This is a good summary of the state of the situation as of Friday afternoon (EST):

And now some Rojavan propaganda from Ras al-Ain/Serekaniye under siege posted Saturday morning (local time):

https://twitter.com/0000rizgar4545/status/1185454310504763392?s=20

More propaganda, this time about the enemy:

https://twitter.com/0000rizgar4545/status/1185423690558824448?s=20

https://twitter.com/kurdistannews24/status/1184483740338114562?s=20

 

This piece from 2015 is long, but the first section has a really good explanation of why ISIS started operating in Syria, which of course is how we ended up there, and the forms that they’ve taken on the ground.

The Guardian: Why Isis fights

For more than a century, Dabiq was one of northern Syria’s forsaken villages, a speck on a vast agricultural plain between the Turkish border and the deserts of Iraq, which hardly seemed likely to shape the fate of nations. A weathered sign at its entrance said 4,000 people lived there, most of whom appeared to have left by 2013, driven out over time by a lack of work – and lately by insurrection. For the first three years of Syria’s civil war, the arrival of a strange car would lure bored children to the town’s otherwise empty streets, scattering cats and chickens as they scampered after it. Little else moved.

Dabiq’s few remaining men worked on the odd building project: a half-finished mosque, a humble house for one local who had just returned after 10 years labouring in Lebanon, or a fence for the shrine that was the town’s only showpiece – the tomb of Sulayman ibn Abd al-Malik. The Ummayad caliph was buried under a mound of earth in 717, which over many centuries had somehow grown into a small hill. The war was happening elsewhere, it seemed.

Martin Churlov on why Isis fights – audio long read
That was until the jihadists of Islamic State (Isis) arrived in early 2014, an event that the Dabiq elders had feared from the moment the war began – and which the new arrivals had anticipated for much longer. To the foreigners, and the leaders of the new militant juggernaut who were beckoning them, the war had by then entered a new phase that would transform the tussle for power in Syria into something far more grand and important. For them, the conflict that was slicing the country apart was not merely, as the Syrian opposition had seen it, a modern struggle between a ruthless state and a restive underclass. The jihadis instead saw themselves at the vanguard of a war that many among them believed had been preordained in the formative days of Islam.

White Helmets [Edit: I mistakenly identified these rescue workers as White Helmets.] headed to Ras al-Ain (a.k.a. Sari Kani or Serekaniye in Kurdish) even though it’s still a combat zone to help with medical, evac, S&R, etc.

BroodsSexton

This really is the blueprint for some crazy postmodern WWIII. Everyone fighting someone. No one fighting everyone. Someone fighting no one. And no one to drive the car.

The Aristocrats!

Funny you mention it..

Part of the fucking center of Qamishli, the capital of Rojava, has been held by Syria for a couple of years. And I mean the center: a couple neighborhoods, services like hospitals, schools, mosques, etc.

They hold the fucking airport for fucks sake. And the border crossing. It’s like if China occupied East Boston and part of Southie and maybe a couple of the bridges and everyone was just sorta fine with it and went about their business.

I’ve tried to figure out how the government worked and it appears that nobody has any fucking idea. It looks basically impossible.

norm from cheers

I have seen reports saying it was more then POTUS is saying here.. I also can’t imagine Erdogan and the Kurds liking Trump comparing them and their military to kids who you let fight for a bit before pulling them apart.

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

Just spoke to President @RTErdogan of Turkey. He told me there was minor sniper and mortar fire that was quickly eliminated. He very much wants the ceasefire, or pause, to work. Likewise, the Kurds want it, and the ultimate solution, to happen. Too bad there wasn’t…..

…..this thinking years ago. Instead, it was always held together with very weak bandaids, & in an artificial manner. There is good will on both sides & a really good chance for success. The U.S. has secured the Oil, & the ISIS Fighters are double secured by Kurds & Turkey….

….I have just been notified that some European Nations are now willing, for the first time, to take the ISIS Fighters that came from their nations. This is good news, but should have been done after WE captured them. Anyway, big progress being made!!!!

