes, arguing that the West was attacking the concept of the family. “The more we protect our family structure,” Turkey’s leader said, indicating that

OK, you know what? This is an empirical statement at this point.

That means we can use data to assess his statements about being the champion of women and children, right?

So let’s check the data.

Hurriyet: Police disperse women’s ‘Las Tesis’ dance protest in Istanbul

Police have dispersed a protest in Istanbul where women sang their rendition of the feminist protest song “A rapist in your path,” which has gained popularity around the world after it was first performed in Chile.

About 300 women gathered on Dec. 8 in the Kadiköy district of Istanbul province for their version of the protest song first performed by the Chilean feminist group “Las Tesis.”

Seven demonstrators were detained after a brawl between protesters and police.

The slogans shouted by the demonstrators included “elements of crime,” according to an Istanbul Governor’s Office statement.

OK, this last one looks particularly serious.

I mean, look at them come out in force. She must be very dangerous. Like, some kind of super Fem-Criminal.

That’s the only reasonable expectation, right?

Wait—what?

She’s the mayor.

She’s the fucking mayor.

And this is the kind of shit Erdogan wants to export to the region and to the world?

I’m only doing this because the media is pissing me off about it and somebody asked me what they were doing.

And I’m going to show all my work including the research in Arabic and I don’t even read Arabic.

What’s bothering me it that there’s been these festering sorta spoken-unspoken inferences being drawn from the fact that the shooter quoted a line associated with al Queda.

Inferences of fairly profound political implications too, but which are not treated with the gravity they deserve.

And the problem with that is then people try to come up with stupid conclusions for their own self-serving political agendas.

Let’s begin with some basic reporting.

Yahoo! News: Military base shooter assailed US as ‘nation of evil’

Miami (AFP) – A Saudi military student reportedly condemned America as a “nation of evil” in an online manifesto prior to opening fire Friday at a US naval base, killing three people before being shot dead by police.

There’s your basic headline and opening. Interesting. Provocative. “Oooh. Nation of evil.”

Provocative, but, as well shall see, not very useful. The problem is that it pretends to be.

I guess it’s not supposed to be because they don’t want to draw too many unsupported inferences, which is good.

But it’s kinda dumb when you find out there is more information, which just makes readers feel like the headlines are disingenuous.

And they’re not wrong. And that’s bad for journalism

Here’s more information from the same piece.

The SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors jihadist media, identified him as Mohammed al-Shamrani, saying he had posted a short manifesto on Twitter that read: “I’m against evil, and America as a whole has turned into a nation of evil.”

“I’m not against you for just being American, I don’t hate you because your freedoms, I hate you because every day you supporting, funding and committing crimes not only against Muslims but also humanity,” he wrote.

First of all, this SITE group was waaaaaaay ahead on this story. It was noticeable and a little stunning.

Like, they had documentary evidence while major outlets were still reporting nothing was known. And that all turned out to be correct.

So the media should have had a head-start—this was on Twitter—and not have been limited to government information. But whatever.

And then the story devolves into some nonsense about relations with Saudi Arabia and if this is Terrorism writ large and all that. You can read it but I don’t feel the need to amplify it here.

I mean, maybe? But maybe we can check on some of what’s going on? Maybe?

Or we could just charge into making broad generalizations to advocate for significant national policy shifts.

Yeah. Like, bracketing your position on American foreign intervention: We’re going to move a frickin’ army because this guy called us names before going on a murderous rampage?

Or we could look at what was said, see if there’s any context, and figure out how much inference we can draw about global politics from this.

Spoiler Alert: Not much.

I mean, calling America a nation of evil isn’t really groundbreaking stuff in the world today. It’s pretty common and in some places, they say “Death to America” about stuff that isn’t about America.

Like, obviously this isn’t the same thing, but the popular known “Death to America” is itself instructive.

And it has its own Wikipedia page!

