So what is it that the US is doing anyway.

They’re fighting ISIS.

They’re fighting ISIS with Iraq. They’re fighting ISIS with SDF. They’re fighting ISIS with the Kurds. They’re just saying. Well, they’re not just saying, they’re also clearly doing.

How does this guy keep getting such choice footage of the high powered action stuff the US military is doing at any given time. He’s so lucky.

Speaking of just saying, we still don’t know who bombed those TFSA ISIS oil smuggler bad guys, do we?

I would never compare any part of our armed forces to OJ Simpson the man, but they sorta reminded me of that book he wrote: If I Did It.

They aren’t saying they did it. But they are definitely saying they could have done it.

There’s this.

AWESOME!! Turkish propaganda is stupid ours is awesome. Funny how that works. But if you can’t read it, here it is in English.

Now, it should be noted that they do put these videos out, but only sometimes do they put them out in two languages. Usually the main Operation Inherent Resolve accounts Tweet their stuff, and then when an affiliated entity Tweets about something they did, OIR retweets it. In this case, they tweeted their own version and retweeted the Iraqi Air Force tweet in Arabic and the effect is that for anyone listening, we really, really want everyone to understand what we did.

It has a stirring effect. It’s got that real multiple monitor NORAD Tony Stark’s Tower world domination vibe.

And, really, no, seriously, we can’t repeat this enough, it’s very important that you know with great precision, no pun intended, how good we are at killing ISIS from the air.

The Defense Post: Iraqi air force drops Paveway II laser-guided bombs on ISIS positions near Tikrit

Iraqi Air Force F-16 fight jets dropped GBU-10 Paveway II laser-guided bombs on Islamic State positions in northern Iraq, the Coalition against ISIS said on Tuesday, November 26.

“Two Iraqi Air Force 9th Fighter Squadron F-16s dropped two precision-guided munitions weighing 2,000 pounds each during an Iraqi-led operation to defeat Daesh fuel and vehicle storage facilities and bed-down locations,” CJTF-OIR said in a statement, using an Arabic acronym for Islamic State. “The Iraqi Air Force led the effort to include the pre-brief, execution and debrief of the mission.”

A video included in the release identified the date as November 24 and the location as in the vicinity of the Hamrin lake. ISIS once maintained an extensive tunnel system in the nearby mountains.

That piece actually includes a brief fucking history of the development of the weapons used, I shit you not. And there is detail on the operation. I generally don’t get anything coming across my feed that is so oddly specific about how they do raids—and, for that matter, how long they’ve been doing them.

So, they’re fighting ISIS with the SDF. And they could have done the air strike if they wanted to, not saying we did, but just saying—this is how we do things when we do them. Are we communicating yet?

I dunno if they did it or not. But the statement works either way.

So there’s that stuff, and then, of course, they’re cruising around their “expansive” region of coverage.

I love how closely the people on the ground monitor the US movements, even though half the time it seems like the US forces basically disappear.

Through this process, which I’ve discussed before, of error correction, I’ve even learned a bit of where some of the confusion comes from. Part of the problem, apparently, is that “panzer” is slang for all armor. But then when you have one word for all armor and it happens to be one traditionally associated with tanks, the reporting gets confused.

As I said, some of the people on Rojava twitter are super into being very clear.

Speaking of very clear, two examples of clarity and confusion in messaging.

Two months ago, I wouldn’t have given this video a second thought. Now the thing that jumps out at me is that the weapon briefly flashed in the opening is wrapped in pink.

Intentional? I just don’t know anymore with these guys. But I definitely wouldn’t doubt it. They are that subtle when they want to be, and they are that good.

So we know the video is a communication—I mean, that’s why people make videos, yeah? But some of what is communicated is not always clear. And there may be power in that too.

Interestingly, something can be confused in communication, and yet the message(s) received are completely clear.

Like, probably because it’s so damned important to them, they are able to make perfect sense of what our media claims is a confused message from the US government.

They summarize the whole political message of the video in two lines. They seem to find this all incredibly transparent.

For some reason, our media is reporting what is going on as unclear simply because the message is a little garbled. The people of Rojava have, perhaps, a stronger incentive to listen more closely.

This is not to say our policy is or will remain clear and consistent. But however muddled the message is, or the policy is for that matter, it can still be understood. OIR generally seems to be pretty clear about what they want us to know—that’s even addressed in the NYTimes video that they helpfully provide in the Tweet.

 

One thing that Russia and Turkey can agree on, albeit for different reasons, is completely fucking with NATO.

Today in Turkey fucking up NATO:

Reuters: Exclusive: Turkey holds up NATO military plans over Syria dispute – sources

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Turkey is refusing to back a NATO defense plan for the Baltics and Poland until the alliance offers Ankara more political support for its fight against Kurdish YPG militia in northern Syria, four senior alliance sources said.

Ankara has told its NATO envoy not to sign off on the plan and is taking a tough line in meetings and in private conversations, demanding the alliance recognize the YPG as terrorists in the formal wording, the sources said.

NATO was founded to stop Russian (Soviet Union) aggression and influence in Europe. Turkey is preventing NATO from fulfilling its mission unless NATO supports them in doing their stupid hateful evil shit.

And now Turkey is holding NATO’s primary mission hostage.

There are US politicians who are increasingly speaking out about this, but, I mean, it seems less like speaking truth to power than it is speaking obviousness to power.