Reverend

You mean is it true the violence since the cease fire was announced is isolated sniper fire and mortars?

It doesn’t seem so. In fact, there was enough fighting around Ras al-Ain and Ain Issa to have territory switch hands. And there appear to be consistent reports on shelling of some kind—FOXNews was the first LameStream media source after the wire services in the US to run the story, and it appears they waited for photographic evidence

How much extensive the shelling is is another story. Like, it wasn’t an on-slaught or anything. But enough to cause damage and sow chaos. And it appears they managed to mostly resurround Ras al-Ain again

Personal theory: Turkey wants to use this time to exacerbate the humanitarian/refugee crisis to create a new more favorable starting point for any negotiations.

All this comes with the caveat that it’s hard to confirm anything on the ground, obviously. Lots of unsourced pics and videos going around and some are bs. But also, in many cases, there is nobody to do any verification even if it is true.

Like, what should we make of this guy?

On its own, hard to know what to think. But the differing accounts generally shake out after a few hours; like, at the end of the day, it’s hard to lie about, say, who’s occupying a city without people finding out. Or smoke plumes and stuff.

Marciano490

What were the borders of the ancient Kingdom of Israel? Did they incorporate this corridor in Syria?

I’m trying to figure out if the Evangelicals were right after all.

dhappy42

It it’s height, the Kingdom of Israel was roughly what is now Israel, the West Bank, western Jordan and bits of Lebanon and southwest Syria. Kurdish Syria is in the northeast corner of the country about 500 miles away.

Too soon to tell.

Reverend

That’s a very contentious and delicate question, according to contemporary archeologists. I think the most ambitious accounts have it, in the north, as including all of Lebanon to the northern border and outward east into parts of southern Syria.

As I mentioned to teddywingman pointed out earlier in the thread that Dabiq is in northwest Syrian territory held by the SNA. ISIS captures it in 2014, and the. Turkish backed SNA took it in 2016. It’s one of the few areas in the west flanked by SDF in multiple sides, possibly due to its “strategic” value…

Dabiq is one of two possible locations (the other being, aptly named, Amuk, in Turkey.) that, in Muslim eschatology, will be the location of the final battle between Islam and Rome that leads to the return of Jesus. The then called FSA forces that took the city in 2016 at the time openly mocked ISIS for the fact that Jesus was a no-show.

I haven’t seen any contemporary chatter about this angle, but I also don’t really know where to look. But it’s not an accident that ISIS’s newsletter or whatever was named, “Dabiq.”

But yeah, if you’re into the whole millennialist thing, then yeah, there is a lot to work with here.

What were you thinking of within the Christian last days possibilities? I mean, Dabiq is less than 250 km from the northern border of Lebanon. But I’m not fully up on what the American Christian end-of-times types currently believe will be the signs.

Something to chew on, though:

Christian and Islamic eschatology have a TON of overlap. So if Christians see signs of the end of times, it may often be because elements of ISIS are actively trying to enact the end of times prophesies, and a Christian millennialist may recognize the events as resonating with their own vision of the world. So either it’s true, or it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy (which might still be true if you’re into the whole fate thing.), but it’s no surprise it looks like that.

tl;dr There are elements on the ground in Syria who are engaging in activity that will be identifiable to a millennialist believer as signs of the end of times.

Whether or not Christians in America are talking about this, I don’t know. But Christian and Islamic millennialists are looking out for a lot of the same things to happen. So I guess what happens if someone starts doing them on purpose?

Too soon to tell? Mostly, yeah. With some refinement though.

Most of the Kurdish held land in the east of Syria, but their presence extends out west on the northern border. Notably, they are active to the west of Manbij and around Dubiq—they are the orange and yellow in this map of northwest Syria; Assad’s forces are red and SNA is green. I indicated Dabiq with an “X”.