Wikpedia: Death to America

That’s our first clue that this isn’t just a sentiment, but a “thing.” One we should therefore learn a smidge about.

The literal meaning of the Persian phrase “Marg bar Āmrikā” is “Death to America”. In most official Iranian translations, the phrase is translated into English as the less offensive “Down with America”.^[4][5] The chant “Death to America” has come to be employed by various anti-American groups and protesters worldwide.^[6]

So this isn’t as intense as it sounds when any given individual says it, which seems pretty important.

It’s how some people complain about the world. “Damn the neoliberal imperialist agenda!!” might be a response to a loss in soccer to a European club.

Digging a bit further, this made me laugh out loud:

My Persian Corner: DEATH TO AMERICA EXPLAINED & OTHER PERSIAN PHRASES RELATED TO DEATH

Persian Phrases related to death
مرگ
Marg!
Literally: Death!

English equivalent: Shut up!

So drawing massive and far reaching generalizations from, no matter how rhetorically inflammatory it might be, what is fundamentally a very common line.

I my God, I love the internet. There’s more great stuff in there like how the Persian equivalent of “Damn you!” is the far more evocative, “May they take your washed, dead body.”

This is a very poetic and flowery language. And if we’re to understand, that matters. Plus, this is just amazing.

So, even putting aside that useful context, you don’t have to know a lot about Islam or radical movements to be able to “quote” America is a “nation of evil.” I quote Harry Potter; that doesn’t make me a witch or wizard or whatever Dobby is.

Especially because it’s really just the “thinking man’s Death to America,” which, as one might surmise, isn’t really all the thoughtful.

The fuller quote given above is really just a feeble effort to suggest that the speaker has considered the problem of group guilt and resolved it.

I’m not against you for just being American, I don’t hate you because your freedoms, I hate you because every day you supporting, funding and committing crimes not only against Muslims but also humanity.

He hasn’t resolved the enduring philosophical problem of individual versus group responsibility and fuck him for thinking so.

But I digress.

So now, let’s do a whirlwind tour of me looking up what I could actually find on this guy’s “philosophy” and his radicalization.

I spent like maybe half an hour looking stuff up before football started. You can decide how I did compared to CNN.

Keep in mind I speak no Arabic. But I have Google.

Let’s start with America’s paper of record.

The New York Times: Officials Continue Investigating Gunman’s Motive in Navy Base Attack

The authorities are still investigating a motive.

Investigators were trying to determine what motivated the gunman.

Senator Rick Scott, Republican of Florida, and Representative Matt Gaetz, a Republican whose district includes Pensacola, both described the shooting as an act of terrorism. But federal law enforcement officials said it was too early to establish the gunman’s motive.

The SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors jihadist activity, cited a Twitter account with a name matching the gunman that had posted a “will” calling the United States a “nation of evil” and criticizing its support for Israel.

SITE said the account had also quoted Osama bin Laden, the former Qaeda leader, and was critical of United States foreign policy.

“I’m not against you for just being American,” the posts said. “I don’t hate you because your freedoms, I hate you because every day you supporting, funding and committing crimes not only against Muslims but also humanity.”

The account could not be independently verified, and law enforcement officials did not confirm that it was connected to the gunman.

That was way down in the article, by the way. By which I mean, the interesting stuff.

So there’s that SITE outlet I mentioned I had run into before. When I first saw it, it seemed people thought of them as rabble-rousers, but ones who had broken stories in the past. The New York Times uses them as a source anyway.

But since reporting on what other people say about real stuff instead of the real stuff itself is sorta the media’s thing these days, so you can also just go to CNN for something like this.

Tweet purportedly from gunman in Pensacola Navy base shooting suggests al Qaeda inspiration

Twitter account posted shortly before alert of attack

The first call alerting law enforcement of an incident at the Florida base came about 6:51 a.m. (7:51 a.m. ET), according to the Escambia County Sheriff’s Office.

