As part of the “ceasefire deal,” Pence says all sanctions on Turkey are coming off:

We take you live now to Senator Graham…

TallerThanPedroia

Trump has what his diseased mind thinks is his Nobel Peace Prize accomplishment.

“This is a great day for civilization. I am proud of the United States for sticking by me in following a necessary, but somewhat unconventional, path. People have been trying to make this “Deal” for many years. Millions of lives will be saved. Congratulations to ALL!”

8slim

Trump and his administration might be the worst negotiators of all time. I’ve seen 8 years olds negotiate better fantasy football trades.

Reverend

Can you imagine being in the room with Erdogan and his advisors as he read that letter? Quiet all around, and then a slowly dawning awareness: “These are not serious people…”

“We can do whatever we want.”

And then, apparently, have what they want presented as a negotiated settlement so that Trump could say he made a deal. I wonder what the kabuki theater of pretending to be negotiating looked like.

Also, I need to read more, but I’m a little intrigued by Pence and Pompeo being devout evangelical Christians; there’s been some buzz about the evangelicals in America being supportive of the only people in the region actually committed to religious freedom and thought it was cool that the US was supporting them. I mean, it’s likely that Syrian Christians are going to get fucked here.

TheStoryofYourRedRightAnkle

So, we negotiated to ethnically cleanse part of Syria for Turkey and reward them for letting us do it?

glennhoffmania

The Turkish foreign minister explicitly said this is not a ceasefire.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the reached agreement between the US and Turkey to suspend military operations in Syria is not a ceasefire.

“This is not a ceasefire,” Cavusoglu said during a televised news conference today.

So Trump is strutting around on Twitter claiming victory and immediately afterwards Turkey disputes his account

CNN: US says Turkey agrees to a ceasefire in Syria

Marciano490

Isn’t this all bad for Israel?

Beomoose

Very, but Bibi’s in waaaay too deep to do anything more than grumble at this point.

Reverend

Iran’s goal in this is to extend a corridor of influence across northern Iraq and southern Syria to extend to Lebanon.

Yes.

It’s also bad for Christians and other religious minorities in the region, if we’re keeping score.

Plus Turkey plans to repopulate the area with Syrian refugees.

So we’re not just giving land to ISIS, they’re going to get a complete population and economy to go along with it.

This is fucking insane even if there were no Kurds involved.

 

 

norm from cheers

Pence and Pompeo announce they have brokered a ceasefire in Syria for 120 hours to allow for the US to get YPG forces out of the “safe zone.” No mention of talks with Syrian or Russian leadership or where the YPG forces will go. If all goes well a permanent ceasefire will be in place and the US will drop sanctions on Turkey.

geoduck no quahog

Is this a “voluntary” surrender by the Kurds?

Beomoose

It’s made at the barrel of a gun, for sure.

geoduck no quahog

So, the setup is that after the Kurds refuse to be surrendered, Turkey will restart operations based on it being the nasty Kurd’s fault.

21st Century Sox

Huh. So we take over running the Kurds off while Turkey takes a rest? Then hand the land to Turkey. Then drop sanctions on Turkey. Correct? Good Lord….

[REDACTED COMMENTS: PLACEHOLDER]

Reverend

As bad as all this is, you guys left out Iran.

And, What the hell?

What? Pompeo and Pence “negotiated” for Turkey to get exactly what they wanted out of this situation? I mean, that is literally their objective.

Turkey says it wants a buffer zone, which is true as far as that goes. But part of the idea is that the 30 mile zone at the border would involve seizing all the homes of people who have fled and then repopulating the area with Syrian refugees (largely believed to be Sunni, fwiw). The Kurds they have been fighting would then become homeless. This is part of their intended process of ethnic cleansing of the Kurds. This has been known for some time.

We need to hear more, obviously, but it sounds like Pence and Pompeo “negotiated” an acceptance of the Turkish terms.

 

Gunfighter 09

I really feel for the planners at CENTCOM and all of the other forces in the region right now. The amazing variety of threats, possible adversaries and potential missions that are in the realm of the possible right now is incredible. This is the worst Presidential level leadership of troops in combat since…..

kneemoe

No link (edit – added, below) but a spokesperson for Erdogan was on NPR’s morning edition this morning, was asked about the letter and essentially scoffed at it and claimed that they placed no value on it whatsoever due to the wording and content.

Trump’s on tilt, and everyone knows it.

https://www.npr.org/player/embed/770848622/770848623

about 4 minutes in

and holy crap – listening to it again she actually says their push into syria was their response to the letter. Clearly, that’s not true, this was all orchestrated before that letter in my mind, but that’s a curb stomp of the current administration, no respect for you.

Devizier

Trump really gave us our “Napoleon in Egypt” moment, didn’t he.

ZMart100

Bay of Pigs? That was probably a worse military disaster, but the scale was much, much smaller.

OilCanShotTupac

Well, part of his meltdown was to destabilize the most volatile region in the world and betray a staunch ally, so there’s a downside

[REDACTED COMMENTS: PLACEHOLDER]

BroodsSexton

This kind of response will drive Trump insane.

dhappy42

This is waaay more embarrassing than the failure of Desert One. Desert One was a rescue mission that ran into bad weather and went awry. Trump’s betrayal of the Kurds and hasty, unplanned retreat was on purpose.

However, Murphy is wrong about this being “maybe the worst” thing. The embarrassment of the U.S. military, the U.S. in general and damage to U.S. reputation is small compared to the long-term damage Trump has done to U.S. national security by revitalizing ISIS, not to mention the untold number of Kurdish dead.

Average Reds

If the objective is to prove that Trump is unfit, that’s what you do. And the responsibility for the consequences lies with those who supported and enabled him.

Beomoose

Bay of Pigs was a costly mess, but between the loss of the Kurdish alliance, the dire state of our Turkish relations, all the hay the Assad support network is making, Russia getting free Syrian bases built and furnished by the United States, the opportunity for ISIS to rebound, the harm this does to future Administrations when they attempt to form alliances/partnerships, etc etc…..this is worse. BoP with the Missile Crisis added on is more scary, but we don’t know yet what crisis the Syrian Tweets will lead to in the years to come.

dhappy42

If we could only get Russia to pick up the tab for Israel’s defense and wash our hands of the never-ending Palestinian-Israeli conflict mess. About 20% of Israelis are Russian, anyway, and Russian-born Avigdor Lieberman and his “Israel is Our Home Party” is the likely kingmaker in Israeli elections for the foreseeable future. Israel is 7,000 miles away too, after all.

BrazilianSoxFan

“I believe it’s important that we make a strong forward-looking strategic statement. For that reason my preference would be for something even stronger than the resolution that the House passed yesterday, which has some serious weaknesses,” McConnell said from the Senate floor.