This is all subject to a reorganization of the SAA and SDF units under whatever their new alliance shakes out to be. But for the moment, and for some time now, both SAA and SDF have been fighting sorta together in the west.

Assad also has his own front in the west against SNA but that’s been going on for awhile independent of the stuff going on further east, though that will probably all get rolled together now.

And yeah, too soon to tell. But I’m sure people are trying to read the signs, eh?

Pat Robertson’s admonition about losing the “Mandate of Heaven” may be on point here.

YTF

Just spoke to President @RTErdogan of Turkey. He told me there was minor sniper and mortar fire that was quickly eliminated. He very much wants the ceasefire, or pause, to work.

He’s already walking back the ceasefire. It’s wall vs fence all over again. A fence isn’t a wall and a pause isn’t a ceasefire, but he’ll intermingle the two terms as if they are.

Reverend

Update: Today in Biblical prophecy. Here are your big players:

• Isaiah 17: the destruction of Damascus; people start wondering if there might be something to this God of Israel after all.
• Ezekiel 38-39: After reuniting the factions of Israel in their ancestral lands (Ezekiel 37), Israel fights everyone, after which the Temple is restored.

Damascus and Dabiq are like a 5 or 6 hour drive from one another, to give a sense of locality.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Multiple reports that not only are there still air strikes around Ras al-Ain, but they are targeting ambulances.

There’s also down chatter about knocking down a couple of drones, though they look like toys compared to American versions, so I dunno how significant that is.

Edit: And here are the rest of the ambulances. Very useful.

Marciano490

Well, now we know that bombing ambulances is the difference between a ceasefire and a pause.

I hope I remember that distinction when I’m helping my grandkids with their history homework by campfire light in the outskirts of whatever leveled city we settle in after the apocalypse.

Reverend

There’s a special corner of hell for people who shoot medics.

teddywingman

There is nothing good about any of this, but perhaps a book by Rev.

This has WWIII written all over it, except this time we hold no ethical high ground.

Reverend

Ask those posters from earlier about Dabiq.

Gdiguy

The only reason I think the WWIII comps are silly is that it’s not remotely clear what the ‘sides’ are – Russia is basically backing both sides here, Europe couldn’t possibly be less interested in backing Turkey, and let’s be honest Trump isn’t about to jump whole-hog into a fight against Syria/Russia.

Re the above, the one thing that would make this at least somewhat enjoyable would be if Turkey gets its ass handed to it

8slim

I mean, he’s lying. Through his teeth. All he does is lie. We all know this.

[REDACTED COMMENTS: PLACEHOLDER]

VOX: 9 questions about Turkey, Syria, and the Kurds you were too embarrassed to ask

8slim

Thanks for sharing this. Very helpful.

 

Apparently there wasn’t really a cease fire.

TFSA/SNA* forces continued to fight with SDF,  just Turkey stopped shelling and air strikes. For awhile. Like, after a few hours.

But now there are reports that TSK (Turkey army) recommenced shelling/ rocket attacks (People on the ground can always tell the difference.) Ras al-Ain and Ain Issa (about 35-40 km south of the border at Tel Abiad) in support of the SNA. I guess they got fed up or something.

On the other hand, they haven’t leveled the cities or anything, so that’s something. Time also gives SAA (Assad’s) forces more time to support SDF positions, about which Turkey was probably not thrilled.

The Kurds are giving them a hell of a fight, though, and there are reports they’ve stalled them on the way to Ayn Issa and they may have broken the siege of Ras al-Ayn in its eastern side. The SDF resistance in Ras al-Ayn is bordering on the stuff of legend at this point, and there is reason to believe Turkey is pissed.**

Russian SU-35s have largely deterred Turkish aircraft. It is unclear if they gave any of the F-16s they encountered “the bird”. Either way, probably also pisses Turkey off.

*FSA (Free Syrian Army) has largely rebranded to SNA (Syrian National Army). The changing names offer a lens into the gradual transition from the punk rock/ethical-anarchist rebellion to Islamic ethno-nationalist jihadists. Not all FSA/SNA are Turkish backed, for the record.