Twelve minutes before, at 6:39 a.m., a Twitter account with the handle @M7MD_SHAMRANI posted a message addressed to the American people, declaring hate for Americans because of their “crimes” against Muslims.

CNN has been unable to verify the source of the tweet which was previously reported on by SITE Intelligence Group. Law enforcement has not commented on it.

However, given the shooter was training at a US naval air station, it is notable that the Twitter account @M7MD_SHAMRANI re-tweeted a Military Times post about last month’s fatal crash at Vance Air Force Base in Oklahoma.

The Twitter message posted Friday morning made no reference to an impending attack.

The Twitter account is listed as being created in 2012. Before it was taken down on Friday afternoon, CNN was able to capture some of the tweet activity by the account.

When asked about the account, Twitter spokeswoman Aly Pavela confirmed the account was suspended and said, “That’s all we have to share.”

Several aspects to what was written in the message point toward al Qaeda inspiration.

The Twitter message stated, “America as a whole has turned into a nation of evil.”

Those were the exact words American terrorist cleric Anwar al-Awlaki used in a message posted in March 2010 in calling for jihad against the United States, suggesting the person posting the message was deeply familiar with al-Awlaki’s propaganda.

Before he was killed in a drone strike in September 2011, al-Awlaki had become a senior figure in al Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen. In the years before and since his death al-Awlaki’s online sermons provided inspiration for many of those plotting jihadi terror in the West.

Holy crap, there is a whole video in there reporting on basically the fact that they read the website SITE, and then they use that as the springboard to talk about how intensely this guy hated America.

I mean, he did. He said it. But what’s this a;-Awlaki stuff?

It seems like they are implying that the shooter is a knowledgable guy in this area. A real thinker, him.

We’ll see if that follows from his quotation. Maybe he’s a real scholar.

And maybe I’m a witch.

But since there are important and serious ramifications to the nature of his feelings and activities, maybe follow up on some of those leads, eh?

So we have his Twitter ID: @M7MD_SHAMRANI

But OH NOES! Twitter had deleted the account! Everyone says so! What are we to do now??

Google it, stupids.

But first, let’s check to see if Twitter claims to know anything.

OK, now that’s something. This guy clams to have screen shot info from the shooter’s Twitter account before it was closed that is instructive to his thinking and goals.

And this guy, when I checked anyway, was running around trying to tell people this and nobody was paying any attention.

Also, note that this guy tries to link things to Turkey. That immediately perks my interest for obvious reasons.

But it also re-emphasizes why we need to know more: There are serious political implications here. And I don’t think there’s actually much of anything to this claim about the nature of the shooter’s radicalization.

Plus, I’m immediately suspicious because Erdogan’s particular brand of Islamo fascism focuses on restoring the Ottoman Empire.

This is in Arabic.

That doesn’t prove anything per se and you do get pro Turkish stuff in Arabic, but Turkish is much more likely for someone with an intimate connection to Turkish political theology such that he would be motivated by it to commit murder.

So let’s keep looking. Back to Google. Maybe CNN doesn’t have Google? Anyway.

Oh cool—that gives me his name in Arabic too.

محمد الشمراني

Which means I can confirm that the screen shots in the Twitter above are likely legit—or at least possibly legit. I don’t read Arabic and the Twitter screenshots don’t give the @M7MD_SHAMRANI handle, but I can compare the writing even if I can’t read it.

So next we follow the link to @DRHAKEN that the Tweeter above helpfully provides, and we can both identify who he is and check out the Tweets.

So here’s a screen shot of his Twitter page with translation provided by, once again, our friends at Google.

OK, so we have him, and we have the dates of the Tweets, so I’ll post them here with their translations.

(There are actually only two despite there being three screenshots in the Tweet above.)

So there’s the post with video and here’s the translation.

OK, Death to America. Great. Even the fact that Iran’s government sucks is Death to America.

So yeah, the shooter is attracted to a real thinker here.

Let’s check the other one.

And the translation.

