[REDACTED COMMENTS: PLACEHOLDER]

CNBC: Pompeo, asked about Turkey crisis, says Trump is ‘fully prepared’ to take military action if needed

We prefer peace to war,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tells CNBC’s Wilfred Frost. “But in the event that kinetic action or military action is needed, you should know that President Trump is fully prepared to undertake that action.”

Pompeo declines to lay out a red line for what action would prompt a U.S. military response.

Trump is under heavy criticism for his decision to withdraw American forces from northern Syria, abandoning the Kurds, who led the ground war against ISIS.

geoduck no quahog

He needs to further explain Article 5 and how that would pertain to this (other than fulfilling Russia’s stated goals):

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one…shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that…each of them…will assist the Party…so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force…

…Article 6 1
For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

…on the territory of Turkey…; on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories …

So, would France need to come to the assistance of Turkey if they were attacked by Pompeo?

We are governed by idiots.

8slim

So we cut and ran from northern Syria to get us out of “endless wars”… and in the aftermath we’re threatening military action. Makes sense.

Reverend

The people on the ground are clearly thrilled.

I really wasn’t expecting to see middle easterners angered by American withdrawal any time soon.

I mean, how in the fuck did we get here?

 

 

If anyone is interested in the refugee/IDP thing, here is a UNHCR report on the demographics of Syrian refugees from before Trump wrote his sternly worded letter.

UNHCR: Situation Syria Regional Refugee Response

And I haven’t seen anything comprehensive from the Red Crescent or the like; just stuff like this:

The RIC, though, has a report on the current crisis:

RIC (Report): Erdogan’s “security zone”: Refugees and humanitarian aid in North East Syria

This report seeks to provide an analysis of the Turkey’s current invasion in terms of its humanitarian impact. We examine Erdogan’s stated reasons for the invasion of North and East Syria, including his proposals for a so-called “security zone” in which to resettle refugees. We also assess the ongoing humanitarian impact of the invasion, as well as analysing the long term impact of the invasion on the stability and security of the region.

Stateside, Stockholm Syndrome Graham was on FOXNews Sunday morning to explain and defend the Trump administration’s policy.

Significant in his remarks, the issue of “the oil” in Syria has finally been raised, and he presents it like Trump split the atom.

I don’t know if his remarks are funny or cringeworthy:

Graham, who last week called President Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Northern Syria “the most screwed up decision I’ve ever seen,” said that after speaking with the president yesterday he is “increasingly optimistic this could turn out very well.”

“The big thing for me is the oil fields,” Graham said. “President Trump is thinking outside the box. I was so impressed with his thinking about the oil. Not only are we going to deny the oil fields falling into Iranian hands. I believe we’re on the verge of a joint venture between us and the Syrian Democratic Forces, who helped destroy ISIS and keep them destroyed, to modernize the oil fields and make sure they get the revenue, not the Iranians, not Assad.”

Here’s an RCP article on it with the video:

RealClearPolitics: Lindsey Graham After Talking To Trump About Syria: “I’m Increasingly Optimistic This Could Turn Out Very Well”

He also explains the proposal to have an internationally administered safe zone between Turkey and the Kurds to keep Turkey safe (no American troops on the ground, but with US air support), with no mention of the displacement of people that would cause, including all of Qamishli and perhaps control of much of the critical M4 highway.

Also, even though the stated point is to get US troops out of conflicts, Saudi Arabia is different because fuck Iran and we need to protect our interests, like the price of oil.

Yes, he actually both unapologetically and unself-consciously explained pretty much all our foreign policy in the region in terms of oil (with a side dish of Israel, which he sort of shoehorns in there). Even to the extent that the point is valid, his explanation does a gross disservice to the troops who have been involved in all this and what they were fighting for on the ground in a blood, sweat, and tears kind of way, though he does manage to say nice things about them too.

Again, funny or fucked? I report, you decide. We’ll see what happens on Tuesday when Erdogan meets with Putin, but I expect literally nobody to support the plan Lindsey outlines.