The House passed its resolution formally opposing Trump’s troop drawback in northern Syria and urging Turkey to end its military incursion in a 354-60 vote.

But McConnell argued that the House resolution was too “narrowly drafted,” didn’t address Sunni Arab or Christian communities in Syria and was too “backward-looking.”

“It is curiously silent on the issue of whether to actually sustain a U.S. military presence in Syria, perhaps to spare Democrats from having to go on record on this question. So my first preference is for something stronger than the House resolution,” he added.

The Hill: McConnell says he wants ‘something stronger’ than House Syria resolution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[REDACTED COMMENTS: PLACEHOLDER]

Reverend

For anyone still wondering if we live in a simulation:

Smoke plumes of tire fires billow in the background to decrease visibility for Turkish warplanes on the outskirts of the Syrian town of Tal Tamr near the border with Turkey. PHOTO: DELIL SOULEIMAN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

That’s right: It’s an actual tire fire.

dhappy42

Yes, nothing says “winning” like having to call in an airstrikes to destroy a military base to prevent it from falling into the hands of… a NATO ally.

Reverend

Minor correction: The article says Turkish backed forces, not Turkish forces. It’s a subtle but important distinction.

But one of the distinctions is that the units might basically be ISIS. Which is pretty fucked.

But yeah, the broader picture you paint is painfully on point.

Reverend

Also, for an indication of the current state of American influence, it’s worth noting that the reason that our forces were in Kobani was because that was the city Erdogan had promised Trump not to attack.

And then we promptly had to withdraw under cover of air power and then nuke it from orbit blow up the base.

Foreign Policy: Turkey Advances on Kobani in Latest Broken Promise
Erdogan told Trump he would not attack the symbolically important Kurdish-held town in northern Syria.

Turkish-backed forces advanced on the Kurdish-held border town of Kobani on Wednesday, despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s commitment to U.S. President Donald Trump that he would not attack the location.

As the situation in northern Syria dissolves into chaos, Turkey’s move into Kobani reflects just the latest broken promise Turkish officials have made to their U.S. counterparts in recent weeks. Kobani is a symbolically significant city that the Kurdish-led fighters recaptured from the Islamic State in 2015, in one of the longest and bloodiest battles of the campaign against the militant group.

“Erdogan told Trump he would not go to Kobani. He immediately broke all his promises on the size and scope of the operation,” a senior U.S. administration official told Foreign Policy. “I think they played us the whole time.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said late Tuesday on Twitter that any Turkish attack on Kobani would be a major escalation. “I am certain Congress and the Administration will hold Erdogan personally responsible for any atrocities committed in and around Kobani,” he added.

Just one week after Ankara began its bloody campaign into Kurdish-held territory in northern Syria, Turkish-backed forces have advanced far past the established boundaries of the so-called safe zone Erdogan proposed months ago, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters.

dhappy42

Simulation or not, that is an awesome photograph.

Gunfighter 09

from WaPo:

NEW DETAIL per three sources: Trump said several times in mtg he wasn’t concerned about terrorists 7,000 miles away. After Pelosi & Hoyer left, @RepLizCheney spoke up to remind Trump that the terrorists responsible for 9/11 “came from 7,000 miles away” themselves.

Reverend

That’s amazing. If we weren’t in a simulation, I mean.

Hey, you wouldn’t happen to know where the Appaches that reportedly participated in the show of force at Kobani came from, do you? I can’t find anything about it and I can’t figure out where they would have been based.

[REDACTED COMMENTS: PLACEHOLDER]

DIGRESSION ON ACCIDENTALLY SEEING VIDEOS OF THE CONFLICT WITH DECAPITATED HEADS

Reverend

Twitter really needs to rethink its autoplay feature.

Gunfighter 09

I was under the impression there were no conventional rotary wing attack assets in Syria. I am also out of the loop, so who knows.

If my going in position was correct it is possible that SOF attack aircraft (DAP configured H-60s) were mistaken for Apaches or that Apaches were moved up from Al Assad in western Iraq or even from Kuwait to cover the withdrawal. Either one could be true. It’s sounds like a giant uncertain mess where rotary wing Close Air Support would be something the ground commanders would really want, so I’m not shocked.

Reverend

Interesting. Thank you.

I wonder when the call for air support, whatever showed up, went out.

Marciano490

Why weren’t the ISIS prisoners transferred to Gitmo or military prisons in Israel or Europe?

Reverend

There’s a fuckton of them. Like, they had ISIS supporting families and shit. Tens of thousands of people.

Even if there were not said fuckton, nobody fucking wants them.

Average Reds

We’ve been unable to close Gitmo (because no one will take the prisoners) despite that being a primary objective since Obama’s inauguration. Given that experience, the obvious answer to your question is we didn’t want to be responsible for them.

Marciano490

If Trump were really smart, he’d have stowed them all in one of his hotels and had the government pay lodgings.

dhappy42

It was a snap decision. Trump didn’t even have a plan in place to get our soldiers out.

Reverend

The location of some of the fiercest fighting going on right now is a place called Ras al-Ayd. It’s currently held by Kurds, though Turkish and Turkish backed forces are taking villages around it.

As it happens, that was the location of one of the main extermination camps or whatever we call them from the Armenian genocide.

So there’s got to be some kind of business synergy here to be had.

[REDACTED COMMENTS: PLACEHOLDER]

DIGRESSION: DABIQ

Couperin47

What we really intend in regards to Turkey, assuming anyone with intelligence and ability to influence Trump’s whims still has any influence, will be clarified by what we do regarding the 250 devices still stored at Incirlik.

InstantKarmma

And now Russia has moved in.

Russia announced on Tuesday that its units were patrolling between the Turkish and Syrian militaries near the northern Syrian town of Manbij, in a sign that Moscow, a key ally of the Syrian government, was moving to fill a security vacuum after U.S. troops were withdrawn from the area.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syria-says-government-soldiers-enter-manbij-after-us-troops-withdraw/2019/10/15/d494405a-eeb8-11e9-bb7e-d2026ee0c199_story.html

Reverend

In a fit of complete craziness, the US military facilitated the transfer of the battlefield to the Russians.

They guided the Russians through a treacherous zone to get to the positions in Manbij which the US was evacuating and set them up to expedite the whole process.

There’s video going around of a Russian journalist poking around the former US base. Pretty much everyone thought it was completely surreal.

There’s also video of a US convoy and a Syrian Arab Army (Assad’s forces) passing each other going different directions on the road between Manbij and Kobane (where the US are because that was the city Turkey agreed not to attack). It’s all weird.

Reverend

So, the propaganda aimed at the situation makes ours look like a bunch of pikers.

Here’s a pro-Turkey video I found being passed around on many accounts, in this case from a Twitter account with no followers and following nobody that was established in August. I’ve found the same video on other accounts of similar disposition.