Awesome. More Death to America. I mean, it’s also Death to Europe. But it’s all just Death to America.

It’s like their angry, bitter, hateful McDonalds.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bK39bG0loM

But that’s just the guy’s Twitter. Assuming he’s a person of some influence, I’d expect there to be a bit more.

I googled his description and titles and found nothing. I really didn’t know what to look for. Googling in Arabic didn’t help here either.

So back to “Google fundamentals”: Don’t try to google the description you’re looking for, google the thing itself.

Let the game come to you.

In this case, the thing itself is that I have a name of a person I don’t understand.

Ah-ha. The Arabic included a title. My problem was I needed to extract the name from the title.

And then I can google that, although the English spellings are essentially non-standard which makes it a bit of a pain, but here’s what I found with the Wikipedia articles on the sources.

Wikipedia: Policy Exchange

Policy Exchange: Engaging with Islamists: what makes us think it will ever work?

Coincidentally I had just watched two interesting recent filmed interviews with other Islamists. The first was a Brookings interview with the former leader of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood in exile, Ali al Bayanouni, conducted by two distinguished scholars of Political Islamism, Shadi Hamid and Will McCants. For the benefit of non-Arabophones, Hamid and McCants speak in English: al Bayanouni responds in Classical Arabic.

The second – a year or so older – was a long and lively discussion in several parts and far more colloquial Arabic conducted by the Palestinian Islamist in exile, Azzam al Tamimi, with the Emirati Hassan al Duqqi, formerly a senior member of the Islamist group Al Islah and by his own admission a member of the International Shura Council of the Muslim Brotherhood. Al Duqqi is now associated with the Ummah Party of Hakim al Mutairi, a Kuwaiti, who holds views not so very different from those of Al Qaeda or the Islamic State and has reportedly given financial backing to Ahrar al Sham, one of the largest Islamist militias operating in Syria.

OK. Bad guy.

Kinda a generic bad guy such that even a conservative analysis group describes him as not very different from some other Al Qaeda and ISIS types, and those types actually try to murder one another over diffrences of bellief.

But I guess even from this point of view, who really cares? Not much of interest. Death to America. Bad guy.

See? McDonalds. McDonalds of terror, but McDondals nonetheless.

I’m not trying to diminish terrorism, but if we’re talking about radicalization and what motivates murder, we need to know what we’re talking about here.

Let’s look at the next one first.

Wikipedia: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Carnegie Endowment: Kuwaiti Salafism and Its Growing Influence in the Levant

During the Gulf War, most Kuwaiti Salafis escaped to Saudi Arabia, where they rapidly began to play active parts in these debates. They were able to integrate quickly into the different Salafi networks and groups in Saudi Arabia because they were often connected to Saudi Salafis through kinship. 8 Many of them became active participants in the Sahwa movement. Upon their return to their home country after the war, these individuals became pioneers of the haraki wing of Kuwaiti Salafism, as was the case for Hakim al-Mutairi, Sheikh Hamid al-Ali, and Abd al-Razzaq al-Shayiji.

OK, he’s a Salafi.

I know of them, but don’t really know crap about the Salafi movement.

To Google!

Wikipedia: Salafi movement

The Salafi movement, also called Salafist movement, Salafiya, and Salafism, is a reform^[1] branch^[2][3] or revivalist^[4] movement within Sunni Islam^[5] that developed in Egypt in the late 19th century as a response to Western European imperialism.^{[4][6][7][8][9]} It had roots in the 18th-century Wahhabi movement that originated in the Najd region of modern-day Saudi Arabia.^[10] It advocated a return to the traditions of the salaf, the first three generations of Muslims, which they preached as the unadulterated, pure form of Islam. Those generations included the Islamic prophet Muhammad and his companions (the Sahabah), their successors (the Tabi‘un), and the successors of the successors (the Taba Tabi‘in).

OK, so bad guy. But one of a myriad of these sects of Bad Guy-ism that mix and match and quarrel and whatever.