As for Pelosi, she bounced out of Jordan issuing a statement before the visit but not after, and then hit up Afghanistan, for which she released a statement after but not before. Dunno if there’s any significance to her not saying anything about what went down in Jordan; really wonder what they talked about, since there is no indication that Jordan wants any part of Syria. Of course, all of these developments have the potential to affect Lebanon (which is currently on fire) greatly in both the short and long term, so maybe it’s something like that.

Marciano490

I almost find it reassuring that we sold out our allies for something as craven as oil rather than because of incompetence or personal gain.

Reverend

I can see that. Like, it’s not just not out of the box; it’s an old familiar box. With that comforting musty smell.

You can live in a box like that.
Edit: If you want a dose of incompetence, @Marciano490 , you can consider the security risk that some have expressed.

Specifically, the SDF has been working closely with US Special Forces for three years now. They’ve had an intimate look at US force capabilities, techniques, extent of intel, etc.

And we just forced them into a military alliance where they potentially may be working and fighting side by side with Syrians, Russians, and the odd Iranian here and there, all because we abandoned them.

Looks like the SDF has pulled out of Serekaniye/Ras al-Ain, the city on the central part of the border with Turkey.

SDF has declared that they have withdrawn from the 32 km section of the safe zone for which they had agreed upon for the cease fire (such as it was), between Ras al-Ain and Tel Abiad to its west. Notably, this means that the Turkish backed militias control part of the M4 highway which connects the eastern part of the northern country to the west.

There is fighting reported around Ayn Issa (south of Tal Abiad) and Kobane, with shelling reported in both areas. Here’s an update from the RIC:

Very recent reports on the ground that US forces have withdrawn from Syria to western Iraq.

(Nothing confirmed from MSM as of yet, but reports of this kind have been accurate in the past.) There is video of helicopters flying away and the Kurds sure as hell don’t have helicopters

Here’s a report from the NYPost from Saturday evening on the, at the time, impending withdrawal.

NYPost: Kurdish fighters move away from border as US troops withdraw

Here’s a choice bit:

Defense Secretary Mark Esper, meanwhile, said US troops were continuing their withdrawal from northern Syria, and that no US ground troops would participate in enforcing the cease-fire that Vice President Mike Pence announced Thursday in Ankara.

Nice.

A bunch of the US forces had been parked in the south west of Iraq between Assad controlled territory and oil wells that Assad obviously covets. Not sure what they were accomplishing if they were only going to block his movements for a couple days besides irritating him, but I assume that they had some reason.

It’s been really tough to watch the US movements and not think of what @Gunfighter 09 said about feeling bad for the people at CENTCOM who have to plan for so many bizarre almost contradictory situations.

In that vein, there’s starting to be rumbles from European governments beyond just shock surprise to wondering what to do about ISIS now that the US is out.

 

 

 

 

 

Erdogan is displeased that the five day pause has resulted in Assad’s SAA manning the Syria-Turkey border. Already making strategic noise about it in advance of his meeting on Tuesday with Putin.

Getting kinda threaty.

Google Translation: 

قناة الغد
@AlGhadTV
#Erdogan Discuss with ⁧#Putin Syrian troops deployed in the safe area this week

Attached Article (Translation) said:

Erdogan Discusses With Putin The Deployment Of Syrian Forces In The Safe Area

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday he would discuss the deployment of Syrian government forces in a planned safe area in northern Syria during talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin this week, but warned that Ankara would “implement its plans” unless a solution was found.

Turkey and the United States agreed on Thursday to halt Turkey’s military offensive in northeastern Syria for five days until Kurdish fighters withdraw from the “safe area.”

Erdogan will visit Sochi for talks with Putin on steps to be taken.

At an opening ceremony in the central province of Kayseri, Erdogan said Turkey would “smash the heads” of Kurdish fighters in northern Syria if they did not withdraw from the area within their five-day deadline.

I think I’ve seen this one before.

From the RUDAW piece linked in the Tweet:

Erdogan says won’t let Syrian troops stand in the way of plans for safe zone

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to extend his military operation in northern Syria into regime-held areas if he and Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot strike a deal when they meet on Tuesday.

. . .

Speaking at an event in Kayseri, central Turkey on Saturday, Erdogan implied he was not happy with the arrangement that brings the Syrian Arab Army to the Turkish border.