This shit is wild.

<OK IT’S UNAVAILABLE NOW>

Edit: Given the bot distribution, I have no idea who actually is putting that video out. It could easily be Russian bots putting out a video only alleging to be pro-Turkish when it’s actually intended to inflame Turkish opposition by its over the top nature. Or it is to be what it claims to be and is just over the top. There’s no good way to tell, which is sorta nuts.

It’s a fascinating watch though.

Edit 2: Here’s the wiki for the TV station emblem in the video.

A9 TV

Reverend

US forces in the northeast apparently called in a flyby* on some Turkish backed militia (TFSA) who were getting kinda close.

In other news, SDF/Kurdish forced apparently took back one of the cities in the northeast that they had lost to the Turks in this offensive all by themselves.

The people we abandoned may actually literally be the toughest sumbitches on the planet.
*Is is unclear if this was a Maverick style circus stunt flyby.

Reverend

US Attorney’s Office SDNY (These guys again…) charge a Turkish bank with laundering money toner around sanctions on Iran.

Keep in mind that Iran is supporting Assad against Turkey, but only because they want a “northern corridor” of influence across southern Syria to Lebanon and the sea, which makes them opposed to the rise of ISIS/al-queda in the region.

This place is a fucking mess.

norm from cheers

Trump having Senate and Congressional leaders over to Whitehouse tomorrow to discuss Syria. The gang of 8 are invited, with the exception of Schiff..Sen Reed is going so it must be more then just the 8.

glennhoffmania

What’s a money toner?

Reverend

“to get”

Apologies.

norm from cheers

Its quite a political hole Trump dug us into. Here is Eurdogan today:

“Erdogan said Turkey’s operation will end when Ankara completes its goal to form a “safe zone” from Syria’s Manbij to the border with Iraq.

“We informed the US, EU and Russia before the operation began that … we want this terrorist organisation to be removed from our borders,” he said at a weekly meeting of his ruling AK Party, referring to the YPG.

“When the zone from Manbij to Iraq [is cleared] when we could establish a safe zone, this operation will be over. But until that point, no power can stop us.”

He also said he will not meet Pompeo or Pence when they visit. He will only meet Trump
link

Average Reds

Trump is the easiest mark in the history of the United States. Why would any foreign leader ever meet with anyone other than Trump?

BroodsSexton

As I posted in the other thread, this looks like a setup for WWIII, with Turkey trying to take over Syria, though I guess the question is where the alliances are and who comes to the defense of Syria (!). I have a hard time believing that NATO is going to support Turkey, but it also seems unlikely they’ll jump in for Assad. Trump has also said he doesn’t support this offensive, but he’s a fool, and could well get dragged back in with promises by Erdogan that he will eradicate ISIS and solve the Syrian problem once and for all.

Does Russia jump in for Assad, giving Trump and Putin the opportunity to wreak maximum chaos on the world?

One of the more provocative questions at the debate last night is whether Turkey should remain in NATO. How does NATO handle this?

glennhoffmania

I just saw a blurb on one of those elevator screen things saying that Erdogan will now agree with meet with Pence and Pompeo today.

SirPsychoSquints

NBC News: Erdogan rejects Syria cease-fire call ahead of Pence meeting

this says he’ll meet them tomorrow/Thursday

TallerThanPedroia

I don’t think Turkey wants to take over Syria. They just want to drive out the Kurds from that “safe zone” and then fill it with hardline Sunni Arabs from the current Syrian refugee population in Turkey, who can keep the Kurds in check.

OilCanShotTupac

It really is like some bad sci-fi novel or D&D module with a plot of a five-sided war, that would be ordinarily be dismissed as improbable.

OilCanShotTupac

you’d figure in this day and age Trump would waive the in-hand delivery requirement and let Erdogan wire the Trump Tower Istanbul monthly take, but I guess the personal touch matters in business.

It is mind blowing that Pence and Pompeo purport to be a diplomatic mission to exert pressure on Erdogan.

Reverend

t’s notable that there is nobody for NATO to support anymore. Nor is there anyone for the US to support anymore even if we wanted to go back in.

Check it: The US had originally been supporting many of the factions fighting Assad. However, over time, many of the militias became compromised and dominated by radicals TallerThanPedroia mentioned, and ISIS/al-queda spread within the ranks.

The notable exception was the SDF/Kurds, who set up their own autonomous prototype-state called Rojava (recognized by no one despite being supported militarily by the US). The US supported them because they were actually fighting ISIS. The support was complicated by the idea that the US would support the Kurds in fighting ISIS, but not Turkey-though the Turkish backed Syrian militias were pretty much fair game for the Kurds as they have increasingly been infiltrated by ISIS.

So here’s the thing: Rojava doesn’t exist anymore.

When the US pulled out, the SDF had to cut a deal with Assad and Russia, so know the SDF/Kurdish units are reorganized under the control of Syria’s army, the SAA. The Syrian army has, for the first time in years, taken up positions on the border that the Kurds have been holding. And Russian units are patrolling between the Turkish forces and the Syrian forces to prevent conflict. The Rojava project is over.

So there is no longer an independent group espousing Western values in there to support that shares our goals, which means doesn’t also involve also supporting Assad, like there used to be.

People have talked about bluff calling… Trump didn’t just call or fold; he threw our chips away.

Reverend

OilCanShotTupac

President Trump said Wednesday that Turkey’s offensive against U.S.-allied Kurdish forces in northern Syria is “not our problem,” defending his decision to withdraw U.S. troops from the region amid criticism.

“If Turkey goes into Syria, it is between Turkey and Syria. It’s not our problem,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office during a meeting with Italian President Sergio Mattarella.

The Hill: Trump says Turkish offensive has ‘nothing to do with us’

Why, then, are Pompeo and Pence going there? A day after tweeting that “BIG SANCTIONS” are coming against Turkey?

The incoherence is nothing new. What’s really disturbing is – how the hell does the US engage any allies at all to help with (whatever it is we’re doing) if the policy (such as it is) does a 180 every day?

YTF

Questions such as yours are the chief reason there is no longer a daily press briefing at the White House.

MiracleOfO2704

From WaPo WH reporter Josh Dawsey:

“It’s not our problem,” Trump says in Oval Office of Turkey’s invasion into Syria. He adds that the Kurds are “not angels.” Also, he says this: “They’ve got a lot of sand over there…. There’s a lot of sand they can play with.”

Reverend

Dragging the Kurds like that is particularly significant given Turkey’s bid in the international arena to have them considered a terrorist organization.

Hoya81

dhappy42

he Onion? Or The Orange?

This joke isn’t funny anymore.

Trump just told the Italian PM that the US and Italy have been friends for thousands of years.