It’s a big umbrella concept, and not a lot to draw on. Besides that, it’s totally consistent with the possibility that the shooter is simply just some garden variety McDonalds terrorist.

And now that we have some generalized information, it’s easier to look up the Shooter’s Twitter interest on Arabic Wikipedia and confirm we have the right guy

Wikipedia: أ.د. حاكم المطيري (Google Translate)

Hakim Abbasan Al-Humaidi Al-Mutairi was born in Kuwait on November 7, 1964 , Professor of Interpretation and Hadith at the College of Sharia at Kuwait University. He is an updated jurist, writer, Islamic thinker, and political activist. The Umma Party, which he co-founded, is the Secretary-General of the Umma Conference , and the head of the Kuwaiti Umma Party . [1] His name was mentioned in the list of terrorist supporters announced by Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt in 2017

So he was in the Who’s Who of Terrorism special issue of 2017. Swell.

Now, here’s the thing that jumped out of me and inspired me to share this:

The guy from Twitter above had screen shots with useful data, but offered conclusions and interpretations that are not supported by the data.

Given the situation with Turkey, that matters. What’s perhaps even more fascinating is that he was offering the data that allowed people to see that his claims were not supported by his own data.

I don’t know what his angle is, but he’s like an accidentally super-helpful troll, so just ignore his opinion and take what’s useful.

And this also means that the media isn’t offering a lot of useful content when they breathlessly speak of this “nation of evil” crap.

It’s not a deep statement.

And then, when you look a bit deeper at what he was looking at, that’s not very deep either.

Did he look at other, more serious attempts at radical jihadi thought? Perhaps. But then why was he dicking around with this?

He may well be some kind of theological mastermind who believed in global anti-imperial revolution and that radical Islam was the way which meant his divine purpose was to shoot a couple of people and die.

But it doesn’t look like it. And it’s not clear how serious a conclusion to real theological introspection that would be anyway.

Looks  like another angry schmuck who, instead of finding some way to address with his issues—to find help—decided to take out his aggression in vicious and futile fashion. It seems likely that militant Islam is just the flavor he happened to choose.

The issue that that flavor is so readily available is certainly a real problem. As is the fact that this is a thing that happens.

Which is why it makes perfect sense for law enforcement to urge restraint. Like, maybe there’s some more There there, but there is every reason to believe there is not.

And unless more is found, there’s no reason to react beyond trying to learn more.

It would be incredibly foolish to draw any conclusions about global policy or call for a reorientation of attitudes to whole groups of people over McDonalds radicalism.

We know from experience that the role of leadership in handling public fears is crucial to pursuing rational policy response.

It’s not well known, but Japanese internment in the US didn’t occur in Hawaii despite a much larger population of people of Japanese extraction.

The difference is that Hawaii was a different theater of operations than Hawaii. This means that Hawaii had a different general, one who was not a self-avowed and proud racist like Gen. DeWitt, commanding general of Western Defense Command, a man who testified to Congress that a “Jap is a Jap” and that “a piece of paper” can’t change that.

In Hawaii, instead of rounding up all the Japanese looking people, they just reassured the people that there had been no sabotage, they were loyal, and everything was cool.

And it was fine.

So this stuff matters.

You don’t even have to be a big advocate of Saudi Arabia to think radical policy moves in response to this would be dumb.

If there’s more information, sure: We’ll see.

But there’s something obnoxious about watching the news media pretend to understand something when a brief perusal of Google shows they do not.

I feel like a total poser using the term “SitRep” as it sounds like a term of trade, but it really is a lot shorter than spelling the same thing out in the title and it’s well known that it means a report on a situation.

Next I’ll be trying to use jargon.

Anyway, the situation in northern Syria continues to be a kind of detente while the political situation—particularly the preliminary posturing before real negotiations occur—develops.

But with the usual low level background violence. It’s like constant static right now.

Most significantly here is Erdogan’s “evolving” position on Turkey’s mission in Syria.