Obviousness will not set you free though—truth does that. That which is obvious is generally already well known; it’s obvious.

Once again: Everybody knows what it going on. They haven’t figured out what to do with it.

But it is still a problem. Both stupid and terrible.

 

So, what does Russia want?

Well, what are they doing? What do they say they want?

OK, interesting. Russia is doing none of that. Literally none, and stopping Turkey encroaching on Ayn Issa is probably simply an act of will—it sure as shit is with the US—so it’s not like they’re even trying. Good talk.

Let’s recall this Tweet for a moment.

So, as per the previous posts, the war seems to have stalled—although that means maintaining the previous status quo, which is really bad for people who are in  a steady state of being bombed, or having their homes “cleansed” of them and so forth. Stalled, it seems, for the geopolitical maneuvers to work out.

So basically, Turkey is trying to maintain or increase its independence to do what it wants to do, the possible constraints being NATO, coalition (US), and Russia.

Which is why the S-400 missile air defense system that, to recall, Turkey got kicked out of the F-35 program for buying from Russia due to their possession of it being incompatible with existing systems, or something like that.

Obviously an attempt at a show of force and independence from the US and, by extension, NATO.

The US, predictably, doesn’t like it.

And then, of course, either the coalition or Russia hit some TFSA hard in the north after the first test, and Russia and SAA appear to be routing the opposition in the west. It’s early, but whatever Erdogan thought it would accomplish, it appears that Turkey’s attempt at flexing has not had the desired outcomes.

Which brings us to the issue of what Russia wants to the forefront, as it has to do with the relationships between her would be client states.

Russia still wants the SDF to join the Syrian army.

Seems that that’s what Russia has really always wanted, as then the SDF as an independent force is dissolved and Erdogan has less leverage for its intervention and Assad can reconsolidate territorial Syria under Russian strings influence—and then Iran has to go through Russia as well.

Russian pressure for the consolidation seems to be increasing. Russia’s leverage here, of course, came when the SDF had to cut a deal with Russia and Assad after the US announced its withdrawal. At the time, as they stated explicitly and publicly, Russia was their only option. Notably, that may no longer be the case, depending on what the US is doing of course.

Russia has been the hardest nut to crack of all in all this, but it really looks like Russia is… offering Turkey a choice between Russia and NATO?

Maybe not explicitly or legally or formally, but this is definitely a sphere of influence kind of thing and Russia is trying to pull Turkey into their sphere, have them use their weapons, lean on them for support, etc.

I’m about 92% sure I know who NATO would like Turkey to choose at this point and would be happy to help pack their bags—cause Lord knows they don’t have the wherewithal to kick Turkey out of their house.

The very idea of this kind of choice is, of course, is very strange, historically speaking: It counters the historical trend of countries wanting to join NATO.

Countries like, for example, Turkey. Go figure.

But Russia definitely wants the influence. Of course, the US is the wildcard that can muck up Russia’s machinations. A substantial chunk of Russia’s leverage came from the SDF having to cut a deal with them and, by extension, Assad. So the US’s announced re-engagment of the engagement that they never actually disengaged from during the cease fire than never happened following the withdrawal that was never really undertaken… should complicate Russia’s position.

So good thing we have PBS by our side to amplify Russia’s concern trolling of the the Kurds.

PBS: Russia warns Syrian Kurds against relying on U.S. support

MOSCOW (AP) — Russia’s foreign minister is warning Syria’s Kurds that relying on U.S. support “won’t bring them any good.”

Sergey Lavrov on Tuesday accused Syria’s Kurds of failing to abide by a Russia-Turkey deal that halted a Turkish offensive into Syria.

He says the Kurds are trying to stay allied with the U.S., and avoid engaging in dialogue with the Syrian government.

Et tu, PBS?

There’s almost no content in that article. Just more mouth-piecing for state actors whose truths are at best orthogonal to reality. As always, what they say might be true, but it’s always what they want you to hear to accomplish their own goals. That’s not cynicism, it’s the theory of real politick.

Why the media thinks the states are not loud enough on their own without amplification eludes me.

If anything, Russia sounds concerned; Russia’s plans were predicated on a certain set of arrangements that may be in jeopardy with the US’s new announcement that they are instituting the same mission they’ve always had now that… whatever.

Like, why do you even bring up your partner’s ex unless something’s bugging you, yeah? Russia sounds worried to me.

And, I mean, we’ve already seen evidence that respect for the US military remains very, very high. To the point that, as we’ve seen, it’s funny—on multiple levels.

“Please don’t go. You promised!”

Honestly, Russia doesn’t usually act this lame.

And yeah, maybe Russia should be worried? The US, claiming to have never really been absent, are behaving as though they are back in terms of their announcements, specifically with respect to conducting operations with and that benefit the SDF and affiliated types.

Opening the south eastern border crossing signals both the intention of staying, and supporting the socio-economic situation in that region.

Getcha’ popcorn ready.

 

So, unlike trying to parse how Erdogan intends to proceed with the future of his operations, the description of how he is proceeding with the ethnic cleansing component while the geopolitical chess match plays out is pretty straightforward.

With one incredibly fucked up twist. But we’ll get to that by banging through the basic story.

First, in case it was not yet clear that this is ethnic cleansing and that Turkey has done it before, some people drew us a map. Literally.

So, this has happened before.

As part of their campaign, Turkey is lying about who normally lives where. Something about the hubris of telling other people where they live and belong seems to stand out even among his other many sins. It may not be as evil as some things he’s done, but as a peek into his through process… ew.