Reverend

Pastor Bronson, named in the letter, gave the opening prayer to the Senate yesterday. And he prayed over Trump this last weekend.

That’ll show’em.

norm from cheers

During his melt down in the meeting Pelosi and other Dems left, Trump was on a roll:
carl hulse@hillhulse

Dems say that in angry meeting, Pres Trump called former DefSec Mattis : “the world’s most overrated general. You know why? He wasn’t tough enough. I captured ISIS. Mattis said it would take 2 yrs. I captured them in 1 month”

dhappy42

“I captured them in one month!” ???

This is worrisome. The man is not well.

Reverend

Has our policy and approach even changed since Mattis left until about a week ago?

Surely the years of warfare contributed something to the outcome

Average Reds

I’m currently watching Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) as he describes the meeting, and it sounds like it was absolutely nuts.

Trump truly is melting down under the pressure. They need to keep it up.

norm from cheers

I don’t think there would be one member of the military who would have a problem with Ret USMC General Mad Dog Mattis breaking code and spilling the beans about his time as Trump’s Sec Def. He could get his street cred back and I would love to see any of the Rep Senator’s attempt to discredit him during the impeachment trial. That’s some hooah stuff right there.

ZMart100

There’s video going around of a Russian journalist poking around the former US base. Pretty much everyone thought it was completely surreal.

I’ve seen several. Some Russians have apparently decided to troll by advertising “bad guys” right on their foreheads.

Reverend

Anyone here read Russian?

Marciano490

It’s – uh – a homophobic slur. Think the “f” word.

Reverend

That was the joke. It may have been a bit opaque.

I mean, there’s a homophobic slur in English too. 🙂

Marciano490

Ah, I couldn’t zoom in enough on some of the English to make it out.

Also, I love Trump’s letter telling Erdogan he doesn’t want to kill thousands of people. It’s always important to know what the party across the table wants.

I’m surprised nobody here laid the text over Ralph giving Lisa a Valentine’s Day card.

Reverend

“comrades like dudes” with an arrow pointing to the Russian flag.

There’s also something about their moms. Great moments in international diplomacy.

norm from cheers

It turns out the letter Trump wrote to Eurdogan was not leaked.. Trump passed them out at the infamous meeting today lol:

Jill Colvin@colvinj
Per the same source, Trump handed out copies of the letter he’d sent to Erdogan at today’s meeting in what was interpreted as an attempt to show everyone how tough he’d been.

dhappy42

Wait… our soldiers wrote that stuff?

Marciano490

Your Russian is better than mine, can you make out the word after favorite? I can’t even see if it’s Cyrillic or also in English.

Also, is that a bear on the right and a Russian flag gun or dick?

dhappy42

Looks like English, but I can’t make it out. Flag dick.

Kremlin Watcher

Yes pretty much this. “Pedik” is kind of a combination of the “f” word and pedophile.

Russian has an extraordinary obscene vocabulary.

Marciano490

Отоз or отоx seems to be the last word. I don’t know if those mean anything. The former might have some pulling out joke connotation.

CousinTonyFromPadua

Also, is that a bear on the right and a Russian flag gun or dick?

On the right is a penis cat. Above the Russian flag is another penis (colored like the Russian flag).

Marciano490

It’s a pity blue isn’t the bottom color in the Russian flag. Would’ve suited the balls better – though I’m not sure whether that expression translates directly.

CousinTonyFromPadua

голубой is another gay reference, so those airmen would’ve gone with it (if they’d thought of it).

Reverend

Maybe that’s why the arrow is pointing there?

CousinTonyFromPadua

Nah, that one’s a totally different shade of blue (синий), and if there’s one thing you can count on, it’s homophobes’ scrupulous attention to chromatic nomenclature.

Marciano490

голубой is the “normal” way to say gay in Russian, as I understand it. But, my Russian friend’s aren’t particularly enlightened on the subject, so maybe that’s not correct.

dhappy42

Someone on Twitter (it’s not important who) claims U.S. soldiers leave behind penis drawings wherever they go. Is that true? What an unusual “tradition.”

TheShynessClinic

I mean, it’s not like it’s codified or anything.

But generally speaking penis art is accepted and encouraged in the military, yes.

Gunfighter 09

We really need to ensure that we are using the best possible references to discuss important topics, Devil.

Terminal Lance

 

 

MiracleOfO2704

As predicted, the Kurds went to Assad, hat in hand.

YTF said:
From the earliest days of this administration when it appeared that Trump was more than willing to test long time allies while embracing traditional threats to our country I have expressed concern over how he, and more important how our country, would be viewed on the world stage. I think our reputation is repairable for sure, but not until Trump is out of office and his successor has earned the trust that we once held in the world community. Other countries still depend on our relationship for shared military intel and economic concerns, but the level of trust has no doubt been badly damaged. Trump has no issue tweeting sensitive information that can compromise the personnel of our military as well as that of our allies and their sources. He’s also constantly threatening the economies of other countries. Just as we have allowed other countries to reestablish and rebuild their relationship with us, we will be allowed to reestablish and rebuild our relationship with them, but it is going to take time and will happen at their pace and discretion. Their trust will need to be earned.

That may be, but we’ve had a thread here in the past pointing out that staunch US allies, like Germany, are now exploring ways to be as independent of the US as possible. One of the big takeaways is that our allies now must wrestle with a thought they shouldn’t have to: “Fine, they’ve elected someone that wants to maintain these relationships, but how long until they vote in another demagogue?” The best part is that thread ends with a sentence that turned out to be pretty darn prescient:

geoduck no quahog said:

As of now, no one is talking about breaking any of the commitments in the NATO Charter, but we have an administration that’s playing politics with world security[…]

BroodsSexton

Lots of people are looking for answers on why Trump shifted so precipitously. This article tells a story of repeated brinksmanship between Trump and Erdogan. In this context, if Erdogan told him last week that he was in fact going forward—credibly called Trump’s bluff—Trump would want to get out ahead of it to look like he was in control, driving the narrative. It’s the ultimate weak play, but totally Trump.

Average Reds

I would be shocked if the answer is anything other than this.

Trump has literally one move – he talks tough, tosses out multiple bluffs and then backs down and claims victory. That may be a recipe for success in the world of Manhattan real estate, but it is less effective when dealing with ruthless dictators. Which is why Trump gets played all the damn time.

Reverend

This may not go far enough: There’s plenty of reason to believe that Trump collapsed after Erdogan called his bluff. But there’s also plenty of reason to believe that Erdogan himself was bluffing.

Firing on any NATO allied troops would give an already antagonistic NATO an out with respect to Turkey, to say nothing of they being US troops.