This is pretty messed up.

AMNNews: Turkish military will leave Syria when Syrians say ‘thank you, you may leave’: Erdogan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated on Saturday that Turkish forces won’t leave Syrian territory until the people of the country ask Ankara to withdraw.

“We will not leave Syria until the people of Syria say, ‘Thank you, you may leave now’”, the president said at a rally in Istanbul.

I’m not completely clear and maybe there is a language issue, but is this, like, he’s pledging to work to help them until life there is so good that they thank him for it?

Because that’s what I thought he meant the last couple of times he talked like this.

This is starting to sound more like he’s going to hold their heads under water and until they thank him for the privilege.

I wonder if Erdogan even thinks those are different things.

Increasingly though, news media is managing more and more to articulate that this is a load of crap.

Jersulem Post: Turkey’s changing story on Syria: From self-defense to long-term control

Turkey’s narrative is slowly changing on its expanding role in northern Syria.

Turkey says it won’t leave Syria until foreign countries leave “or Syrian people demand the country leave,” according to the Turkish president. This is part of Turkey’s changing narrative on its expanding role in northern Syria. It claimed in 2016 that it had to invade northern Syria to fight ISIS, then it invaded Kurdish regions claiming it was “fighting terrorism,” and then claimed it was taking over Syrian land to re-settle refugees.

Turkey is a sophisticated country with a plethora of pro-government media and diplomats who have articulated the reasons behind Turkey’s various operations in northern Syria. But Turkey is also not consistent in its explanations, often trying to pose each operation as in line with whatever logic suits the ruling party, or messaging to the populace, that is necessary at the time.

Of course, some of the Israeli papers are getting more and more forthright about what and how they think about the Kurdish Question.

Jerusalem Post: If we don’t stand with the Kurds, who should stand with us?

When US President Donald Trump withdrew peacekeeping troops from Northern Syria last month, he executed the latest in a string of historic betrayals by the West towards the Kurdish people.

The parallels are stark and increasingly depressing. The Kurdish struggle for statehood is all too similar to the Jewish one in the early 20th century. If we stay quiet, we discard our history and the principles on which Zionism was founded. The old saying goes that, “Kurds have no friends but the mountains.” It’s time we change that.

When US President Donald Trump withdrew peacekeeping troops from Northern Syria last month, he executed the latest in a string of historic betrayals by the West towards the Kurdish people. They are the largest stateless people in the world and despite the promises made in the past, that isn’t changing today.

And, I mean, more and more of the rest of the world, especially since the NATO summit, is having conversations about it as well—not everyone, of course, but the sorts of people who have such conversations.

ANF News: Gavriye: Erdoğan’s goal is a genocide in North-East Syria

Nazira Gavriye is the co-chair of the autonomous administration in the Cizirê Canton. For her it is clear that Erdoğan intends a genocide in Northern and Eastern Syria / Rojava.

The co-chair of the Cizire canton, Nazira Gavriye, is in Europe for diplomatic talks with various political representatives about the ongoing Turkish invasion attacks against Northern and Eastern Syria.

For Gavriye it is clear that the Erdoğan regime wants to initiate a comprehensive ethnic cleansing in Northern Syria under the guise of alleged security concerns. She spoke to ANF about the current situation in Northern Syria.

Nazira Gavriye, who is a member of the Syriac community, first recalled the history of Turkey and the Ottoman Empire, which is full of genocides against the Christian communities of the Middle East. “With each of these genocides our number became smaller. That they are now forcing Christian clergy within Turkish borders to pray for their war of aggression in Northern Syria is extremely perfidious. Who are these soldiers who are wanted to be prayed for in the churches of the Syriacs, shooting at? The Turkish state has established a network of agents even in our churches,” she said.

Meanwhile, Turkey continues with its campaign of ethnic cleansing that is so justified that the super positive humanitarian resettlement of the Syrian refugees from Idlib that don’t actually want to be in northern Syria are brought in furtively under cover of night.