RUDAW: Misrepresenting northeast Syria’s Kurdish demographics is dangerous

On November 15, Assad claimed northeast Syria is “a majority Arab area”, adding that 70 percent of its residents are Arabs.

“Things are different from northern Iraq and southeast of Turkey,” he said. “There is no Kurdish majority in this area.”

On October 25, Erdogan misrepresented the landscape of northeast Syria in order to justify his planned settlement of Syrian refugees in Turkey there.

“What is important is to prepare a controlled life in this enormous area, and the most suitable people for it are Arabs,” Erdogan argued in an interview with TRT.

“These areas are not suitable for the lifestyle of Kurds… because these areas are virtually desert.”

Both statements are disingenuous. The Syrian Kurdish heartland is in northeast Syria and Kurds make up a substantial part of the population there.

Furthermore, northeast Syria is not “virtually desert” as Erdogan claimed. Hasaka, for example, is invariably described as Syria’s “breadbasket”.

Both leaders’ misrepresentations of northeast Syria’s Kurdish demographics are cause for concern. This is because both men seek to, at the very least, curtail Kurdish self-determination there.

And then there’s some good history in there about the political struggle over federalism and the Syrian constitution and the problem of disadvantaged minorities and such.

Putting aside Erdogan’s description of the region that used to be known as the “fertile crescent,” we can see that, as per usual, he’s just making shit up to create some bullshit narrative—including a fictional history made from whole cloth—to claim that what he wants to do just makes sense.

He’s reasonable. This is all reasonable. Even the parts that are made up? Especially the parts that are made up.

So: Ethnic cleansing.

Now that it’s underway, we can see that there are two components: supply and demand.

By demand side, we may think in terms of trying to “reduce demand” for living in the region on the part of the people who live there. This is the campaign to blow shit up, vandalize, steal, remove the people’s social and political power, and otherwise just generally oppress a population until they decide to leave.

Supply side is to introduce a new supply of people to swamp the existing population and to dilute and ultimately dominate them socially and culturally until those who remain cease to be a people.

There’s some added flavor in that Turkey can do a little bit of the same time here due to the fact that it is understood that there is some significant portion of jihadi sympathizers among the refugees being moved here.

So, there is guaranteed to be mistrust both between the existing population and the new population, and also perhaps within the new population between the pro- and not pro- ISIS portions of the population.

Some people will be justifiably believed to be ISIS. Others will be unjustly judged to be ISIS. Uncertainty and resentment will reign. Remember: Feature, not bug.

Now here’s the kicker: The Arabs being settled there don’t want to fucking be there.

You have got to be shitting me.

So Erdogan’s plan is even more fucked up than normal ethnic cleansing as he’s forcing an already displaced refugee population into a new location that they will not consider home, so they’re still a displaced people, they’re just being displaced again. So, even if this wasn’t an effort at ethnic cleansing, it’s still an incredibly fucked up thing to do to a refugee population.

It’s not just that moving a population that is displaced to another place where they are still displaced is internally incoherent as a solution to a displaced refugee population. It’s somehow worse.

Erdogan is displacing a second time a displaced refugee population in a way that doesn’t solve their situation, may worsen it in some important ways, and he is subjecting these people to this in order to ethnically cleanse another disadvantaged population from the face of the earth.

What the fuck?

I mean, they want to go back to Idlib instead of living there. Idlib. That ought to tell us the kind of connection to place people in the region have—something I struggle to understand as an American who can trace my families connection to this country back at least a couple of months or so in relative terms as compared to the familial connections in some other places in the world that may extend back like 800 years.

And people wonder why it’s so hard to secure border in some parts of the world. As though a family that’s lived there for almost a millenium cares where some people in suits said the boundary is.

The above doesn’t even address that time Erdogan said he would never move the refugees back out of Turkey as that would be too inhumane. That’s just the creepy foreshadowing.

@Marciano490 brought up earlier that even back then, pulling out on “the Kurds,” could lead to a “Mexican Joker” scenario, as laid out in a South Park episode where Stan points out that putting children into detention centers at the border could start one of the kids onto the path of being a super villain.

That made sense to me then. This is like a hundred times worse.

Like, take an Arab kid there, who’s been displaced from his war-torn home in Syria, lived as a refugee for years in Turkey, probably encountering jihadis in the camps, then gets moved back to another place in Syria that was recently (or still is) a combat zone that isn’t home and the people there don’t want him there and hate and fear him because they suspect he might be ISIS, a general malaise that pervades the whole local society.

Yeah, that’s definitely a Mexican Joker scenario.

Let’s also not forget that Erdogan has more influence with jihadi types than anyone else in the region—they seem to understand he is a kindred spirit at least (Erdogan uses a lot more religious speech and symbology when addressing the people of Turkey than he does when dealing with America, and it’s striking.)—so if the ill will drives some people to ISIS, he doesn’t give a shit.

So this is a huge problem. Fortunately, people are having meetings.

Also, Turkey is not completely without international support for his objectives.

He has the support of <checks notes> Qatar.

Reuters: Erdogan says Qatar backs Turkey’s plans to settle Syrian refugees – NTV

Speaking to reporters on his return flight from a visit to Doha, Erdogan said he presented his plans to Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, adding that “Mr Tamim liked our projects”, according to NTV.

Well, I didn’t realize. I guess that’s settled then.