It’s like Trump doesn’t know that other people know about bluffing too. Heck, he doesn’t even appear to have known how strong his hand is and that NATO are actually good cards, even if he doesn’t like the artwork on them.

norm from cheers

Graham is meeting with Trump this afternoon. I won’t be surprised if Trump flips or Graham does…
Nancy Pelosi@SpeakerPelosi

Pleased to have a conversation with Senator @LindseyGrahamSC this morning. Our first order of business was to agree that we must have a bipartisan, bicameral joint resolution to overturn the President’s dangerous decision in Syria immediately.

[REDACTED COMMENTS: PLACEHOLDER]

BroodsSexton

Are there any memos of his conversations within Erdogan? It’s really not that farfetched to conclude that he provided Turkey with cover to fire on US troops and our allies—even if he’s now walking it back (which, again, is classic Trump). Depending on the facts, this is very close to going beyond “horrible foreign policy” and crossing over into treason.

Scott G

So, on top of everything else, Trump just admitted that he didn’t care about letting hundreds of ISIS members go because he felt other people should take care of it. I’m sure the same people who love him for “talking tough” will laud him for shrugging his shoulders.

RedSwarm86

Speak Loudly and Carry a Small Stick is indeed a strategy that resonates among The Base.

The Times article highlighted in the tweet is simply

Average Redsdevastating to Trump, as it makes the case that all of this is due to Trump’s impatience and unwillingness to plan.

He basically stumbled into this crisis by botching his conversation with Erdogan and now we’re faced with a rift within NATO and a loss of confidence in the U.S. around the world.

Not to beat a dead horse, but if a Democratic President ever made a mistake of this magnitude we’d have active duty Generals openly criticizing the President and accusing him/her of treason. But with Trump, we get James Mattis remaining silent in deference to his ego

dhappy42

Great article. This quote deserves attention:

“I think this is a first — a country with U.S. nuclear weapons stationed in it literally firing artillery at US forces,” Jeffrey Lewis of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies wrote last week.

Could anyone besides Donald Trump screw up this badly?

ConigliarosPotential

If Trump loses in November, or leaves office for whatever reason before that, I have to imagine some of these generals will come out of the woodwork shortly thereafter and retrospectively deliver their harsh criticisms to try and get on the right side of history. Cowardly, to be sure, but all of this really resembles what happened during the Red Scare and the height of McCarthyism: nobody wants to attack Trump in public, lest he (or she) have Trump and his minions and their admirers turn their fire on him (or her). Only when and if the dam breaches will everyone feel safe in taking the moral high ground.

RedSwarm86

I agree with your general point, but IIRC, there were a couple of generals that openly criticized Bill Clinton, and were promptly fired. Stanley McChrystal was relieved of his command for mocking Joe Biden. Generals open their mouths at risk to their careers and possibly their pensions.

Reverend

Claiming that the Kurds are releasing ISIS prisoners to get the US back involved is fucked up.

Reverend

The Kurds had already announced that they couldn’t defend the prisons. That’s very different from saying that they are purposely freeing them, which would obliterate the strategic and moral reasons for our presence there.

Like, on Twitter, there was a video going around that showed people leaving a prison under aerial attack. It was initially presented as ISIS inmates escaping with others fleeing the prison. Now it has a second life as allegedly showing the prisons releasing prisons for shits and giggles. It’s a shit show.

The most plausible reason for the Kurds to not want to release the ISIS prisoners is not because it supports the US but because ISIS wants to kill them. Like, a lot. Really, really kill them. And there are local militias they can join to do just that.

If anything, it’s notable that they didn’t execute them.

TheStoryofYourRedRightAnkle

Yeah, remarkable and likely regrettable restraint. No one would bat an eye had they lined them up and shot them all.

Reverend

It would have led to Turkey claiming that proved that they really are terrorists after all, reaffirming their alleged link to the PKK, which is Turkey’s large-scale political goal here, i.e. Kurd=PKK=terrorist.

There’s also the issue of their possible actual commitment to human rights and justice. But that’s crazy talk.

TheStoryofYourRedRightAnkle

Turkey’s gonna claim that regardless, but, yes, the Kruds are either admirably committed to human rights or miscalculated that the prisoners would be a bargaining chip with the US government or the US soldiers stationed with them and now everyone is simply scrambling too much to reenact the end of Life is Beautiful.

Reverend

Agree. Probably makes sense to take at face value their claim that they didn’t have a plan for this.

Watching them line up side-by-side with Assad should be… interesting.

Reverend

Trump has promised economic sanctions on Turkey.

Marciano490

So we get our allies killed and then hurt domestic companies by nixing a trade deal? What was wrong with the status quo ante?

Reverend

I think he thinks this is us washing our hands of the situation.

We’ll talk again when you all behave!

dhappy42

Well, this way Trump keeps his name on the hotel in Istanbul that Erdogan’s buddy owns and the $2 million in annual licensing fees keep flowing. So for Trump, Russia, Turkey (and ISIS,) it’s a win.

Reverend

Meanwhile they drop out of the F-35 program and buy S-400 missiles from Russia. What’s the dollar tag on that?

Devizier

Since there is no straightforward way to remove a country from NATO, Turkey’s incursion into Syria might have the effect of weakening, even splintering the alliance.

Reverend

Rolling Stone has put out a very good, albeit with a strong position, account of what’s being going on and what just went down with respect to the key parties in all this:

RollingStone: Tired of Winning: Trump Surrenders Northern Syria to Turkish Jihadists
It’s unreal how much damage and death Trump can cause with the drop of a single tweet

As Darnell’s Son said elsewhere, there is a Clancy-esque level of over-wroughtness to a lot of this.

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SirPsychoSquints

High crimes and misdemeanors does not mean literal violations of laws. High refers to the office the person holds. Crimes and misdemeanors is better understood as misconduct.

BrazilianSoxFan

Is this the closest to actual treason Trump ever got?

ISIS is an enemy of the state that you’re, de facto, at war with.

kneemoe

You’re probably right.

But if you can figure out who besides Erdogan benefits from this, you should write it up and get it out there because this has left seemingly everybody scratching their heads.

My guess is Putin – anything that erodes the international standingof the US, especially in that region, is to his benefit.

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Average Reds

It breaks my heart to have to write these words, but it seems fairly clear that Trump, at minimum, is an accomplice to an ongoing genocide.

Whether he was duped or had foreknowledge is almost immaterial, since we’re now seeing it play our in real time and Trump refuses to even acknowledge it.

The entirety of the Republican Party needs to be tarred and feathered as accomplices.

Dan Chipowski

His withdrawal was so precipitous, so ill-conceived, so unsupported by experts in the field, so poorly executed, and so utterly destructive and devastating to an ally, that any sane country would be openly discussing the 25th Amendment.

Curious to see how many books “Mad Dog” can sell to flag fuckers by continuing to honor his non-criticism obligations in the partisan breach.