**After TFSA took the city a few days ago under Turkish support, the SDF, in what will forever be remembered as an example of the difficulties of fighting a force on their home turf, fucking entered a system of tunnels under the city and ambushed them from inside the city. Since then, they’ve resisted the TFSA/SNA despite being surrounded and may have busted through the cordon on the east flank. This may in part explain the renewed shelling and at least one alleged air strike on or near Ayn Issa.

Edit: I found another useful map that does a better job of indicating SAA reinforcement of key SDF positions.

Gunfighter 09 said:

I am trying very very hard to view this through any lens that makes sense and the only one I can see is that if Trump was determined to be out of the Syria business regardless of any and all costs this is only about the 4th or 5th worst way to do it. I guess?

Reverend

Are there still nukes in Turkey? Give it some time, maybe?

Looking through Twitter, it looks like Turkey was very not into shooting at any of the Russians patrolling the border to the west. So they fucked up a city to the east, Ras al-Ain/Sari Kani (a lot of these cities go by Arabic and Kurdish names, depending), to create calls for international help with tens of thousands of new refugees. So that’s the pressure Turkey applied literally in the last day or two, and that’s what they negotiated away: five days to get the civilians out of the way.

So all they lost was the chance to kill a bunch of civilians and they only get to displace them now.

Beomoose

Trump says the Kurds have to be “cleaned out” of the 20-mile border zone Turkey has created.

Meanwhile, SDF say the deal can get stuffed

<DELETED TWEET>

[Edit: I will be including references to deleted Tweets because, as will discovered, there appears to be patterns of Twitter moderation that emerge over time.]

Well, that’s about the least unlikely thing ever.

They could have accepted those terms at any time. That is literally what they are fighting about.

So: What’s Russia’s next move?

Do they continue just cruising the western border and wait or do they have something else planned?

Couperin47

See my post #330, unless things have changed in the last few weeks, and it’s technically ‘secret’, it’s generally known we have 250 tactical devices [nukes] stored at Incirlik.

barbed wire Bob

This article is from 2017.

Arms Control Association: U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Turkey Raise Alarm

According to open-source estimates, the United States may store as many as 50 B61 gravity bombs at Incirlik. Those make up one-third of the approximately 150 nuclear weapons thought to be housed in five nations in Europe as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements.
The original rationale for deploying U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe was to deter and, if necessary, defeat a large-scale attack by the Soviet Union. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has drastically reduced the number of weapons on the continent, but still deploys a smaller number to extend deterrence to NATO allies and as a political signal of the U.S. commitment to the security of alliance members.
The Defense and Energy departments are in the process of an extensive rebuilding of the B61, at a cost that may exceed $10 billion. (See ACT, November 2016.)

Unlike the other bases in Europe that host U.S. B61s, Incirlik does not have dedicated nuclear-capable fighter aircraft that can deliver the weapons. Moreover, Turkey does not train its pilots to fly nuclear missions. In the event NATO were to make a decision to use the weapons now stored in Turkey, the United States or another NATO member would fly its own aircraft to pick them up.

As a matter of policy, the Defense Department does not comment on the presence of nuclear weapons in Turkey or anywhere else in Europe. The Air Force, in its fiscal year 2015 budget request, noted the presence of “special weapons” at “storage sites in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey.” Since 2000, NATO has invested $80 million in “infrastructure improvements” and as of 2014 planned to invest an additional $154 million “for security improvements.”

The B61’s bomb (actually it’s a weapons family) is the oldest nuke in the US Arsenal but it’s also extremely versatile which is why it is still in service. That’s the bad news. The good news is that it requires a specially fitted airplane to carry the bomb and currently none of the aircraft based at Incirlik are capable of carrying the thing. Also, security around the bombs is pretty tight and, more importantly the Permissive Action Links (PAL) and other safety features make extremely difficult to arm the bombs without the proper codes. Lastly, there’s no guarantee the bombs based at Incirlik would actually work. Nukes deteriorate with age and the B61s were scheduled for modernization but there’s no evidence that the ones in Turkey were ever modernize They were scheduled to be rebuilt but ho knows if the upgrade program ever got to Incirlik. Regardless, keeping any. U.S. weapon in Turkey is unwise and nukes should be transferred stateside ASAP.