Assholes.

Incidentally, this article by Reuters goes from dumb to offensive when you realize that this isn’t news: This has been Qatar’s position all along. Seriously. Go look it up. This shit just keeps happening. Do the news outlets even understand that they’re pawns?

So Reuters is just amplifying the message now for no other reason than the fact that Turkey wants to make some noise about it.

GJ;GE.

 

Turkey has signaled quite loudly its intention to push forward with its plans.

Ahval: Turkey to push forward with Syria offensive until goals met

Turkey will continue with its military offensive in northeast Syria targeting Kurdish forces until its goals are reached, the country’s National Security Council said on Tuesday.

That’s the only paragraph of 13 that offers anything that can be called new information. And it’s not really new but a statement that there is nothing new. The rest is just taking the opportunity to restate Turkey’s position of what this is all about—and presenting it as news, ostensibly so that people will read it.

NPA: “Turkey is maneuvering, the military operation in northeastern Syria will not be ceased” – Analyst

The Russian expert said that the announcement of the start-up of the [S-400 air defense system] test is a new political maneuver by Turkey, in order to obtain U.S.-European privileges, especially since the Turkish armament is Western, and the Russian system is contrary to the systems operating in the Turkish army. He considered that Turkey is well-practiced in its political maneuvers, and usually preserves cards to help it with the political maneuvering, especially since the Syrian file is still at the international negotiating table on one hand, and at the table of the main parties (Russia- Turkey- Iran) on the other hand, in addition to the fact that there are still heated consultations for ending the presence of the terrorist groups on the Syrian territories.

Turkey plays a pivotal role by supporting many of the terrorist groups in Idlib, despite its alleged promises, more than once to dissolve and stop supporting these groups that refuse to surrender their weapons, according to the Russian expert.

That may have gotten TFSA bombed, but that’s not a lot of skin off of Erdogan’s back. So more analysis favoring the idea that the S-400 test is all about leverage. Politics. Which does suggest that Turkey still seeks political leverage, which is itself interesting insofar as they’ve been pretty much operating according to the FU school of foreign relations thus far.

They go on to suggest that they expect Turkey to resume military operations—perhaps why they wish to maintain political leverage, as with they’re ongoing attempts to mess up NATO—but also suggest that Russia may be considering cards to play, such as weapons sales but also other possibilities, to deter Turkey.

Haartz: Analysis The Slaughter in Syria Still Goes On
Kurds who were in the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria during Turkey’s military operation in October belie Ankara’s claims that it’s only fighting terrorists

After a few days in which the world showed signs of concern over the hundreds of people were were killed or wounded and the thousands more who were expelled, the imaginary cease-fire has calmed international public opinion and allowed Turkey to continue with its plans for regional domination. But the fire has not ceased and quiet has not been restored. All the world needs to do in order to realize is to stop plugging up its ears.

So, this is refreshing. Definitely worth a read. Basically, instead of reporting on what Turkey says, they interviewed some people from Syria who told them shit was totally fucked there and described it and they wrote that story.

And in addition to having lots of interesting details to support it, that’s a really solid paragraph. It gets more done than whole articles that detail some nonsense announced to the world precisely to distract it.

So it maybe makes more sense to try to breakdown what Turkey intends based on what they said (and why we think they said it) rather than just taking what they say at face value.

South Front: SYRIA’S NORTHEAST IS ON BRINK OF NEW ROUND OF ESCALATION

Turkey’s statement about pressing on and complaining that this is all US and Russia’s fault for not fulfilling agreement to clear the “terrorists” out. Which means, as the author sees it:

By this statement, Turkey once again accused Russia and the US of not fulfilling their commitments in the framework of the safe zone agreement. The previous accusation of this kind against Russia was made by Turkey’s Foreign Minister, but then rectracted by the Turkish side as a kind of missunderstanding. The new accusations demonstrate that Ankara is once again ready for a more agressive push of its own agenda in the region. The Turkish side seeks to continue its military operation in Syria’s northeast and clear it from the Kurds, most of whom it describes as terrorists or terrorist sympathizers.

They also make a great point with respect to the Turkey=sponsor of terror issue combined with their plan to “resettle” refugees in northern Syria:

Another interesting point is that Ankara’s declarations that it’s planning to resettle around 2m of refugees in the cleared region. The interesting fact is that most of these refugees are military aged men that fled the war. A majoirty of these ‘refugees’ does have anti-Assad views. A notable part of them supports various radical groups like ISIS and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (linked to al-Qaeda) or even former members of this or other similar groups.

Therefore, if Turkey achieves a success in its plan to resettle these refugees in northeastern Syria, it will be able to create another strongpoint of its influence in the country.

First, I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that we are well past the point where there is any doubt in anyone’s mind that Turkey is sponsoring ISIS; the only distinction is whether or not an outlet reports it or lies about it. Or is CNN, which lacks sufficient news content to make a determination.

But the key insight here is that there is a bit of a political poison pill to Erdogan’s plan here for Assad and, by extension, Russia. Like, obviously, settling terrorists anywhere isn’t a great idea. But insofar as Erdogan has influence with ISIS types, that influence extends “above” or separate from state government allegiance, which is to say that not only is Turkey trying to rid the area of all the people who call it home, Erdogan also seeks to insert within Syria’s borders a political constituency loyal to him.

Whatever Russia and Assad seek, this complicates it.