YTF

Calling Trump inept may be the kindest thing we can say about him.

dhappy42

As horrific as the death toll resulting from Trump’s as yet inexplicable* betrayal of the Kurds may be, the damage to U.S. reputation and national security is extraordinary. Is it repairable? Will the world see Trump as an aberration, or instead as an extreme and unpredictable example of American foreign policy fecklessness?

A few quotes from a NYT news analysis illustrate the problem:

“I think many nations around the Middle East now are considering major changes in their strategic defense plans because they no longer see the United States as a reliable ally,” said Gamal Abdel Gawad Soltan, an adviser to the state-sponsored Al Ahram Center for Strategic Studies in Cairo.

“If you are someone that is a rival on the other side — you’re Iranian, Russian, Turkish, ISIS, Hezbollah — you understand that this is the time for gain,” argued Shimrit Meir, columnist for the Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronot.

“For the Americans, their friends are disposable,” he said. “The Americans, you look for them and they look for the closest exit. You turn around and you don’t find them[, said Mowaffak al-Rubaie, a former Iraqi national security adviser.]

NYTimes: Trump’s Abrupt Shifts in Middle East Unnerve U.S. Allies

There’s also a couple of quotes from Gen. Mattis in that article, from a few months ago when Trump raised the idea of withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria, predicting the resurrection and resurgence of ISIS if the U.S. were to do so. So Trump can’t say he wasn’t warned. He knew the consequences.

So why did he do it?

Syria is (or until now, was) a tiny blip on the Trump base’s radar. It’s not like the wall, being mean to Mexicans, the Muslim travel ban or acting tough on trade, promises Trump feels obliged to keep.

So why did he do it?

Especially now, when he’s facing impeachment and can’t afford to lose the support of five or, worse, 20 Republican Senators. Republican Senate reaction has been mostly muted and mixed, but why take this risk at all and why take it now?

Speaking of risks, Trump has been lucky that no U.S. soldiers have been killed (that we know of) in the Turkish offensive. Imagine the uproar. Could Fox excuse even that?

Even if withdrawing from Syria is one of those bad ideas that’s stuck in his head that he can effectuate now that there are no “adults in the room” anymore, what’s the upside?

*I wrote “as yet inexplicable” above because there must be a reason. We just don’t know it yet. Most of the reporting so far (that I’ve seen) has been on the effect, not the cause.

Based on Trump’s past behavior, we can speculate that Erdogan bribed or blackmailed Trump, forcing a quick decision. And that the U.S. pullout from Syria has been a longstanding Putin ask and Trump promise that he’s desperate to fulfill as impeachment looms. Proving either or both of those things could be difficult, but as more and more rats flee Trump’s sinking ship, maybe not.

Reverend

Tweetbots last night were disseminating a Sputnik article from February that covered, among the things, Assad warning the Kurds that their US allies would abandon them.

geoduck no quahog

The totally obvious answer to me (not ground breaking) is that Putin is succeeding in tearing a NATO ally out of the equation. The guy is brilliant in his control of Trump. Turkey, with Erdogan, is going to dramatically wound the alliance. Trump will fulfill his assigned task of weakening Europe and America.

YTF

From the earliest days of this administration when it appeared that Trump was more than willing to test long time allies while embracing traditional threats to our country I have expressed concern over how he, and more important how our country, would be viewed on the world stage. I think our reputation is repairable for sure, but not until Trump is out of office and his successor has earned the trust that we once held in the world community. Other countries still depend on our relationship for shared military intel and economic concerns, but the level of trust has no doubt been badly damaged. Trump has no issue tweeting sensitive information that can compromise the personnel of our military as well as that of our allies and their sources. He’s also constantly threatening the economies of other countries. Just as we have allowed other countries to reestablish and rebuild their relationship with us, we will be allowed to reestablish and rebuild our relationship with them, but it is going to take time and will happen at their pace and discretion. Their trust will need to be earned.

dhappy42

I’m one of those folks who thinks 99% of voters have already made up their mind about voting for Trump or for *anyone* who runs against him and that the only thing that really matters in 2020 is turnout.

That said…

Is there a way to clearly and simply articulate what you’ve written above, that regardless of whether Trump is a traitor or stooge, he poses a huge threat to U.S. national security? This seems like a unique opportunity for Democrats to change the conventional wisdom about Republicans being the party that’s strong on defense issues and anti- terrorism.

YTF

Sort of a “He is who we thought he was.” campaign might be a way to counter the “Promises made, promises kept.” campaign that we will surely see from the re-election effort. Lay out the fears and concerns that many had leading into this presidency and for each one of those exhibit the blatant example(s) that show that concern has been realized. On a daily basis Trump beats his base over the head with his greatest hits of the wall, the economy, the military, the deep state, the greatest hoax/witch hunt in the history of the country, they’re coming for your guns, etc…There is without out doubt a counter to this to be made. It doesn’t have to be as complicated as the Meuller investigation or articles of impeachment, just lay out the lies, contradictions, examples of bad faith politics/policies that have led to where we are in the eyes of the world.

Bozo Texino

Was Russia also going to vote to condemn Turkey’s invasion?

Average Reds

A more interesting question would be whether they knew ahead of time that they wouldn’t have to use their veto to block the resolution.

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Exclusive: Military leader of Syrian Kurds tells US ‘you are leaving us to be slaughtered’

TallerThanPedroia

NBC chief foreign correspondent:

“Turkey’s conflict in Syria took a major turn today. First alleged atrocities by Turkish-backed Arab militias, executing Kurds. US military officials tell me it’s true, and they are DEEPLY concerned it opens the door to BOTH ethnic cleansing of Kurds and return of ISIS/Al-Qaeda “

Marciano490

Maybe I still have South Park’s Mexican Joker episode in my head, but deserting a allies and acquiescing in their slaughter seems like a really good way to sign off on generations of the survivors hating the US.

Reverend

The Kurds are probably the people in the region most on “the right side of history” too.

It’s an over-generalization, sure. But the bar is kinda low. But the Kurds have been engaging in some very interesting politics that simply isn’t being covered here for large-p “Political reasons.” Really fascinating self-conscious democratic theory and experiments going on, which may be why basically everyone around them is fighting them. 🙂

If anyone is interested, instead of googling “SDF” and “Kurds,” check out “Rojava”. Really interesting stuff. It may well be the most interesting experiment in free liberal democracy on the planet right now, like the New England town meeting or the Paris Commune were in their own days, but with more guns.

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ZMart100

Sounds like it has and the Turkish media are celebrating

I’m not particularly worried about Iran attacking the Turks here. The protests seem to be mostly the Iranian Kurdish minority. They are easily ignored by the Persians actually running the country.

Reverend

I was more intrigued that Iran appeared to be allowing the protests of the Turkish embassy.

