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Here’s a taste of the cease fire (video): Heavy fighting between SDF-backed Christian fighters from the Syriac Military Council and Turkish armed groupspic.twitter.com/PG524rxI5X — Wladimir (@vvanwilgenburg) October 30, 2019 Syrian regime forces rptdly withdrawn from Tal Tamr & Derbasiyah.@jenanmoussa "Turkey keeps on pushing in N Syria border area while Russia is not willing to standContinue reading “Oct 30 (4/7): Cease Fire… not.”

David Eubank of the Free Burma Rangers (humanitarian team) confirms that Turkey is just firing on whomever. Turkish tanks firing on Syrian Army position. October 28, 2019. Many casualties yesterday. pic.twitter.com/OP3nXle457 — David Eubank (@DaveEubankFBR) October 29, 2019 (2/2) The remainder of the video update. Full report coming soon @FreeBurmaRangrs pic.twitter.com/LSGT6qp2zp — David Eubank (@DaveEubankFBR)Continue reading “Oct 30 (3/7): Cease Fire Lite?”

Turkey is apparently advancing in some places. The Phase 3 they’ve mentioned of extending the safe zone to 100 km is something to keep an eye on. Fires have again been lit around Til Temir, in an attempt to obscure the view for Turkish airpower. Meanwhile in Derik, coverings are again going up to obscureContinue reading “Oct 30 (2/7): The Syrian Yoink”

I guess those here, as we don’t have an appropriate Trump thread for it—maybe it’s telling that there is no general TA foreign policy thread? Newsweek: TRUMP IGNORED SYRIA EXIT OPTIONS THAT COULD HAVE KEPT RUSSIA AT BAY, NSC OFFICIAL SAYS TRUMP IGNORED SYRIA EXIT OPTIONS THAT COULD HAVE KEPT RUSSIA AT BAY, NSC OFFICIAL SAYSContinue reading “Oct 30 (1/7): Are we TRYING to fuck this up?”

So, even by usual standards, there is a problem emerging: (There’s a neat double entendre in here if one relaxes the assumption that a state cannot be a terrorist while still controlling the police department.) So, pop quiz: How many armies can you bring into close contact before something goes badly? (This is about anContinue reading “Oct 29 (12/12): Too many men on the field.”

Reports of fighting breaking out between Assad’s forces and the SDF (and maybe everyone else?) DeierzZor24: The International coalition sends a strong message to Assad forces, and bombards their artillery in Deir Ezzor The International coalition sends a strong message to Assad forces, and bombards their artillery in Deir Ezzor Exclusive: This evening, Tuesday 29-10-2019, theContinue reading “Oct 29 (11/12): All Against All”

Talks happening. Of some kind. <DELETED TWEET> Da fuq? Well, anyway, here it is. CLEAR!! #Russia’s defense minister has confirmed the complete withdrawal of the #Kurdish-led #SDF from #Turkey’s southern border with #Syria, just hours before a deadline for their removal was due to expire. https://t.co/08yheAajxX — Rudaw English (@RudawEnglish) October 29, 2019 Newsweek: RUSSIA SAYSContinue reading “Oct 29 (10/12): Playing “In & Out” with the Russians”

Erdogan just delivered a President’s day address. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says the primary objective of everyone, except Turkey, who is interested in Syria is to control oil there pic.twitter.com/sMTymX95Hi — TRT World Now (@TRTWorldNow) October 29, 2019 Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar says Turkey and Russia will soon start joint patrols at theContinue reading “Oct 29 (9/12): Turkey: Selfless Force of Good in the World”

So basically, the closest thing there was to a theory of resolution was that the presence of armies associated with nation states would reduce the likelihood of violence because that states don’t want war between states. That’s just entirely not what’s been happening on the ground though. Warning: Graphic Content GRAPHIC: #Turkey-backed Syrian militiamen abuseContinue reading “Oct 29 (8/12): Your Hegemonic Stability Theory at Work”

Turkey using this as opportunity to crack down domestically. RUDAW: Turkey declares ‘special security zone’ in southeast Hakkari province ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – Five areas of Turkey’s Kurdish-majority province of Hakkari have been declared part of a “special security zone” by the governor’s office, citing “threats and attacks” by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). “TheContinue reading “Oct 29 (7/12): Out, out, damn Kurd.”