Getting back to the sponsoring of terror angle and how it’s public knowledge, that actually sells the issue short: In fact, the war crimes committed by the Turkish backed militias are so well known that Turkey has succumbed to international pressure and taken urgently needed action to rectify the problem.

They’re imposing a code of conduct.

From the Not the Onion file:

Al-Monitor: Ankara seeks to discipline proxies in northeast Syria

Harsh international criticism of the militias’ actions has put Turkey in the crosshairs and appears to have led it to recently issue a code of conduct for the Syrian forces titled “Fighter, Not Killer.”

What? Were they somehow unaware that what they were doing is wrong? Or are they going to Urkel this one? One way or another, I don’t think Scout’s Honor is gonna get it done here. But what’s totally fucked is that this move underscores the fact that the international community knows what’s going on.

And this is what everyone came up with?

This is why women carry guns in Rojava.

The piece is a great read, full of details about the Turkish backed forces, including how they’re bearing the brunt of the casualties for Turkey’s war which people keep coming back to and what their plans for this are since Erdogan actually jerks them around quite a bit, but then also how they often operate independently to “advance their own interests.”

“Interests.”

There’s also a bunch of stuff about the specifics of this honor code thing, and then this gem:

In light of the indignation caused by SNA members filming executions they carried out, some of which were posted to social media, and their use of excessive violence during military operations, the code bans “taking photos and videos during military assignments,” stressing the importance of counter-intelligence measures.

Indignation? Indignation?

And the problem is the recording of atrocities? The recordings? Turkey’s really on the ball on this issue, clearly.

And then there’s some stuff about how this just goes to prove that Turkey is bad at using proxy armies, unlike Iran who is really good at it.

Who wrote this? I guess it’s true. But it’s an interesting criticism.

Anyway, towards the end, along with the analysis that Turkey lacks a deft touch in their mercenary zealot proxy terror operations, there is also this bit of analysis:

Why did Ankara publish a document laying out a code of conduct? The core reason is that with the center of gravity shifting to the diplomatic front, another large-scale Turkish military operation in northeastern Syria is no longer likely. The Western media’s ongoing interest in the campaign was another reason. In sum, with negotiations underway on drafting a new constitution for Syria, Ankara sought to avoid incidents that might put it in a tight spot or negative light.

Interesting thought. Is “public opinion” a euphemism for “the US Army”? Heh.

I’m kidding, of course. But if Turkey is suddenly sensitive to international public opinion, I’d want an explanation of what has changed, because that’s clearly a new development. I wouldn’t expect this to be a function of an internal shift, but rather things that restructure Turkey’s options. And the only things that I can think of that even could change this dynamic is moves made by Russia and the US.

Now, it’s interesting to see that there are different interpretations of what Turkey will do based on similar evidentiary findings. Everyone seems to agree that Turkey is making moves (or forebearing from moves) for political reasons. There is disagreement, though, as to whether this increased focus on politics is an attempt to gain more leverage to push other people around so that they can continue with their operation, or if this new emphasis is Turkey being responsive to existing political realities and pressures.

My POV: Why not both?

Or rather, I think under conditions of uncertainty, it makes sense for Turkey to invest in political capital. Then, if they get the opportunity, they can use it to continue to push people around and proceed with their operations. Absent said opportunity, they have more political capital to play the foreign diplomacy game and see what else they can get away with.

As per above, if they are suddenly responsive at all to public opinion, it would only be because the US or Russia (or both) did something that restructures the available options. I think that “something” they did was to behave in a way that increases uncertainty, putting Erdogan, at least temporarily, in a little bit of a wait and see mode,

Or, what this guy said—particularly in the context of the picture he’s responding to:

So it’s kinda incredible that everyone knows that Turkey is supporting ISIS and all they’ve come up with is an honor code. I  mean, I’m pretty sure we were already on the honor system and it wasn’t working out.

They were posting videos of their crimes for crying out loud. They really seem unwilling to relinquish their terror for anything less than death itself.

Of course, pretty much everyone but Erdogan finds this proposition acceptable.

So, long story short, it seems to me that some political uncertainty has been created for Turkey such that it makes sense to wait a bit, and if they have to wait, try to come up with moves and ways to claim political capital to use in the geopolitical aspect of this conflict.

NATO sure as shit didn’t do anything to pressure Turkey or create uncertainty; if anything, Turkey is pushing them around. So that leaves Russia or the US, and we still don’t know who hit the TFSA near al Bab the other night. But we do know that both of them must now, we just can’t believe anything either says, albeit for different reasons in each case—reasons we also may never know.

In that vein, let’s recall that Erdogan’s plan is and has always been predicated on Trump’s acquiescence, as everyone has known at every point along the way. So it’s interesting that Erdogan seems to be pushing the envelope a bit on the idea of “Trump gave me permission”:

I really don’t think I believe that. Not because it’s stupid and gives up all kinds of leverage and messes up half the alliances the US has—he’s done that with a Tweet.

I simply don’t see Trump endorsing someone else buying anything from someone else instead of him.

Like, that’s what he’s all about. It’s the only thing he’s all about. Like, buying and selling weapons and buying and selling oil appear to be the only two things that interest him in all of the middle east. Well, and threatening to ruin Turkey’s economy even though he decided not to, but that’s about money too. So yeah, I don’t see it. As China has recently suggested, he’s an idiot, but that doesn’t mean he’s actually unpredictable.