Like you said: They don’t give a shit abut the Kurds.

Reverend

Just for good measure to pull a bunch of strands of this thread on the region together, there appear to be significant protests of Turkey’s actions in Iran.

So that’s fun.

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QUESTIONS RE: TURKEY INVOKING ARTICLE V OF NATO

Reverend

They would try, and have explored it in the past. They even invoked article 4 emergency powers once in the past, which resulted in them receiving air defenses in response to the downed jet. But it was wifey believed they really wanted to invoke article 5 and just didn’t believe they’d have the support to pull it off.

That possibility has been complicated recently by the US’s backing of SDF, who fights both Turkey and ISIS, so in effect, the US was backing forces fighting another NATO country based on the premise that they only supported them when they fight ISIS and not when they fight Turkey. (US nationals fighting in the region have been told that they could be charged with terrorism is they fight Turkey, but fighting ISIS is cool.)

Turkey would have been wary of kicking that beehive while the US was playing a role given the complicated nature of our role. Now? We’ll see if Turkey goes for it again.

.Reverend

This is a cool piece on what “the Kurds” are all about and their positioning in the region is from the POV of the ground.

Mother Jones: I Went to Syria and Met the People Trump Just Gave Turkey Permission to Kill
An anarchist revolution—and the Americans volunteering to defend it.

The last part about that radicals of all stripes protecting their hopes and dreams on the canvas of a chaotic and unformed Syria was particularly poignant. The place is a mess and all the messy people are dabbing their fingers in it.

AB in DC

I wouldn’t say impeachment worthy, but this needs to be front page news on NYT/WP/CNN/etc. Haven’t we learned anything from Bosnia, Rwanda, Darfur, etc. etc. etc?

AB in DC

Actually, I take that back re impeachment. There’s enough question about Trump’s foreign policy that Bribery/Treason can’t be ruled out. If there were a lefty version of Fox News they’d be hammering this angle 24/7.

Reverend

Who knows what will happen, but it is already in the process of coming to pass.

Specifically, pictures are emerging of TFSA (Turkish backed Free Syrian Army) units with members openly wearing ISIS and al-queda insignias. (Many consider TFSA and ISIS to be observationally equivalent in terms of their immediate goals.) Also, ISIS has claimed responsibility for car bombings in cities under Turkish shelling, including one that appears to have been part of a jailbreak by ISIS prisoners.

The Kurds have said they cannot protect the ISIS prisoners on their own. Also, it’s been reported that one of the remaining US positions experienced “bracketing” fire from Turkey around their position, believed to be an attempt to make them move back or, at least, not move around.

I dunno how many comic book readers there are here, but remember in Marvel’s Civil War where the government recruits a bunch of super villains to help them get the super heroes?

AB in DC

Well, except for the whole bit about “Treason, Bribery, and other High Crimes and Misdemeanors” that the Constitution requires. But otherwise, yeah.

SoFloSoxFan

Disqualifyingly incompetent horribly ill-advised foreign policy is not technically an impeachable offense, as far as I know. If Trump chose this route because Putin told him to, or in order to protect his business interests or what have you, it is absolutely impeachable.

dhappy42

If you can impeach a president for lying about a blow job, you can impeach a president for giving Turkey a green light to slaughter Kurds and revitalizing ISIS. But that’s because in practice the House can impeach a president for any reason. For Trump’s betrayal of the Kurds to be an impeachable offense under “normal” rules, there’d have to be some kind of corruption, abuse of power or treason involved. Given it’s Trump, there almost certainly is.

Reverend

You’re probably right.

But if you can figure out who besides Erdogan benefits from this, you should write it up and get it out there because this has left seemingly everybody scratching their heads.

dhappy42

Putin benefits. There is nothing good about this. It’s appalling and exhibit #927 of Trump acting against US interests, but in favor of Russia’s national interests. But so far (or as far as I know) there’s no public evidence that Trumps decision is based on anything other than stupidity and/or obsequiousness. I expect that will change and we wil find out he sold out the Kurds in exchange for some favor.

SoFloSoxFan

Under “normal” rules there has to be, as stated before ” the whole bit about “Treason, Bribery, and other High Crimes and Misdemeanors” that the Constitution requires “.

Lying about a blow job under oath was perjury.

I understand impeachment is an entirely political process and what is impeachable is up to the majority of the house at any given moment, and I don’t really doubt there is some underlying crime here. I was only saying that as Commander in Chief, that ordering troops to stand down , as inhumane as it is, as damaging to the USA moving forward as it will be, as evil as it seems to be, is not actually a crime as far as I can tell.

dhappy42

I think I’m agreeing with you, with the caveat that since we’re talking about Trump, there’s likely an underlying corrupt and or criminal component to betrayal of the Kurds.

Edit: You talkin to me? No? Nevermind.

SoFloSoxFan

I don’t think I said that, but I’m not married to my non expert views on this. Even though the constitution doesn’t actually mention the Oath in the impeachment section, I’m willing to listen to how what he did is against the oath of office.

SoFloSoxFan

I think we’re essentially in total agreement on this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TallerThanPedroia

Turkey shells some of our Special Forces:

Newsweek: EXCLUSIVE: TURKEY ATTACKS US SPECIAL FORCES IN SYRIA, APPARENTLY BY MISTAKE

Just an honest mistake between friends, no doubt.

Reverend

Isn’t this getting close to the premise of The Rock?

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geoduck no quahog

Plus Assad and Iran both hate the Kurds, so Russia’s allies benefit from a Turkish invasion.

…But, as NOLA says, the NATO thing must be at the forefront of Russia’s wishlist.

Hyde Park Factor

Trump reportedly offered to sell F-35 jets to Turkey in exchange for not attacking Kurdish forces in Syria – Business Insider Malaysia

Apologies if this has been covered (on my phone!), but isn’t this a huge F U to Trump? Did he over play his hand here?

It reads to me like he offered the jets in exchange for Turkey not attacking Syria, and then they attacked later that same day.

Bozo Texino

He looks so, so weak.

He dug himself a hole that he then desperately tried to get out of. And it still didn’t work.

8slim

He is weak and he has a long track record of being a terrible negotiator. That so many of his supporters like him because he’s “tough” is a testament to how relentless self-branding and charisma can blind tons of people.

Average Reds

The only one who looks weaker here is James Mattis.

His continued silence is pathetic.

Dan Chipowski

I’m sure he’ll find a way to blame this on Obama or Biden, like most other Trump supporters do with his actions and even his literal presidency.