“There are the [Syrian] regime forces – which are protected by Russia – in a part of the operation’s geography. I will discuss this issue with Mr. Putin on Tuesday because we have to find a solution,” he said.

A solution “has to happen. If not, we will continue with our own plans,” he said. The ultimate goal of Turkey’s operation is for the safe zone to stretch 440 kilometres from the Euphrates River to Iraq.

The five-day ceasefire will expire on Tuesday, coinciding with Erdogan’s visit to Russia

 

Reverend

Does anyone have any idea or theory or whatever on why Erdogan seems to be the only leader on Earth who does’t care if ISIS flourishes on his country’s border?

I don’t get it.

Couperin47

He is far more interested in solving the Kurdish issue, the way the Turks ‘solved’ their Armenian issue. After a century of the heritage of Ataturk’s secularization, he’s pretty sure the Islamic nature of his nation is simply far too cosmopolitan to be enticed by the blandishments of ISIS fundamentalism ?

Darnell’s Son

Furthermore, he can “solve” his Kurdish problem, then pivot and rejoin everyone else in trying to extinguish ISIS. He probably hopes no one remembers about the Kurds once ISIS is gone, and based on world history, he’s probably right.

Reverend

Impeachment fans have been wondering what Pelosi’s next move would be…

Who had Jordan in the pool?

SotH: Pelosi Leads High-Level Bipartisan Delegation to Jordan

Have to assume this isn’t just an IR or a humanitarian mission given what’s going on back in Washington, yeah?

I wonder what she’s up to.

Couperin47

Complete speculation, of course, but the Hashemite dynasty are amazing survivors, their nation’s situation has always been even more precarious than Poland and the fact that they are still there is a testament to sheer political agility in the face of 2, 3 and sometimes 4 sided power struggles. If the Democrats wanted to discuss with the Saudis how and why unfettered support of Trump and Netanyahu might not be in either the medium or long term interests of anyone including SA and the USA, the best way to do so might be obliquely via an intelligent, articulate and inherently sympathetic interlocutor, and Abdullah fits that bill perfectly.

barbed wire Bob

Kurds make up roughly 20% of Turkey’s population. Since 1978, when Ocalan established the PKK, the Kurds have been waging an insurgency with the ultimate goal of establishing an independent state. That’s the long term threat to Turkey and Erdogan knows it. The chaos in Syria allowed the Kurds to establish a semi-autonomous region in northern Syria and they had a pretty good shot at establishing an independent state. If that happened then Turkey (and Iran and Iraq which also have large minority populations of Kurds) feared it would accelerate the secessionist movement within Turkey and in the other Kurdish areas of the Middle East. The threat from ISIS, on the other hand, is transitory in nature and, from Turkey’s perspective, not much of a threat at all. In fact, there have been some allegations that Turkey has been collaborating with ISIS. So, it makes sense that Turkey will use this opportunity to crush the Kurds first and then deal with ISIS later

geoduck no quahog

Has anyone heard a prediction that this border incursion solution in Turkey/Syria will be used as a model for the next Russian land grab in Ukraine (or elsewhere?). It seems like a useful model for Trump and Putin.

Here’s an up to date report from the ground by the Rojava Information Center. No blue check but they check out and are used by major sources (wonder why no blue check…)

One thing to point out: They are very restrained in their mention of a limited number of unusual burns. Lots of verifiably bogus accounts of Turkish use of white phosphorous being shared, so it’s notable that they are not making that claim.

Not mentioned in the report:

• There is at least one Syrian city in Kurdish controlled territory, Jarablus near Manbij, where there are pro-SNA protests, identifiable by the flags.
• There are a couple of cities in Kurdish controlled areas that demonstrated against SAA forces entering, even though the were ostensibly there to protect them. (It’s probably notable that none of these cities appear to be very close to the border where the violence is concentrated.)

Update from the Medical Convoy:

 

 

OK, so this might be the most 21st century thing I’ve ever seen.

Looks like Russia is going hard at the SNA on the far western front. Air support and shelling reported.

Turkish reconnaissance planes reported in the mid-border Tel Abiad and Ras al-Aim area.

Russian planes in the Manbij region seem to be keeping Turkish planes at bay.