But either way, Erdogan is clearly putting out there the Trump permission thing, specifically about the S-400. Seeing as it’s widely believed the mystery air strikes were a response—one that could have been from either the US or Russia as each would benefit from imposing a more deferential attitude upon Erdogan after his sabre rattling. And here we are now seeing Erdogan implicitly being deferential by claiming that he had permission; it’s a statement that he was justified, but it also suggests that he understands that he will continue to need the acquiescence of the heavy hitters if he’s going to successfully complete his objectives.

So, given that conclusion—or, perhaps more accurately, assessment, seeing as there are a few possibilities—I’ll end this post with a peek at public opinion in America.

For a moment, I took some heart from the direction these numbers are trending.

And then I realized that 51% of Americans support withdrawal and 60% favor military support for the Kurds, so, once again, 2+2=apple.

Is Pence responding to or influencing public opinion? I mean, it seemed either silly or brilliant or a bit of both when he said we’d be doing both simultaneously. But maybe he was just truly, as per a good democratic system, simply reflecting our completely incoherent opinion?

I’ve never seen this before, but you know those reflective safety vests that cyclists wear so that cars can see them and don’t hit them or run them over?

Well, they come in MRAP sizes as well.

Somebody wants to make sure everyone knows they’re not part of the Turkish forces, and we know that the people of northern Syria have already figured out who was who, so this is, well, interesting.

In other news, Kurds are bothering the Hague. Message is probably something like: Do. Your. Job.

Law and politics. That always goes well for the Kurds.

See, I’m not saying that I think that our modern incarnation of identity politics is the most annoying thing in the world.

But I am saying that the global movement of resistance to fascism might

But why wouldn’t they be pissed?

I mean, bad guys are ransoming the bodies of their loved ones back to them for burial.

Jerks.

Now this here is subtle but significant: Enes Kanter Tweets a video not referring obliquely to Turkey’s human rights record, but rather addressing our failure with respect to the Kurds. This is an important shift.

And Kanter knows subtle.

Speaking of subtle, Assad apologists are trying to push the idea that being anti-Assad is misguided because the white phosphorous reports were bogus.

As though, as awful as such attacks are, this situation hasn’t moved on from that a teensy bit. Like, as bad as that is, things are that and worse. Hell, I’ll spot these guys the chemical attacks and he’s still an awful shit and a criminal (I’m getting annoying with term “war criminal.” Let’s not pump them up like that. He’s a punk (not the good kind) who should go to jail. Good talk.

Moving on: The Kurds are going to fight. Also: Water is wet.

So, looking a little bit down the road, the same crew that put out the hit piece on the Free Burma Rangers is hand-wringing about whether or not we should rebuild Syria for Assad.

There’s a bunch of this crap. My thoughts:

THE WAR IS STILL GOING ON ASSHOLES.

My apologies for yelling.

Jesus. I mean, fucking people. They put out the same-ass dittohead shit with each other. I wonder if they even know there is other news out there or if that’s simply not important to them. Or this is just how they do things, I guess. I read their stuff, but they all share the same garbage. Kyle Orton appears to be a ring leader or focal point guy. I keep forgetting who he actually is because… can someone be a raging schmuck? Because if so, that’s him. My opinion, of course: I haven’t tested this scientifically. I have not quantified the schmuckiness.

Meanwhile some of the heavy hitters show the world how little fucks they actually give and how real power operates.

Fuckin’… wow. War games with China in the middle of all this. Which is to say: They can.

Russian media put that out, so it’s hysterical. I don’t know know exactly what it means. I just know it’s hysterical.

Years ago, I attended a Halloween party at Hampshire where it was rated one of the tops Halloween parties in the country. I didn’t understand what that meant until I attended. When I left and went back to my own campus, I felt like I had left Halloween.

I imagine Rojava was a bit like that for International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women.

They’re coming out in droves. I mean, they have been for awhile all over the world. But yesterday was, of course, special.

I mean, they came out in Turkey too.

The juxtaposition is striking.

And America wants people to know—VOA is an NGO, but it’s mission is to present the US voice to world opinion. So the US wants people in other countries to know what’s going on, anyway. But the government doesn’t run the US media. Which is good, but man, if they could only just take a fucking hint.

The MSM does still employ, like, journalists and stuff, right? Are we really not going to talk about women in Rojava in the middle of a fucking civil war—a war—are freer than women living under the Erdogan’s regime?

Maybe I’m watching the wrong channel.

I mean, sure, there aren’t a huge of Kurds in the world, I guess (although Erdogan seems to think there are too many). But they’re having a fucking global protest.

It’s really something to see. Of course, many of them are taking inspiration from some women who, in their own way, really, really know how to protest the patriarchy.

One of these I’ll go looking for some of the local memes that picture a bunch of ISIS bros looking hard and mean mugging for the camera with pictures of YPG and SDF fighters in local dress with flair and dancing and shit and it says something like: Which group would you guess is the better guerrilla insurgency force?

And they definitely have a grievance.

So, remember that air defense system test Turkey conducted?

And then there was promptly air strikes against Turkish backed forces?

That wasn’t the only response.

This video is 3 minutes or so and, if you’ve been reading this blog, beyond the handwringing about American politics which is of course a real concern, this is really a fun watch.

“The most important story is the Bradleys. Combat power, that’s what the Bradley brings to the fight.”
— Lt. Col. Cynthia King (NYT Video)

Maj. Gen. Eric T. Hill stated the US are maintaining bases from Deir ez-Zur to Qamishli to Dereek and “throughout that expansive area.”