Dan Chipowksi

Think he’s going to make Turkey an unsecured creditor? Because that would be some 4D chess.

barbed wire Bob

Basically but it’s a little more complicated than that. The F-35 program was originally conceived to be a multinational project where other countries would provide financial backing, help build the thing and buy it for their own air forces. Turkey joined the project in 2002 and there was a plan that a Turkish company would build the planes in Turkey under license. That plan went off the rails when Turkey announced they would buy a Russian made air defense system and the Pentagon kicked them out the of the program because “The F-35 cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform that will be used to learn about its advanced capabilities.” But the Pentagon left the open the door that Turkey would be allowed back in if they didn’t buy Russian equipment. Turkey said F U and purchased the Russian air defense system. My guess is that the Turks are still irked and basically took Trump’s offer for what it was worth which was basically nothing

DefenseNews: Turkey officially kicked out of F-35 program, costing US half a billion dollars

Hyde Park Factor

Thanks for the clarification – I figured there was more “there” there.

TallerThanPedroia

Not that it should matter but Trump is of course wrong on history:

“The #Kurds DID fight on the Allied side in WW2.
They helped break the siege following the 1941 pro-Nazi Coup d’état in Iraq & were part of the (pro-Allied) Iraq Levies. By 1942 Kurds made up 25% of the force. By 1943, 10 of the 44 companies comprising the Iraq Levies were Kurdish”

dhappy42

Thanks for doing the research on that. It confirms my theory that Trump is wrong about or lies about *everything.*

phenweigh

Netanyahu tweets; Israel strongly condemns the Turkish invasion of the Kurdish areas in Syria and warns against the ethnic cleansing of the Kurds by Turkey and its proxies. Israel is prepared to extend humanitarian assistance to the gallant Kurdish people.

So many of Trump’s allies oppose him on this withdrawal, yet he continues to double down. It’s like the hurricane path to Alabama, but with dire consequences.

geoduck no quahog

MBS seems unusually quiet about this. Perhaps he’s come to the conclusion that his puppy is actually demented and there’s nothing to be done.

Any news out of the KSA?

BrazilianSoxFan

I don’t know if I am being too paranoid, but this reads like Trump tried to give secrets to Russia (Advanced capabilities of the F35) and disguised it as fulfilling campaign promises (bringing troops back) but undervalued the Turkish desire for murdering Kurds.

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POLITICO: Lindsey Graham dishes on Trump in hoax calls with Russians
Graham thought he was speaking with Turkey’s minister of defense. Instead, it was a pair of Russian pranksters.

Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has in the last year become something of a congressional point man for President Donald Trump’s negotiations with Turkey, leading discussions on everything from Ankara’s purchase of a Russian missile system over the summer to their more recent incursion into northern Syria.

So when he received a call from a man he thought was Turkey’s minister of defense earlier in August, it didn’t strike him as unusual. “Thank you so much for calling me, Mr. Minister,” Graham said. “I want to make this a win-win, if we can.”

But it wasn’t the Turkish defense minister at all. Instead, it was Alexey Stolyarov and Vladimir Kuznetsov, Russian pranksters with suspected ties to the country’s intelligence services who go by “Lexus and Vovan.” The duo have become notorious in recent years for their cold calls to unwitting, high-profile Western politicians, including Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, leading some to suspect that they’ve had help from the Kremlin, according to The Guardian. (A Schiff spokesman said at the time that the House Intelligence Committee “informed appropriate law enforcement and security personnel of the conversation.”)
Story Continued Below

Kevin Bishop, a spokesman for Graham, confirmed the call’s authenticity to POLITICO. “We have been successful in stopping many efforts to prank Senator Graham and the office, but this one slipped through the cracks,” he said. “They got him.”

The substance of Graham’s conversation with Stolyarov, who was posing as Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, is newly relevant in light of the South Carolina senator’s push for sanctions on Turkey as punishment for their offensive against the Kurds in northern Syria. Graham labeled the Kurds a “threat” to Turkey in the call, seemingly contradicting what he has said publicly in recent days.

Graham also mentions Trump’s personal interest in a “Turkish bank case” in the call that appears to refer to a U.S. case involving Reza Zarrab, an Iranian-Turkish gold trader and client of Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani. Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Trump had asked then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in 2017 to help persuade the Justice Department to drop the Zarrab case.

The pranksters’ conversation with Graham, a Trump ally who has the president’s ear on national security issues, also raises obvious questions about potential security breaches. While the pranks appear on their face to have been relatively harmless, the incident suggests it’s getting easier for bad actors to elicit sensitive information from policymakers. Stolyarov provided POLITICO with a recording of their call.

“Your YPG Kurdish problem is a big problem,” Graham told the pranksters. He was referring to the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, a group that began fighting ISIS as part of the Syrian Democratic Forces in 2015—with support from the U.S.—but is considered a terrorist group by Turkey because of its push to establish an autonomous state for the Kurds on the Turkish-Syrian border.
“I told President Trump that Obama made a huge mistake in relying on the YPG Kurds,” Graham continued. “Everything I worried about has come true, and now we have to make sure Turkey is protected from this threat in Syria. I’m sympathetic to the YPG problem, and so is the president, quite frankly.”

The pranksters managed to get Graham on the phone again a few days after the first call. In the second call, Graham says he met with Trump to discuss what the “defense minister” had told him. “We want a better relationship with Turkey. That’s exactly what he wants,” Graham said, referring to Trump and again urging Turkey to rethink the S-400 purchase.

Graham then raised an issue that’s been top of mind for Erdogan for years—the U.S. case involving Zarrab, who was convicted in 2018 and sentenced to 32 months in prison stemming partly from bribes he paid to Turkish bank officers.

“And this case involving the Turkish bank, he’s very sensitive to that,” Graham said of Trump. “The president wants to be helpful, within the limits of his power.”

According to U.S. prosecutors, Zarrab and others used the Turkish bank Halkbank to “launder billions of dollars-worth of Iranian oil proceeds, ultimately creating a slush fund for Iran to use however it wished — the very harm that U.S. sanctions were put in place to avoid.” A senior banker at Halkbank was found guilty of working to evade sanctions on Iran, and Halbank itself could still face fines by the Treasury Department.

In the hoax call, Graham suggested that the president would try to help Erdogan regarding that case as best he could. “I like President Erdogan,” Graham told the pranksters. “I think President Trump likes President Erdogan. I think he’s a strong man and we need to deal with strong people.”

Bishop, Graham’s spokesman, said in a statement that “it’s no secret Senator Graham has often traveled to Turkey and continued to speak with many members of Turkish government, including President Erdogan, about the relationship between our two countries.”

“He has been clear he wants a stronger relationship and often talked about the importance of maintaining peace in northern Syria to prevent the reemergence of ISIS,” Bishop added.

“With Turkey’s invasion into northern Syria the drive for better relations between our two countries has suffered a body blow. Turkey should immediately withdraw their military forces and America should reinstitute the safe zone concept to keep the peace in the region. Until this is done, Senator Graham will continue to push for severe, biting sanctions against Turkey.”