More information on the B61’s can be found at the links below.
The B61 Bomb

The Drive: U.S. Reviewing Options For Pulling Nuclear Bombs Out Of Turkey, Here’s How They Might Do It
The rapidly evolving crisis in Syria may prompt the U.S. to finally remove its nuclear stockpile from Turkey, a move that some say is long overdue.

CousinTonyFromPadua

Just a couple days ago, some asshole confirmed there are still nukes in Turkey.

 

 

 

 

 

Reverend

Erdogan is meeting with Putin in Sochi on Tuesday.

So, if you’re scoring at home, the day before Pompeo and Pence visited with Erdogan, Turkey began bombarding two Kurdish cities, and then got to magnanimously restrain themselves for five days as a some kind of favor to the US… at the end of which he’s meeting with Putin, ostensibly to decide what happens next.

America has officially achieved Pawn Status.

Marciano490

Pawns can’t move backwards.

Reverend

Also, Beirut is apparently in flames over taxes and corruption, or general habit and feeling left out.

Darnell’s Son

They can move diagonally though, when they want to getcha, they’re sneaky fellers.

Reverend

Speaking of sideways, some fun facts about Turkey’s “proposed” “safe zone” extending 30 km south of the Turkey-Syrian border that they want to clear of the people there and repopulate it with Syrian refugees currently in Turkey.

• For much of western Syria, this would put the edge of the safezone just a few km from the M4, the only major E-W highway of northern Syria.
• In the eastern region of the country, the M4 would be within the proposed safe zone.
• Also in the east, the capital of the Kurdish autonomous area/Rojava, Qamishli, would be in the safe zone.
• Qamishli has a population of over 200,000.
• Qamishli is a long time center for the Assyrians and for the Kurds.*
• Assyrians are Christians. Qamishli is famous for their Christmas celebrations.

That’s right: Trump is trying to kill Christmas in the Middle East.**

*The Assyrians fled there from Turkey and Iran years ago (and whom the Syrian government was trying to get rid of) and also of the Kurds, who fled there from Turkey and Iraq (and whom the Syrian government also wanted to get rid of. The place is sorta a pain in the ass to get to between mountains and desert, so refugees end up there, I guess.

**I’m joking of course. But one of the most significant Christian populations in the Middle East under threatened siege and violent displacement is obviously politically interesting from the POV of the United States.

 

geoduck no quahog

“Mr. Trump, why couldn’t you have made this unbelievably great deal a couple of weeks ago, before Kurds were killed, ISIS strengthened, Russian intervention and the American military embarrassed? Or are you just playing 12 dimensional chess with us and this was your plan all along. You are a genius, sir.”

Reverend

He made the deal about a week ago with that fucking “C’mon, be a good kid,” letter.

Reports of acceptance of a modified version of the agreement by the leader of the SDF (“the Kurds”):

Basically, saying they agree to the cease fire but not Turkey’s territorial demands, but will negotiate an outcome.

Sounds like a complicated long-term “No.” But with a few days off to… ?

It sounds like that means no cease fire outside a couple specific cities/regions in the northeast, so there could still be changes on the ground in other areas during the limited cease fire.

Putin is probably eating popcorn; there are reports of Russian troops all but gloating that the fighting stops when they roll through.

8slim

This “cease fire” is 5 days, right? So is it fair to assume that all hell will break loose again, soon enough?

norm from cheers

What a difference a year makes in Trump’s public opinion of the Kurds.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[REDACTED COMMENTS: PLACEHOLDER]

Gaetano Incognito

We? Mitt, wtf. It’s Trump. Just say it already you coward.