Looks like The US is keeping the northern border crossing to Iraq. (They never looked close to giving up the southern crossing.)

I mean, everyone knows where they are, right? I recall that being important to them. (Aren’t the Russians up there too? Huh. That should be fun.)

A couple parts of the NYTimes video are laugh out loud funny if you’ve been following the threads of the story here. This mismatch between the tone of the piece and what the soldiers are saying and how they are talking about it is striking. The soldier who acted bored and said he didn’t really know where the oil fields were while throwing a distracted hand wave vaguely to his left and didn’t stop walking slayed me.

“The Bradleys create a deterrent against… conflict. The bad guys see it and they don’t want to fight.”
— Lt. Jacob Moore

The dramatic pause is masterful. These guys are so fucking good.

And the Bradleys are great. They bring combat power. But you can also tell from the video that Apaches are still, it would seem, how a gentleman flexes.

Moving along…

Trump Threw This Mission Into Chaos. The Military Is Scrambling To Save It.
On a rare visit to U.S. bases in eastern Syria, we saw how President Trump’s message is being reinterpreted on the ground.

MANAMA, Bahrain — United States troops have resumed large-scale counterterrorism missions against the Islamic State in northern Syria, military officials say, nearly two months after President Trump’s abrupt order to withdraw American troops opened the way for a bloody Turkish cross-border offensive.

The new operations show that despite Mr. Trump’s earlier demand for a complete withdrawal of all American forces from Syria, the president still has some 500 troops in the country, many of them in combat, for the foreseeable future.

“Over the next days and weeks, the pace will pick back up against remnants of ISIS,” Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., the commander of the military’s Central Command, told reporters on the sidelines of the Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain on Saturday.

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1198967411153809410?s=20

It is still unconfirmed that the US conducted the air strikes. Nobody beyond totally partisan sites on “each side” have confirmed it was the US. Kurdistan24 often has big local news early, but can be somewhat sensationalistic about some things—although in fairness, the subject matter often lends itself to such. Also, it might just be because they seem to get a lot of really good news early. And one of their guys was also the guy the coalition flew around in a helicopter awhile back which illustrated the presence of US helicopters quite nicely, I thought, when broadcast on local television. The unfortunately named, in English anyway, Shiite News network appears to be some kind of Wikileaks outlet, so somebody wants us to think the US did it. But if it’s true it’s just a coincidence, i.e. some of these outlets will tell you the truth when they want to, but what they tell you isn’t always the truth, so you have to thread the needle a bit.

So anyways, it’s not confirmed the US conducted the air strikes. And if the US did conduct the air strikes, it is not confirmed that it was because of Turkey testing their new Russian S-400 air defense system against US made F-16s yesterday.

Although a lot of people on the ground think that there is a 2+2 kind of aspect to all this.

How do you like ‘dem apples?

The general sense I’m getting from the ground is that they feel that the US is the only force in the world that could conduct air strikes without anyone knowing who had done it. Which is fucking awesome. But we’ll see.

One thing is certain: There is a discernible uptick in trash-talking going on.

This is totally why I haven’t gotten around to watching the second season of Jack Ryan, by the way. Moving on.

I’m still not seeing confirmation that the air strike was conducted by the US—which may itself technically be a confirmation and a threat for that matter. When the US took out Osama bin Laden, there was a secondary message sent, which was to Pakistan. That message was that yes, the Night Stalkers can fly Navy SEALs to within a few blocks of your military academy without you even noticing.

In other words: Recognize.

I remember someone asking me why some people were saying the raid on bin Laden’s was “illegal.” I was like, “Because it was.” “I don’t understand.” “Well, it being illegal was kinda the point, since they were dealing with Pakistan who was not, at the time anyway, taking the fight with al Quada seriously. So.

Again, not confirmation and still some uncertainty. But a definite possibility that the US military has finally basically said, OK, you want to see trolling? We’ll troll.

But even if that’s not the case, whatever’s going on, as per above, has people feeling feisty.

And then again, there did eventually come this Tweet:

I do like how they circle the explosion in yellow. Just so we’re clear.

But then there’s this:

Somebody hit those tankers and bad guy bases.

Or stated differently: Odysseus did it. Or possibly Shaggy.

WAT?

Reuters: Turkey not resuming military operation in northeast Syria: security source

ANKARA (Reuters) – Turkey is fully abiding by the agreements it reached with Russia and the United States regarding northeast Syria and is not resuming its military offensive, a security source said on Monday.

Ankara reached separate agreements with Moscow and Washington last month to remove the Kurdish YPG militia from a swathe of land in northeast Syria bordering Turkey, which in return stopped its military offensive against the militia.

But Ankara has previously said neither Russia nor the United States had kept up their side of the deal, and threatened to launch a new operation. The security source said on Monday that Turkey was responding to attacks by the YPG in the region within the scope of self defense.

Oh, OK… Reuters is reporting that Turkey said they weren’t operating in northern Syria except on the rare occasion that they had to defend themselves from YPG terrorization.

It was wicked nice of Reuters to report to us that Turkey said that.

Well, whatever it is that is or is not happening, there is some aggressive state level trolling going on.

For a refresher, that’s the Russian S-400 surface to air system that got Turkey got kicked out of the F-35 program over buying. And they’re testing it again American built F-16s.

This isn’t the only saber rattling that Erdogan is doing though.