Let’s just recall for a moment what kind of production values are involved when Turkey wants people to see something they’re doing.

Of course, it’s easy enough to situate all this within the context of the war.

So they’re not even going with theater that the “resettlement” of a place where people already live is an attractive thing.

Which makes sense, since, as we’re increasingly seeing, that’s a tough sell.

Meanwhile, beyond the wilfull misrepresentation of life in northern Syrian and Erdogan’s plans for it, Turkey continues to try to control the politics of the region.

The people who live there don’t think much of the alleged representation of their multi-ethnic population of multiple religions who fiercely advocate that women be given voice.

It looks like the NFL deciding on Ray Rice’s punishment for hitting his fiancee.

That was not solid work.

But whereas the NFL screwed up, this is intentional.

RUDAW: Turkey appoints mayors in recently invaded northern Syrian towns

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — Sari Kani and Gire Spi, Syrian towns recently occupied by Turkey, have been assigned new mayors by the Turkish government.

Abdullah Erin, the governor of Turkey’s Sanliurfa province, which borders Syria, said that Turkey has appointed mayors for both Gire Spi and Sari Kani “in order to create a coordination” in the areas

Wow. I didn’t think anybody was worse than the NFL.

But yeah, Turkey’s telling the people of northern Syria how they should be governed and by whom.

I don’t know a lot about democratic confederalism, and certainly not as much as I feel like I should, but I’m pretty sure this is not going to fly.

Like, two of the things I think I do know about it is that it’s dedicated to reducing the distance between the government and the people through an emphasis on localism (which is really interesting post-Madisonian stuff), and to emphasizing the importance of women’s voices.

The basic idea, I think, is to keep the system both republican and democratic through an emphasis on institutionalizing everyone having a voice at a level of government to which they can feel connected, which is one of the most important things lost with government centralization.

From an American politics point of view, it’s a really neat attempt to bridge the concerns about big government that threatens freedom and the desire for a responsive, robust government to accomplish the public good.

So this is basically the opposite.

Like, literally the frickin’ opposite of everything the people of Rojava have been going for.

So yeah, not going to fly, I don’t think.

So lets finish up by looking at the background to all this: the kinetic static.

Violence on the Ground

Good news is that the patrols are continuing.

In various combinations depending on location.

It remains to be seen how well they’ll work out though.

RUDAW: Mustafa Bali: Turkey continues to violate ceasefire deals, targets Kurds

Mustafa Bali, head of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) media office, told Rudaw on Sunday that Turkey has launched 200 attacks outside of the ceasefire-designated areas of northern Syria, has occupied 80 villages, and committed mass killings in flagrant disregard for US and Russian-brokered deals.

Speaking to Rudaw in Erbil, Bali said although the US decision to pull out of northern Syria created “hopelessness” among Kurdish forces, the SDF does not consider it a betrayal, because US troops continue to act as a “guarantor” in Derik, Qamishli, and Kobane.

Amid reports of further talks between Syria’s Kurds and the regime of Bashar al-Assad, Bali said the SDF will only engage in talks with Damascus to strike a political deal. Regime institutions will not be allowed to return to the Autonomous Administration region under the guise of a military deal, he added.

Turkey is trying to convince the international community to designate the SDF and other Kurdish forces as terrorists. Bali said “the world is not a fool” and has struck deals with the SDF to fight ISIS terrorists.

So yeah, there hasn’t been a lot of reason in the past for this to be particularly promising, Russia’s new affection for buzzing the tower with helicopters notwithstanding.

So I’ll just end-end with a brief rundown of the kinds of generalized but sporadic violence going on—just recall that this isn’t really a true cease fire but a component of the broader, more subtle campaign of ethnic cleansing.

So anyway, skirmishing, theft, fighting, bad guy stuff, etc.

The best parts are always when the bad guys start fighting with each other.

In case you missed it.