A deadline, huh? Is that like an ultimatum. Sounds bad, but that one guy seems to be taking it with good humor.

So is everyone else.

Although some people are still doing some serious thinking about the Turkish backed militia.

So that’s our basic geo-political update on the Turkish position.

And a strongly stated position it is. I think they made their point.

Counter-Point: Air strikes.

So this is a significant new ground development on two levels.

• We’re looking at the al Bab — Jarablus region (map below; Jarablus is nnorthof al Bab)
• They were night time air strikes near the eastern theater

So first, you can see from the map that this is the area between the fighting west of Aleppo and the war in the east. There was talk awhile back of the TSFA taking this connective area, but now it seems like some people may have different ideas, as those were almost certainly not Turkish air strikes.

Mostly, with some exceptions, TFSA don’t operate at night. The obvious reason is Turkish drone support is better during the day, but I would imagine fighting at night against an opponent that’s on their own home turf is unattractive to them as well.

But with these night strikes, nobody is sure who it was. It was dark. There are rumors of (US led) coalition, Russia, Turkey, and any other combination thereof, though notably nobody thinks it was SAA.

Also, as per the posts about legal destinations, one of two things largely understood about the attack by those on the ground is this: The attack must have been against ISIS or al Qaeda for the attack to have occurred as it did, since that’s who such things are supposed to be directed against—everyone else is in a cease fire, dontchaknow!

The other thing they think they know is kinda amazing, impressive, and perhaps not a little awesome.

It appears that the strikes hit some oil tankers that ISIS was using to smuggle oil. Also, they were robbing grain silos near Ayn Issa too. They really take this bad guy thing super seriously.

So anyway it was night, and there were heavy air strikes. Lots of uncertainty, but those two facts point to Russia or coalition. The gap between the differing ramifications of each possibility are obviously enormous.

But here’s the kicker, here’s what else they think they know:

• Trump and his stated oil policy are absurd.
• Even given that, there is no fucking way they will believe US troops are working with the Turkish forces in any way, shape, or form.

That blows me away. Even after all I’ve seen from these people. All the information and disinformation and sense of betrayal, and they take one look at the idea that their old friends in the US military would do that and—

Nope.

Fucking incredible.

Jet Fighters are Awesome!!

This cracked me up.

Testing? Seriously? Fighting Falcons over the capitol?

As much as I love the dramatic image in that Tweet, c’mon. Did they blame the explosions the other night on swamp gas?

Of course, it’s really just a 6 paragraph sniglet of an article, where three paragraphs are whining about being kicked out of the F-35 program and the last paragraph is about the US threatening Turkey with sanctions.

So it’s almost like the whole thing is clickbait to get people excited by a cool free fighter jet air show over the city and then rile them up about Death to America(TM).

In fairness, a Falcon buzzed my house in New Jersey the morning of Sep 11, 2001 and, in all honesty, it was fucking amazing. But that said, I still think this article is pretty disingenuous about what this is all about, yeah?

The US made those fucking planes, by the way.

So yeah, Turkish news: Whatfuckingever.

Speaking of which…

They Found the Stupid Ark Again.

FOXNews: Noah’s Ark ‘buried in Turkish mountains’ as experts say 3D scans will prove Biblical ship’s existence

Experts claim they’ve snapped underground images of a mysterious ship-shaped object discovered half a century ago in eastern Turkey.

Creationists have long claimed that Noah’s legendary boat is buried beneath the rocky spot, known as the Durupınar site.

So yeah, that FOXNews story needed reTweeting out ASAP, right?

Because that’s what this story lacked—a zillion fundamentalist Christian tourists in eastern Turkey and a goddamn ark.

Bear in mind that I don’t have a problem with Christians visiting sacred sites. I do have a problem with Turkey intimidating other people. I mean…

What could go wrong, though? Mt. Ararat is fairly far from Syria, right?

Not that I think there would be, but is there anything else to be concerned about if any action in this area picked up?

Gah!!

Man, that looks pretty close. How close is it I wonder?

I probably should have seen that coming. Of course you can’t get there from there.

Now, do I think that Turkey is going to go back to stomping Armenians and somehow use the site for leverage by claiming American evangelicals are at risk to form some kind of pretext for taking an aggressive defense of the pilgrims?

No.

Well, that’s not accurate. What I really mean isn’t even that I don’t know, but I don’t know of any reason they would. But it doesn’t strike me as something that Erdogan wouldn’t do.

And now I finally realize why that’s such small comfort to, say, Armenians. Or the Yazidi. Or pretty much anyone who kinda doesn’t want to get arrested, tortured, and/or killed for wearing what is determined to be culturally inappropriate pants.

Given how the Turkish media often passive aggressively insinuates stuff that the government is “thinking” about or however you want to put it, what might be standard clickbait to us, I could totally see that setting off local populations.

Not knowing which are the true causes for concern will only make things worse.

01m55s if autotrack function doesn’t work right:

Fortunately, there’s reason to believe none of this will actually gain much traction. From the linked piece.

Not everyone is convinced though, with geologists claiming the mountainous lump is simply an unusual mountain formation.

Oh. So this might all just be bullshit. Quel surpris.

But you can get a sense of the paranoia this kind of regime instills in the combination of ruthlessness, arbitrariness of rule, and creepy manipulation of history and myth to define and distort ideas about friend and foe.

Thank God Batman has been sited in the vicinity.

Hint: Check the map.